DraftKings NFL Pickem Week 3 Strategy
Using our new floor/ceiling projections, this season we will be able to simulate all of the DraftKings Pick ‘Em tiers. We’ll share the results of these simulations in a premium article for subscribers along with other ideas about attacking the Pick ‘Em slate each week.
This is my first year playing the PickEm games seriously, but Drewby outlined the reasons why you should be playing this format last season: https://dailyroto.com/nfl-dfs-strategy-draftkings-pickem/
Patrick Mahomes (KC) is rightfully the top projected QB in this tier by a pretty wide margin. Mahomes is in an elite context, surrounded by skill players Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and Kareem Hunt in an Andy Reid offense. With near league bests in terms of baseline YPA and team percentage of passing TDs, Mahomes and the Chiefs have gaudy projections with a slate high 31 team total at home against a 49ers defense ranking 31st in pass coverage through two games, according to Pro Football Focus.
With all that said, Mahomes’ ownership is still likely to outpace his actual probabilities of winning the tier, by default leaving the field lower owned than they should be. Tom Brady (NE) is our prefferred pivot off of Mahomes in a NE-DET game that has seen the total shoot up throughout the week, now leaving the Patriots with a team total that competes with the Chiefs.