Galin Dragiev highlights the best EPL Soccer week 11 DFS picks on FanDuel and DraftKings:
Last week was interesting as FanDuel launched soccer. I covered a lot of the differences in scoring last week, but this week I want to take a look at something in a bit more depth – chances created. What are they? How are they defined? Should we look at them? They’re worth three points after all.
To first define them, chances created are, according to OPTA: “Assists plus Key passes”, where:
- Assists: The final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the recipient of the ball scoring a goal.
- Key passes: The final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the recipient of the ball having an attempt at goal without scoring.
Basically, to put it in simple terms, chances created are any passes that result in a shot or a goal.
How common are they?
Some of the leaders in chances created – such as Dimitri Payet, Willian, Fabregas, De Bruyne, Tadic, Silva, Puncheon, Coutinho, etc. are averaging in the range of 20-30 minutes per chance. In a 90-minute game, we’re looking at something in the range of 3-4 chances created on average for the elite players, which is a nice boost when they’re worth 3 points a piece.
With that in mind, keep chances created in consideration. They provide more towards the upside than the floor of a player, although elite passers/playmakers do get a boost in floor from chances created. It means we should target players who have the ball often, and those who average high touches per game in the final third.
With this in mind, who let’s look at some target plays on both sites this week. Keep in mind chances created are only a stat on FanDuel.
Dimitri Payet – The star has been a bit quiet in recent games but gets an uptick from the matchup and remains on corners and free-kicks. He’s rested this week and should run the attack. With DraftKings’ recent change to downgrade prices of the big players, Payet is worth every penny.
Victor Moses – There is a risk of Moses not starting this week, which obviously would rule him out of consideration, but if he starts, he does too much at that price to be ignored in a plus matchup. He would be cash viable if he starts.
Aaron Cresswell – Cresswell picked up a red card in his first game back this season but has been effective on the left side overall. The card was an anomaly as he doesn’t one to usually get in trouble and he is cash playable at this price and matchup.
Matthew Lowton – Unfortunately an option on a slate that doesn’t feature too many good defenders.
Defender Note – Anyone under $3000 that ends up starting will be an option as a punt play due to the lack of great defender options and the fact there are some fantastic plays at other positions. Check in on Twitter tomorrow for an update on whether any good defenders pop up.
Diego Costa – Premier GPP play at a low ownership and an acceptable price for someone with a two goal upside.
Eden Hazard – Hazard has scored in his last three games and has been simply fantastic. He’ll usually get in 3-5 shots and 3-5 crosses for a floor of 7 points, which isn’t ideal but won’t kill you in cash. He is cash viable for those who like a bit more risk.
Manchester City – Aguero is a premier GPP option while Kevin De Bruyne is cash viable in the biggest mismatch of the slate. Gundogan is not a cash play – GPP only but a good overall fade. Sterling is a great GPP play at low ownership.
Tom Heaton – Burnley can’t keep anyone from shooting and Heaton is racking up saves like crazy. Palace will shoot often, and he’ll get all the opportunity for saves once again. Lee Grant is in a similar situation. We also like Artur Boruc’s upside.
Victor Valdes – As I mentioned last week, we are chasing saves and ignoring everything else for goalkeepers on FanDuel. Top save upside this week is Victor Valdes and he’s the top overall goalkeeper play.
Steve Cook – good matchup and Cook contributes in many different categories. He’s a safe play at 6600.
Charlie Daniels – Daniels can have a bit of a low floor, but his ceiling is ridiculous. He joins the attack quite often and contributes through assists or goals, which makes him a 40-point upside defender at a very reasonable price.
Dimitri Payet – We talked above how chances created help elite passers have a better floor. Payet will create chances, score, assists, and pass often. He also gets his fair share of shots on target. The floor here is ridiculous and so is the upside.
Joe Allen – Never thought I’d have to do this, but here I am recommending Joe Allen. His skill-set is great for this scoring format and he is on a great run at the moment.
Yohan Cabaye – A much better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, he is the type of player who benefits from this scoring format. The floor is very safe.
Sergio Aguero – Very expensive, but Aguero can meet value on shots on goal alone against a poor Middlesbrough team. He will be active and he’s worth the high salary. Diego Costa is in the same boat.