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EPL DFS 5/21: You’ll Never Walk Alone
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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The Season Finale is here! I am part sad and part ecstatic about the season coming to an end. On one side of the spectrum, I’ll miss waking up every Saturday to play DFS EPL, and on the other end, I get a summer break from the hard work that is DFS preparation. It only takes a couple of weeks to miss the preparation aspect of it, but after a long stretch it will be good to get a break. As for this slate, the preparation is as tough as it gets.  We have ten games on Sunday’s Season Finale and from the 20 teams playing, only three have something to play for. That makes daily fantasy a huge issue, as we have a tough time predicting who will start for all the teams that have nothing to play for at this stage. It’s generally youngsters, but there will be surprises.

In cash games, you will want to focus on the three teams that have something to play for – Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal.  The three power houses are fighting for a top four spot. Arsenal host Everton, Liverpool are at home to Middlesbrough, and Manchester City travel to Watford. One of these stands out – Liverpool against one of the league’s worst teams in Middlesbrough. Liverpool love to attack when at home and have scored 42 goals in their 18 home matches. Against Middlesbrough, scoring shouldn’t be an issue. They are actually favored to score 3+ goals at odds of 8/13!! That’s one of the highest odds I’ve seen for scoring 3+ goals, and it’s not a misprice. Arsenal and Manchester City are also favored to score multiple, at odds of 11/10 and 4/5 respectively, while “nothing-to-play-for-Chelsea” are also very strongly positioned at 1/2. As you can see, there are plenty of heavily favored teams, so the ways to build are there. Let’s get a bit deeper and see where the value is.

Goalkeeper

Joel Robles ($4,000) – Robles will face plenty of shots when Arsenal come knocking on the door, but Everton are one of the teams that shouldn’t automatically concede three or four goals like Middlesbrough or Sunderland. They have a respectable defense, and although they don’t travel well, they should keep Arsenal at bay to where they are giving Robles enough save opportunities. For the record, I don’t think Robles keeps a clean sheet or gets a win, but I think there’s enough saves here to make him a cash game option.

Tournaments: In tournaments, you can pursue almost any goalkeeper on the slate. The goalkeepers from Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool all have great clean sheet and win chances, and are worthy of shots in tournaments despite the high price. Teams who are giving second choice goalkeepers a chance in the season’s last match also present value, as the goalkeeper position is very volatile and almost any $3,000 keeper has enough upside to be considered in tournaments. To put it shortly, I’m playing the cheapest and most expensive goalkeepers on this slate and avoid the mid-priced ones.

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