DraftKings NFL Pickem Week 8 Strategy
Using our new floor/ceiling projections, this season we will be able to simulate all of the DraftKings Pick ‘Em tiers. We’ll share the results of these simulations in a premium article for subscribers along with other ideas about attacking the Pick ‘Em slate each week.
This is my first year playing the PickEm games seriously, but Drewby outlined the reasons why you should be playing this format last season: https://dailyroto.com/nfl-dfs-strategy-draftkings-pickem/
For the second straight week, Patrick Mahomes II (KC) is the clear top option in Tier 1 despite being surrounded by other elite QBs. Mahomes didn’t disappoint last week, putting up 36.82 DK points to lead Tier 1. He was, however, 64% owned in the Spy Single Entry contest. As strong of a play as Mahomes is, if you expect similar ownership, it might make sense to fade. There’s about a 50/50 chance that Mahomes doesn’t finish Top 2 at the position.
Of course, what makes this difficult, is that there are two sides of the equation. Not only do you need Mahomes to fail, but you need to pick your GPP pivot correctly. It’s pretty tight in terms of to win probabilities following Mahomes, as the next best option and the worst option are separated by just 3.4 percentage points. Since not only winning the tier matters, but by how much, I’d lean on our 75th/90th percentile projections, which have a preference for Aaron Rodgers (GB) or Andrew Luck (IND). When they hit their moderate ceiling, they’re scoring more points:
It is interesting that at our 95th percentile projections, things seem to even out, but we’re planning on the high end but reasonable to expect outcomes (occurring 10-25% of the time) and not an outlier outcome (occurring 5% of the time).
Outside of simply looking at this tier, it is noteworthy how much chalk the Spy Single Entry winner ate last week. It’s a good lesson in that while you have ample spots to create leverage in the tiers game, if you “game theory” every tier, the chances of you getting burned by good chalk increase exponentially: