EPL DFS Week 8 Picks – We Built This City on Aguerooooooo
Welcome back to another week of our EPL DFS content. We had an overall great week here at DailyRoto with UEFA Champions League and now we’re ready for another week of Premier League action. Let’s get right to the good stuff – winning percentages.
We have a ton of close matches this week and then we have Manchester City hosting Newcastle. That match sees Manchester City as a HUGE favorite at 77% chance to win and as you might expect, we’ll be stacking that game heavily. Those guys are expensive, but they’re going to be must owns this weekend. First up is Hart.
Cash Game Option – Joe Hart – ($5,700) – I hope by this time in the season I don’t have to explain why Hart is the best option here. Best chance at clean sheet, best chance at a win, safest bet by a mile.
The GPP Guy – Brad Guzan – ($4,800) – Guzan is the second best option for me this weekend. He faces a mediocre Stoke City team at home and with Xherdan Shaqiri doubtful for the weekend, Stoke’s attack might really suffer. I will be a bit more concerned if Mame Diouf returns to the starting lineup, but I think Guzan has a solid chance at a clean sheet and a win here.
The Top Choice – Jordan Amavi ($4,500) – I’ve had Amavi here a few times already and he’s been great almost every time. He crosses a lot more when he’s at home and that’s likely because Aston Villa enjoy more possession in home matches. The crossing gives him a nice floor, which is important for cash games, while his clean sheet and assist opportunities are great for his ceiling. Alan Hutton, who has been starting on the other side, is a crossing machine and is also an option.
Aleksandar Kolarov ($6,600) – Kolarov is expensive but he’s the best defender in the slate and should be considered in cash and GPP lineups. He is good enough to be considered at FLEX, especially in a slate that doesn’t feature a ton of great forward options. I would even consider Kolarov at FLEX in cash games if you want to heavily stack Manchester City here.
Charlie Daniels ($3,600) / Simon Francis ($4,400) – The Bournemouth duo play at home and come at a fairly cheap price for what they provide. They both cross enough to have a safe floor and even though Watford are not a bad team, they only average 10.3 shots per match away from home, a number low enough to make me confident Bournemouth won’t concede more than once for at least a 1GA bonus.
Manchester City – David Silva, Yaya Toure, Kevin de Bruyne, Raheem Sterling – These guys get a fantastic matchup against Newcastle at home and are expected to win comfortably. The concern I have is that they might be tired from their midweek travel in the UEFA Champions League and some guys may get rested. David Silva just got 60 minutes in midweek and didn’t look great fitness wise so he is at high risk to get rested. Once we see the lineup on Saturday, I think it’ll be wise to have at least one Manchester City midfielder in all your lineups. I’ll rank them below.
- David Silva
- Devin de Bruyne
- Yaya Toure
- Raheem Sterling
Jeremain Lens – ($6,600) – Lens has been kind of forgotten in the past few weeks but he finally gets a favorable matchup at home and I think he has a great chance at quality points this weekend. He has 13 shots on the season to go along with 29 crosses and 16 fouls drawn, so he has a higher floor than you would think. West Ham are not as good as they seem and that showed last weekend against Norwich. Lens is a good value to plug in next to Aguero and the Manchester City stars.
The GPP Plays – Jack Grealish and Scott Sinclair – I like to have some Aston Villa exposure in GPPs this weekend as I think they’ll get at least a goal against Stoke City and there could be value there with how cheap everyone is. Stoke City give up 15.6 shots per match and Aston Villa should at least get enough shots on target to have a good floor for their main attackers. Use them in GPPs only.
Don’t Fully Fade – Riyad Mahrez ($10,100) – Riyad Mahrez has double digit points on DraftKings in every game this season except the one where he was pulled out for injury. I don’t think he’s as a good of an option as the Manchester City guys but he’s certainly worthy of consideration in a match that is expected to be at over 2.5 goals. His shots and crosses give him a greart floor and I think he’s even an option in cash games tomorrow. At the same time, you can use Nathan Redmond and Robbie Brady in GPPs on the other side of this high-scoring match.
Tough to Call – Sadio Mane ($9,000) and Dusan Tadic ($9,600) – I don’t trust these guys in cash playing away at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have been horrific in defense but they’re still capable of defending at home and I don’t really see a Southampton stomp here. At the same time, if Chelsea start Branislav Ivanovic once again, this could be a bloodbath there with Mane and Tadic attacking him all match long. I’ll own these guys in GPPs but I don’t think I trust them in cash games.
Punt Play – Manuel Lanzini ($4,000) – Purely a punt play that has a good matchup.
The Top Choice – Sergio Aguero ($11,000) – Aguero is only $11,000 this week and I think that’s worth every penny in this matchup. There are no other good strikers in this slate that have a good matchup and although I rarely advocate an ownership percentage higher than 60%, I think Aguero is a must own this week. I’ll have him in over 80% of my lineups.
The Big Man – Rudy Gestede ($5,300) – Rudy Gestede scored twice on Liverpool last week and although I’m not chasing points here, he has a great matchup. Stoke City concede a ton of crosses and Aston Villa will probably send the ball into the box over and over again until Gestede does something.
The Last Resort – Glenn Murray ($5,000) – I don’t love Murray in this matchup against Watford but he does play at home and he is extremely cheap. I’m going to have him in a few lineups mainly as insurance, as he’ll be highly owned and I don’t want to get burned if he gets on the score sheet.
The Solid Guys – Diafra Sakho and Jamie Vardy – Vardy and Sakho have been solid this season and although they both play away from home, I don’t mind using either in fantasy. Both should be on teams that’ll score this weekend and they can be involved via a goal or an assist. When using Sakho, consider stacking him with Dimitri Payet.