EPL DFS Week 4 Picks: Splurge on Serg
It’s week four already and we have the most stacked slate of fantasy Premier League this season. The amount of great players in this slate is astronomical and we’ll try to find some values here that let us play as many of the top guys as possible. Let’s get started.
The Cash Game Play – Joe Hart ($5,800) – Manchester City are at 78% chance to win and at 50% chance to get a clean sheet, according to sportsbook odds. That’s an impressive 6.4 expected points for him from just bonuses (expected points are calculated by multiplying the bonus points by the chance of the event happening). Even if he doesn’t get the clean sheet, Hart has a 80% chance at conceding one or less goals. Those chances are just too high for the Manchester City goalkeeper to be avoided in cash games, and even though he’s expensive, he’s worth it. Bonus: he has earned double digit DraftKings points in all three matches this season. Double bonus: he faces a Watford side that has scored a total of two goals in three matches.
The GPP Only Play – Brad Guzan ($4,500) – Guzan has 51% chance at a win and 45% at a clean sheet and I like his chances against a poor Sunderland team that doesn’t travel well. Guzan has been solid this season despite big question marks that surrounded his future this summer and his decent performances have helped Villa only concede three total goals to Bournemouth, Manchester United, and Crystal Palace. The most intriguing aspect for Guzan this week is the matchup, but his performance hasn’t been horrible either. Just a good overall value at the price.
Another Option – Thibaut Courtois ($5,100) – He’s been solid and I think this is the week Chelsea’s defense recovers. It’s a risky play, but the upside is there as well.
The Top Play – Aleksandar Kolarov ($6,300) – Kolarov is the most expensive defender in the slate but I don’t see how one fades him in cash games. He has 18 crosses in three matches to go along with four fouls drawn and four shots. He has a great chance at a clean sheet and should be on the attack all match long. His lowest output this season was 14 points. I generally never advise going with a defender in the FLEX spot, but I think Kolarov is worthy of consideration in the FLEX if you are stacking another defense in a GPP, or as a way to save money for expensive plays. He’ll be highly owned, but don’t leave him out of your cash lineup. A cheaper option from Manchester’s defense is Bacary Sagna, who is worth a punt in a few GPPs and in Manchester City stacks.
The Value Play – Jordan Amavi ($3,300) – Amavi has been solid for Aston Villa this season but his price is still relatively low. Finding values this week is especially important with all the talent available at midfield and forward and I like Amavi’s chances of getting at least six points again. He has 22 points in his first three matches, and despite that not being fantastic, it’s good value for his price.
Before I get into individual midfielders, let me preface this section with the fact that there are MANY really good midfielders playing in this slate. In GPPs, you shouldn’t stick to just two or three, but have multiple lineups with different options. In cash games, things are a little easier, so let’s start with that.
The Cash Play – Riyad Mahrez ($8, 700) – Mahrez is still not the most expensive midfielder although he should be. The Algerian has set the league on fire so far and is averaging an insane 4.7 shots, 4.3 crosses, and 3 fouls drawn per match. Those numbers provide a floor that’s too good to pass up in cash games, and I think he’s by far the safest bet this weekend. He also provides a huge upside, so this is a win-win situation for those who select him. I never recommend 100% exposure for any player on a given weekend, but I think you could go 50-70% exposure to Mahrez and feel pretty good this weekend.
The GPP studs – Eden Hazard and David Silva – These are the two most expensive midfielders in the slate and they are both worth their money. They both provide phantom points from crosses and shots, and they both face easy matchups this weekend that can see their teams score a lot of goals. I know you guys want me to choose between the two, but I think they’re of approximately equal value and you should own shares of both. Hazard is a better option by a little, but his price reflects that pretty well and you really can’t go wrong with either one here. The only way to go wrong is to completely fade one of them.
The Value Play – Xherdan Shaqiri ($3,900) – Shaqiri opened up his Premier League account last weekend with an assist and 13 DraftKings points. He faces the second best matchup of the slate this weekend in a West Brom side that has allowed 17 shots per match, and he loves to cross and shoot. At this price, he is really a no-brainer, in both cash and GPPs. With so much value at the top this weekend in both forwards and midfielders, Shaqiri allows you to have multiple studs on your squad.
The Extreme Value Play – Bryan Oviedo ($3,200) – This is tough for me to recommend as Oviedo is likely to start at left-back, but he’s listed as a midfielder, robbing him of a potential clean-sheet bonus. Even with that, he’s a very real option at that price. Oviedo is still working on his match fitness and might not start, but if he does, he lets you stack multiple high-end forwards. If you team him up with Shaqiri, you could have two top strikers and Eden Hazard in the flex. That kind of upside shouldn’t be avoided in GPPs. I wouldn’t use Oviedo in cash, but I think he’s a valuable asset to consider in GPPs in this particular slate.
The Top Options – Sergio Aguero ($11,100), Diego Costa (10, 800), Christian Benteke ($9,500) – This is another tough choice here, as all three of these guys face some fantastic matchups. Let’s look at them one by one.
Aguero – Aguero is the best player playing on Saturday and faces Watford, who although have been respectable on defense, are very unlikely to keep Manchester City out. Aguero is generally active in both scoring and assisting (26 goals, 8 assists last season), and he shoots and crosses enough to have a safe floor. I think he’s the cash play this week, especially since he’ll be owned by at least 60-80% of managers. He has the skills to make you pay if you don’t own him, and if he doesn’t score, you’ll still be able to cash in 50/50s if you pick the rest of the squad right. To summarize, Aguero is the cash play amongst forwards, and he should be considered in GPPs in at least 30-40% of your lineups.
Costa – Diego Costa was much better last match than in the first two, and Chelsea are finally turning around. They are a great home team, and return home to face a Crystal Palace side that can be vulnerable in the back. They’ve allowed 16 shots per match so far this season, and Chelsea will break them down. Costa should be in some of your GPP lineups, and if you’re feeling adventurous, he could be your cash game play ahead of Aguero.
Benteke – Now, Benteke isn’t as good of an option as the above two, but also has a fairly easy matchup against West Ham’s second tier goalkeeper in Darren Randolph. Benteke could easily score a brace, and you need to have a few shares of him in GPPs. I don’t think he should be considered for cash games at that price.
The Mid-tier Value – Mame Diouf ($6,500) – Diouf was great against Norwich and Tottenham, scoring against both, and he almost netted against Liverpool in week one as well. He gets an extremely good matchup as we discussed earlier, and West Brom don’t figure to have the personnel needed to contain him. I think Diouf is a solid option in cash games, alongside Aguero, and if you play him and Shaqiri together, you could easily afford Aguero and another star such as Costa or Hazard. Diouf will highly owned by me this weekend.
The GPP Only Play – Rudy Gestede ($4,500) – Yes, I’ve recommended an Aston Villa striker in a slate that features Diego Costa, Christian Benteke, Harry Kane, and Sergio Aguero, but that’s the power of Sunderland. Sunderland have allowed 19 shots per match, as well as eight goals in three matches, and Gestede will get to feast on that defense in week four. The problem I have with Rudy is that he doesn’t earn any points outside of goals, so he could easily blank here if he doesn’t find the back of the net. That’s why I have him as a GPP play only. He should be in a few GPP lineups and his price will allow you to stack the likes of Aguero, Eden Hazard, and David Silva in the rest of your squad. If he scores, he can easily be a part of a GPP winning lineup at that price.
Pro-tip: With the amount of value at the top of this slate, I think the way to go this weekend is certainly stars and scrubs, especially in GPPs. If you play both Shaqiri and Oviedo, you could fit all three of Aguero, Costa, and Benteke in a lineup. Play Gestede and Shaqiri, and you could find a way to fit two top strikers and either Hazard, Silva, or Mahrez. The options are limitless in this slate with the amount of good values that I talked about, so you should really try to maximize your exposure to the top values that are Hazard/Silva/Mahrez/Costa/Benteke/Aguero.
Good luck everyone!