EPL DFS Picks 2/2: I Put On for My City
Welcome back to our Premier League Rundown EPL DFS Picks! I’ll be going through the best picks for the Tuesday slate on DraftKings and despite a number of new signings missing from the slate, there is a lot of choose from. First, let’s look at the win odds as always:
Manchester City are the biggest favorites here, but they’re playing away from home and a clean sheet is far from guaranteed, especially with Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala both ruled out. Manchester United are also huge favorites, but David de Gea faces similar risk with his defense struggling as of late. It’s very tough to trust either goalkeeper in cash, as it’s not out of the question they have a one save, one goal conceded match. Arsenal are favorites against Southampton, but the Saints have played well of late and could present some difficulties there. Overall it’s a very tricky slate, and playing cash games will be extremely difficult. I recommend sticking to GPPs in this one, and it may be one of those days where GPP cash lines are similar to 50/50 cash lines.
The Best of Both Worlds – Adrian ($4,200) – By best of both worlds, I mean the one who’s likely to get a high number of saves AND has a good chance at a win to nil. Adrian got his hand on six saves against Aston Villa last time out and I expect a similar amount of save chances this time around. He is also favored to win, and holds a decent chance at a clean sheet to be considered a cash game option. With how this slate is shaping up, I think I’d rather take my chances at someone like Adrian than Joe Hart or David de Gea, who both come with a fair risk of disappointment. On the other side of the pitch, Mark Bunn makes for a fair GPP option.
Pure Punts – Mark Bunn and Jack Butland ($3,200) – Both goalkeepers come at an extreme discount as $3,200 and there’s a reason for that. Both face a tough matchup, especially Butland, but both could get a great number of save opportunities. Last time Aston Villa and West Ham faced, Brad Guzan was in goal and recorded three saves with just one goal allowed, and although that wasn’t an impressive score, it’s not hard to imagine this time being a similar outcome without the goal allowed. Bunn is simply better than Guzan at this point in time and West Ham is still dealing with injuries. With Dimitri Payet back, they’re insanely more dangerous, but Bunn is worth a GPP punt at $3,200 and his ceiling is fairly high for the price.
The Top Choice – Christian Fuchs ($4,500) – The Leicester City defender has broken into the staring XI after a slow start to the season and is now on corner kick duty. The corners add extra value to an already good defender and he has been a consistent producer as of late. In a match that should be extremely attacking, Fuchs presents great value with a high upside.
Manchester City Exposure – Bacary Sagna ($3,600) – A fairly easy way to increase your Manchester City exposure is to get Bacary Sagna in if he starts. Sagna is not an offensive juggernaut but he gets involved in the attack and can easily crush value if he can pick up an assist. He isn’t necessarily a must own, but he is a good target in GPPs.
The Cheap Play – Aly Cissokho ($3,200) – Cissokho has helped Aston Villa’s defense in the past few weeks but he has also made good runs into the opposition half and has helped them in attack. He is averaging five crosses over his last four matches and he is likely getting another start today. I trust him in cash and GPP.
Defender Notes – Cedric Soares has been great but the matchup is very tough and he comes with a hefty price tag. He’s a full-on fade for me. Patrick van Aanholt has been incredible over the past few weeks but another goal is unlikely and he’s only in consideration in GPPs. Charlie Daniels’ price is finally increased but with his penalty kick duty he’s also a GPP option.
The Top Play – David Silva ($5,800) – With Kevin de Bruyne missing for an extended period of time with an injury, David Silva will have to pick up the slack. Silva is underpriced for the role he’ll have in Manchester City’s attack and he deserves a top mention here. Game log watching will put some people off Silva, but his role is drastically different without de Bruyne and the fantasy impact is much higher than people think. Fire him up in cash and GPP.
Another One – Dimitri Payet ($7,500) – Payet is absolutely incredible and he seems to be just fine after returning from injury. He is on corners, free-kicks, penalties, and just about everything West Ham do in attack. His floor is ridiculous and although his price is high, it’s well worth it. It will be hard to build cash game rosters without Payet, so I would recommend starting your lineups with him and working from there. He is a primary target in all formats.
A Cheaper Option – Eric Lamela ($5,400) – Lamela is a good way to get some much needed Tottenham exposure. Christian Eriksen has been absolutely fantastic but comes at a price close to Payet’s and I’d prefer Payet this week. That leaves us with Lamela, who takes some of Tottenham’s corners and has been involved enough in the attack to be worthy of consideration. He has 25 crosses and six shots over the last four weeks, which is a high enough floor for cash game consideration in a good matchup. Similarly, Dele Alli has put up an incredible 20 shots over the last four weeks, with seven them being on target. Alli’s numbers are likely to regress back to the mean, but in a matchup against Norwich, he’s worth including in GPP lineups and a secondary cash target.
Midfielder Notes – I would suggest largely fading the “8000” club. De Bruyne is obviously not playing, Riyad Mahrez has regressed and is not worth that high of a price, and Mesut Ozil’s role can decrease with Alexis Sanchez returning. They are all overpriced. Yaya Toure has been horrific but a match against Sunderland makes him worthy of a GPP punt. Jesus Navas is a cash game option if he starts. Value could open up in the Aston Villa – West Ham match depending on who starts, so monitor the lineups there. Michail Antonio and Carles Gil could be worth a shot if they were given starts. Value could open up depending on starting lineups in all matches, so monitor the starting lineups for cheap players starting in advanced roles. It’s almost impossible to predict lineups with the transfer market just wrapping up, so surprises could certainly arise.
The GPP Plays – Sergio Aguero and Alexis Sanchez are both in great spots for success this week. Both could explode for a hat-trick and it’s extremely hard to predict who to go after. I will personally have more shares of Sanchez than Aguero, mainly due to the fact I believe Sanchez will have a much lower ownership percentage and the fact he comes at $1400 cheaper. In cash games, it’s very, very difficult to fit both, so don’t be afraid to build a balanced lineup and leave these two as GPP options only.
The Value Play – Benik Afobe ($4,200) – Afobe’s price still hasn’t caught up to this production and coming off two consecutive matches with goals, Afobe gets a good matchup in Crystal Palace. Palace are second in the league in the last four gameweeks in goal attempts conceded and that increases Afobe’s floor. Feel free to use him in cash games at that price.
The Other Value Play – Jordan Ayew ($4,100) – Ayew has disappointed over the past few weeks but similarly to Afobe, he gets a great matchup. West Ham are the only team to concede more goal attempts than Crystal Palace in the past four weeks, a ridiculous 73 (second place Palace have conceded 65), and that makes Ayew a great GPP target. Don’t use him in the same lineups as Adrian, because the chances of both having great days are small, but one or the other should dominate in this matchup.
Forward Notes: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, and Olivier Giroud as are good of GPP options as any. With everyone focusing on Aguero, those two could go with really low ownership percentages. Enner Valencia is a great GPP play to slot next to an expensive forward, and could be considered in cash games in a great matchup. Charlie Austin got a ton of hype last week after scoring, but he is to be avoided in this one. There are no extreme punts that stand out at the moment, but monitor news for late scratches that could open up value.