EPL DFS Week 27 Picks: Vardy Party
Welcome back to our weekly Premier League content where we’ll discuss the best EPL DFS Week 27 cash and GPP plays of the weekend. Let’s get right into it.
The Top Choices – Kasper Schmeichel ($4,300) and Jack Butland ($4,100)– Schmeichel gets the top preference here above Jack Butland due to form, but both are absolutely great plays for both cash and GPP this week. Schmeichel gets Norwich City at home, who average a low 9.7 away shots per match and have only scored 12 goals in 13 away matches. Stoke get Aston Villa, who have scored ten goals in 13 away matches. Both of those are great indicators for the home teams, especially for a team like Stoke that plays much better at home than on the road. Both teams have at least a 40% chance a Win-to-Nil, and those are great chances to have for cash games. Choosing between them in cash games will come down to whether you can afford the extra $200 for Schmeichel.
The GPP Play – Heurelho Gomes ($3,800) – Gomes is a cheaper alternative to Schmeichel and Butland but also gets a nice home matchup against Bournemouth. Watford has struggled lately and Gomes has had a ton of save opportunities, and Bournemouth’s lack of finishers could help him here. They should get the win, so even if he loses the clean sheet, he can provide some nice upside in GPPs. There aren’t really any great cheap options at goalkeeper this week, so use Gomes in GPPs if looking for someone with lower ownership percentage.
The One to Play in Cash Games – Baba Rahman ($2,200) – John Terry is still questionable and if he sits out once again, we expect Branislav Ivanovic to start at center-back with Baba Rahman to come-in at left-back. Rahman is still extremely cheap at just $2,200 and he does enough across all categories to deserve a cash game roster spot as long as he starts. This one is fairly easy, and I shouldn’t need to persuade you further – if he starts, play him in all cash games.
The Value Plays – Stoke City Defenders – Stoke City only has two defenders priced at above $2,400 and one of them is ruled out. There should be at least two defenders starting at near-minimum price, and whoever starts at full-back is likely going deserve cash game consideration at that price. Stoke face a very poor team in Aston Villa that just lost a training ground match against their youth team. That should at least give Stoke’s defense a good chance at a clean sheet, which would be half the value needed for a near-minimum priced defender.
The Top Play – Christian Fuchs ($4,600) – As long as we play two near-minimum defenders, affording Christian Fuchs at $4,600 shouldn’t be an issue. Fuchs is expensive, but he has been absolutely fantastic in the past month or so and he brings an extremely high floor with his crossing, tackling, and interceptions. He also has assist potential and a great shot at a clean sheet, which increases his upside and makes him a great cash game option in what should be a one-sided match.
Defender Notes: Charlie Daniels is always a GPP option with his penalty-kick duty but it’s very hard to trust him in cash games at $4,000 when he’s away from home. Leandro Bacuna is in the same boat. Matt Targett has gotten too expensive for consideration, but Ryan Bertrand can be considered if he starts in midfield again. With the Stoke injuries this week, it’s really important to check starting lineups on Saturday and check for any value that may present itself before lock.
The Top Play – Riyad Mahrez ($7,700) – Riyad Mahrez is the best play of this slate as he faces a very poor Norwich side at home. Norwich have given up the most goals in the Premier League, while Leicester City have score the most, making this an extremely one-sided affair. We expect Mahrez to be very involved in the attack and his GPP potential is extremely high. With him not being on corners nor penalty-kicks, it’s a bit hard to trust him in cash games at this price, but fire him up in GPPs at will. A much more affordable option is Marc Albrighton, who comes in at $6,200 and provides a higher floor than Mahrez.
The Mid-Range Value – Xherdan Shaqiri ($5,300) – Shaqiri is quite affordable and gets the benefit of playing a home match against Aston Villa. Aston Villa have no one capable of tracking him, and Shaqiri’s high participation in Stoke’s attack makes him a great cash game target. He crosses and shoots at will and in this easy of a matchup, it would very unwise to not roster Shaqiri this weekend.
Midfielder Notes: There isn’t much to like in this slate. A lot of the good players are playing away from home, so it makes things tricky. James Ward-Prowse is on corner kick duty whenever Dusan Tadic is on the bench, and that has been the case as of late. If Ward-Prowse starts without Tadic, he can be considered for cash games in a home match against Chelsea. One option to spend up on is Junior Stanislas. Stanislas has been on corner duty and faces a fair matchup in Watford. James McClean, a fan favorite, was only given 57 minutes against Everton and 75 in the FA Cup against Reading, but I expect him to play the full 90 here, at least close to it. He is an option that should deliver an insane amount of crosses if given the full match. If you want to take the risk of 90 minutes, he should be in cash lineups. Chelsea’s Willian has conceded some of his corners to Fabregas in the past two weeks and that hurts his value. He has a very tough matchup away from home and is a full-fade at $8,200. Yohan Cabaye is a great GPP target and is rosterable in cash games if you want a higher upside than Marc Albrighton. Yannick Bolasie is cheap enough to be considered in cash games with a high floor that comes from shots and crosses. The tricky part is that he has been injured and just returned in the FA Cup on Sunday in a 15-minute bench appearance. If he starts, I think he’s an option even with the risk of being subbed.
The Top Play – Jamie Vardy ($7,400) – Jamie Vardy is really expensive, and I generally hate paying this much for a striker who doesn’t cross, but the slate and matchup here leave us with no other options. Vardy is a must-roster in cash games against a very weak Norwich side, and his upside is too big to fade. There are almost no other good options at forward, leaving him with what should be very high ownership. Vardy can be faded in tournaments, but he should be a staple in cash games.
The Next Best – Troy Deeney ($5,500) – Watford play Bournemouth at home and Troy Deeney gets the bump over Odion Ighalo due to price and penalty duty. Deeney has a very low floor, but he is cheap enough to be considered in cash games regardless. A slate that doesn’t feature a lot of options at striker makes you play with a little more risk, and Deeney is good enough for us to take on that risk at his price. His teammate Odion Ighalo is one of the best GPP options on this slate.
The Punt Play – Mame Biram Diouf ($3,300) – Diouf has not been good. He isn’t even a great fit at Stoke, but if he starts, he is a good enough punt play for his low price of $3,300. The matchup against Villa helps, and his upside is big for the price. Diouf should be considered if starting, but understand that the risk is certainly there.
Forward Notes: Diego Costa is a fine GPP target as he’s on a nice streak, but the matchup makes him unusable in cash games. Marko Arnautovic has a higher floor than Diouf but is significantly more expensive and is a GPP only option. Bojan is on free-kick duty and in a great matchup, is automatically a GPP option at that price. Salomon Rondon is cheap enough to be considered in cash and is certainly GPP worthy. Saido Berahino has been extremely poor but is a fine punt play at the price.