Galin Dragiev highlights the best EPL Soccer week 15 DFS picks on FanDuel and DraftKings:
We have an interesting five game slate this weekend that features some chalky plays in cash games. The biggest favorite of the slate is Arsenal, who face Stoke City at home in what should be an easy sweep. Another big favorite on Saturday is Swansea, who face Sunderland at home. Swansea were just beat 5-0 at Tottenham, but they return home for the softest matchup in the Premier League and the value boosts immediately.
Outside of these two games, it’s a bit tricky. Manchester City face Leicester on the road and are fairly big favorites, but Leicester are not exactly a roll-over, especially at home. It’s hard to justify spending on Manchester City after getting Arsenal exposure and Gylfi Sigurdsson, who we’ll get to soon. An interesting game is Hull City vs. Crystal Palace where both teams cannot play defense and it may be an interesting game-stack in GPPs, including some cash value. Burnley host Bournemouth and have allowed the most shots in the league, which makes for an interesting game where Bournemouth are the favorites away from home.
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the strategy this week is to once again spend up on midfielders/forwards and save on defense. Defenders keep underperforming every week, especially on DraftKings, and there isn’t much to like there amongst the top choices in week 15. Let’s look at some actual plays on both sites…[sociallocker id=110379]
Ron-Robert Zieler – With Manchester away from home, I don’t anticipate them blowing out Leicester, but they’ll still be on the attack often. Zieler is just $4,000 and will have plenty of opportunities. If we get news that Kasper Schmeichel will return from injury, it’s a very easy switch on DraftKings, which allows late-swap in soccer.
Josh Tymon – Still only $3,400, Tymon gets a good matchup where he could join the attack for Hull City. His floor is very low, but he has a shot at a clean sheet and the home match will be a bonus for joining the attack. You’re basically only playing him and hoping for six points while affording expensive attacking players.
Matthew Lowton – A touch under-priced, Lowton has a good floor and a good matchup for what he provides. He is better in cash games than tournaments.
Gylfi Sigurdsson – Sigurdsson is the heart of the Swansea attack and you can disregard his four point performance in the last match. Swansea couldn’t get anything going against Spurs, but a home match against Sunderland will turn things around. Gylfi is a threat from free-kicks, frequent crosses, and shoots from distance. He has a safe floor and ceiling in a great matchup. He’ll be chalky, but I wouldn’t fade him.
Ryan Fraser – If Fraser starts, he’s a viable source of salary relief versus the team that concedes the most shots in the entire Premier League. Fraser should take corners and does enough all-around to be cash viable at just $4,100.
Wilfried Zaha – Zaha does enough to rack up points and a matchup against Hull City will help. He’s more of a tournament target, especially at this price.
Mesut Ozil – I don’t like spending $9,600 on Mesut Ozil in cash games, despite his corner kick duties, but I think in this matchup he’s definitely playable in cash. Arsenal will attack often and he’ll get involved. However, I still prefer him in tournaments and rather spend the extra money for…
Alexis Sanchez – Although a smaller floor than Ozil, Sanchez’ ceiling is much higher, and the chance he hits his ceiling is higher than Ozil’s. Sanchez will dominate Stoke City and it’s scary even considering a fade in this situation.
Robert Snodgrass – Snodgrass is on all sorts of dead-ball duties that increase both his floor and ceiling. Crystal Palace’s defense has been horrible as of late and Hull will take advance of it. Snodgrass has a higher chance to score than anyone in this game outside of Abel Hernandez and Christian Benteke, but his floor is much safer and he’s playable in cash.
Kelechi Iheanacho – With Sergio Aguero suspended, Iheanacho will likely start. Iheanacho has an incredible game-log in games he has started, but he is very goal dependent. At $7,200, it’s hard to trust him in cash, although he is a fairly decent way to get some Manchester City exposure in case the game goes into a blowout.
Lee Grant – Grant faces Arsenal, who are heavy favorites for the most shots on goal, which will give Grant a lot of save opportunities. Save opportunities correlate to points on FanDuel, where a save is three points and conceded goal is just -1. Grant is cash playable, although we prefer him in tournaments. For a much cheaper choice, consider Ron-Robert Zieler just like on DraftKings.
Nathan Ake – Ake is a very respectable $4,800 on FanDuel and he has racked up points the last three weeks. You’re not chasing the goal here, but you’re banking on him continuing his otherwise reliable production.
Marc Muniesa – Muniesa scored last time out, but without the goal he would have crushed value, regardless of whether or not he found the back of the net. He finds ways to contribute in defensive categories, and with Arsenal attacking all day, he’ll get plenty of chances to rack up points.
Gylfi Sigurdsson/Robert Snodgrass/Alexis Sanchez/Mesul Ozil/Kelechi Iheanacho – see above.
Yohan Cabaye – Cabaye is very reliable for a good floor due to his variety of statistical masteries. He contributes in both defensive and attacking stats, meaning he’ll get points regardless of game script. He’s cash viable on FanDuel.
Christian Benteke – Benteke is very reasonably priced here, at a little more than half the price of Alexis Snachez. Benteke gets to attack Hull City, who’ve allowed the second most shots of any team. He’s a fantastic pivot in GPPs off of Alexis Sanchez if you want to pay for a Iheanacho and stack up in midfield. The price also allows him to be easily paired with Sanchez, making him easy to roster, regardless of how you build.[/sociallocker]