EPL DFS Week 10 Picks: (Dieu)Merci for the Goals
Week 10 of the Premier League is upon us and we are back to give you a whole slate of information for this week’s matches. Like always, let’s start off by looking at the winning percentages, as calculated from SkyBet odds.
Looking at these games, the biggest mismatches appear to be Arsenal hosting Everton and Stoke hosting Watford. I’ll focus on both of these matches, as always, but I also have some good picks in the other games this week. Let’s get started.
Jack Butland – $5,100 – I think many will look at Petr Cech this weekend but I am going with Butland as my top choice. In the past three matches, Stoke have won 2-1, 1-0, and 1-0. They’ve only allowed four shots on target in the last two matches and have actually looked fairly good in the back. Even in the three matches before that, Stoke weren’t exactly horrible – allowing two goals away at Arsenal, one to West Brom, and two to the strong Leicester attack. They also face a fairly mediocre Watford side, who average a horrific 2.8 shots on target per away match this season. The sports book has this game as low scoring, and I think Butland is a safe cash game play at a $300 discount to Petr Cech. Since I mentioned this game as being low scoring, I think Gomes is actually a fantastic GPP option at $4,200. I wouldn’t use Gomes in cash as I think Stoke do have a goal in them, but Gomes has a big upside if he can keep them out.
Martin Olsson – $3,000 – West Brom have allowed a high number of crosses, especially to full-backs. Enter Olsson, who is not exactly “safe” but poses a fairly high upside. Norwich have allowed the most goals in the Premier League, so Olsson’s clean sheet chances are low, but his crossing and goal/assist potential gives him a fairly decent upside. He picked up two assists in the last match, and I think he sends in enough crosses to have a good chance at another. The upside here is immense, and he costs $3000. I think he is the top value play across all positions this week, and I can see myself using him in a few FLEX spots as well. Steven Whittaker possesses similar upside for just $500 more. I’d use both in GPPs. Hot take: They won’t be as highly owned as Arsenal’s defenders, and they present better values. Whittaker is also a good value on MondoGoal.
Jordan Amavi – $4,300 – As you know, Amavi is one of my favorite defenders in the Premier League and I use him almost every time he has a good matchup. Swansea have struggled as of late and Amavi has averaged 4.3 crosses and over a foul drawn per match. That’s a good floor to have with the upside of an assist or a clean sheet. I find Amavi to be safe for cash games and even better for GPPs. He’s never too highly owned, which is a bonus.
Riyad Mahrez – $10,000 – Mahrez is a bit expensive and this has been a total rollercoaster ride this season. He was fantastic, then his form dipped a bit, which led to him being benched. Last week, he was brought off the bench and completely changed the game, picking up an assist. I think he is highly motivated after being benched, and if he starts, he should be the top play this weekend. I only need one number to show you how good he’s been this season – 19.1 DraftKings points per season. Teammate Marc Albrighton is a GPP option.
Willian – $6,300 – Willian has six straight games with double digit points and Chelsea are finally playing better. I see them having another good game against an overhyped West Ham team and I actually like a lot of Chelsea’s players in GPPs. I don’t know if I trust any of them in cash, outside of maybe Willian, but I’d use any of Hazard/Fabregas/Willian in GPPs.
Xherdan Shaqiri – $6,200 – In six games this season, Shaqiri has 12 shots, 8 fouls drawn, and 19 crosses but has ended up with only one assist so far. He has been much better than his goal and assist total suggests, and I feel fine using him in both cash and GPP lineups this weekend at a cheap price.
Mesut Ozil – $8,700 – Ozil has had a fantastic three games, picking up three assists and two goals in that time frame. With Aaron Ramsey out, Ozil will see even more of the ball, and if Alexis Sanchez finds himself on the bench this weekend, I think Ozil will become an even better play. He has a safe floor between crosses and shots to be used in cash games.
Jamie Vardy – $9,800 – Jamie Vardy’s hot streak has to end somewhere, and he has an incredibly high finishing rate that isn’t sustainable, but I find it hard to fade him in a home match against Crystal Palace with his current form. He’s had at least four shots in each of his last four matches and that gives him a fantastic mix of floor and upside. I think he’s the cash game forward to have this week.
Alexis Sanchez – $11,700 – Alright, here is something you may find controversial. I don’t love Alexis Sanchez this week. I know he’s been absolutely fantastic, but Wenger mentioned in the press-conference this week that Sanchez was extremely tired after the last match and the international travel last week plus the Champions League match against Bayern Munich may have been too much for him. There is a good chance Sanchez starts from the bench, and that would obviously get me off of him. Outside of that, I think there are better plays this week in GPPs. Even if he starts, I doubt Sanchez is too active against Everton and I’m going to have less of him than the market. In cash games, it will be hard to fade Sanchez since he’ll be so highly owned and has a high upside by nature of being so good, and I think it’s fine to use him in cash as a safe strategy and win your matchups with the other players, but there are better plays in GPPs.
Dieumerci Mbokani – $4,700 – I think Mbokani will be under-owned this weekend. He wasn’t in the main slate last week and was overshadowed by his team conceding six goals, but the striker is in prime position for a big day. He has 7 shots in 155 minutes this season and has scored of his last two matches – the first one off the bench. The price is low enough to be able to put him in the slot even if you decide to go with Sanchez AND Vardy in cash games, and the upside is clearly there at the price.
Diego Costa – $9,200 – Like I said earlier, Chelsea are playing better and they face a West Ham team that is allowing 15 shots per match – fifth highest in the Premier League. He has incredible upside in GPPs and is a great pick next to Jamie Vardy. Stacking him with one of Chelsea’s midfielders can give you a fairly low owned pair that can really do damage in GPPs.
Good luck everyone!