EPL DFS Picks 3/19: Rondon’t Fade this Forward
Hello everyone. Welcome back to the weekly edition of our Premier League content. We took last week off due to the slate including only two games but we are excited to be back for this week’s games. The slate looks nice on DraftKings, with some decent-sized tourneys and three different King of the Pitch Qualifiers – a $27, a $200, and a $300.
I’ll certainly be playing at least one of those, and might have a few lineups in the $27, as I seem to like the slate a decent bit. Let’s look at the games:
Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City
West Brom vs. Norwich
Watford vs. Stoke
Chelsea vs. West Ham
Swansea vs. Aston Villa
There are some fun matchups here, including the Chelsea – West Ham match and West Brom at home to Norwich. Let’s get to the picks.
The Top Choice – Lukasz Fabianski ($4,200) – Fabianski gets Aston Villa. Aston Villa have been the worst Premier League team we’ve seen in years, as showcased by their 10.3 shots per match away from home. That number is a little cornering in cash games, because one goal from Aston Viilla could leave Fabianski with a very low fantasy score. Due to that, I prefer Ben Foster in cash games. Fabianski is listed as my top choice due to his extremely high chance at a win-to-nil, but Ben Foster provides a bit higher floor in case of conceding a goal.
The Next Best – Ben Foster ($3,900) – I wrote about Foster in the previous blurb but it’s also worth noting he saves you $300 from Fabianski. In cash games, I’m personally going to go with Foster and take the extra $300, and if I have leftover money, I will split my lineups between the two goalkeepers. There isn’t much to separate them, and I prefer to have some of both.
Goalkeeper Notes: Thibaut Courtois and Adrian are both fantastic GPP options, especially Adrian who is $3,400. Chelsea will likely attack a fair amount this match, but without striker Diego Costa, they don’t pose as much of a threat in front of goal, giving Adrian a high chance for saves. Heurelho Gomes is also a GPP option.
The Cash Choice – Aly Cissokho ($3,700) – The Aston Villa defender isn’t an all-star or anything, but he does enough to be a primary cash target in this slate. There aren’t many good defenders here, if any, and Cissokho provides you with enough of a floor to be a primary play. His lowest outcome in the last ten games is five fantasy points, which isn’t a killer at his price, and he has upside of 15 fantasy points in a mediocre matchup. Use him with confidence.
The GPP Target – Jose Holebas ($2,800) – Jose Holebas is a really shifty player that likes to get involved in Watford’s attack. A home matchup against Stoke City will allow him to go forward and contribute points on both defense and offense. I have him listed as a GPP target because of his upside, but I absolutely love him in cash games at that price and I think he is an essential building block in a slate that has a number of high-profile midfielders to spend up on. A strength of Holebas is being able to contribute in three major categories – crosses, shots, tackles won, and interceptions, which solidified his floor.
Defender Notes: Ashley Williams is a GPP punt play at an acceptable price. With no elite options at the defender position, we anticipate that a play may open up when lineups are announced in the morning. We will cover any values that may arise in our alerts. Christian Fuchs is a GPP option but he is too expensive for cash games and the upside in GPPs is a bit limited at that price point. Leandro Bacuna is GPP worthy if he starts. Branislav Ivanovic is a good pick in tournaments if John Terry starts, forcing Ivanovic back to the wing.
The Top Tier – Dimitri Payet, Willian, Gylfi Sigurdsson – The three midfielders are all great plays. Willian will carry extra load with Eden Hazard and Diego Costa both out, and he remains on corners for the time being. Chelsea should be on the attack for the majority of the game and Willian will be involved. He is also on free-kick duty, increasing his floor. Dimitri Payet is unstoppable at the moment, but an away match against possession heavy Chelsea is a tough place for him. His floor is insanely high, as is his ceiling, but the price and matchup make him a dangerous play. A benefit of the matchup is the scenario where West Ham fall behind early. In such a scenario, we can expect Payet to be on the attack often, increasing his fantasy value. Gylfi Sigurdsson gets a home matchup against the weak Aston Villa. The matchup is ideal and Gylfi is on fire right now. His price discount to Willian and Payet make him essential in cash games tomorrow. Fitting two of these guys in cash is the way to approach cash games tomorrow.
Primary Cash Play – Bertrand Traore ($3,300) – Traore is almost guaranteed to start tomorrow with Eden Hazard and Diego Costa both ruled out. Traore starting at striker or winger is irrelevant at this low price, and he is a primary cash game option as long as he starts. The Chelsea player has registered double digit points in both of his last two starts and is a great per-minute producer. The home matchup is just a bonus.
The GPP Play – Leroy Fer ($3,400) – Fer has been good for Swansea in recent weeks and should get another starts against Aston Villa this weekend. He is a high-upside player that possesses plenty of upside and is a great GPP play. Fer relies on goals and assists to reach value, so we wouldn’t recommend him in cash games, but don’t be afraid to fire him up in qualifiers and tournaments.
The Obvious Play – Salomon Rondon ($4,200) – Rondon gets a great matchup at home against Norwich City and should be highly owned. The upside he provides in the plus matchup is too hard to fade, especially in cash games, and I recommend owning Rondon heavily. He has scored three goals in his last four matches and has a decent floor between shots and crosses for his price. In GPPs, don’t be afraid to take shots with teammate Saido Berahino, who hasn’t played great but is cheaper than Rondon and also enjoys the matchup benefit.
Chelsea Starter – Whoever starts for Chelsea with Diego Costa out will be a fantasy option. If it is Bertrand Traore, he is already been talked about above, but there is a good chance one of Loic Remy or Pato starts up top with Traore on the wing, in which case both starters would be fantasy options.
A GPP Play – Emmanuel Adebayor ($4,000) – Adebayor has exceeded six points in just one game of his last seven (he played more than 45 minutes just three times). That’s not great, but Adebayor has goal potential anytime he plays and is cheap enough to where it’s worthy to take shots in GPPs and qualifiers. He will not be highly owned in what seems like a tough matchup against league leaders Leicester, but despite their attacking prowess, Leicester have been average on the defensive end. This is a good opportunity to be creative and take some shots at a high upside player.