VICTORY! For the first time in this wonderful simulation freeroll season, I cleared the cash line and added a cool $0.10 to my FanDuel bonus money. Reggie Jackson (45.5) led the way from a value perspective while James Harden (60) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (58.8) gave the consistent strong bases we’ve relied on in this space. Christian Wood (20.3) was a disappointment and trailed his teammate Blake Griffin (34.2) who was in the winning lineup, but the choice between the two still looks like an easy one for this format.
Christian Wood ($4,900) – 30 points = 39 percent, 40 points = 16 percent , 50 points = 2 perceny
Blake Griffin ($5,100) – 30 points = 33 percent, 40 points = 6 percent, 50 points = 0 percent
Cashing was a rewarding feeling as I think the approach we’ve been taking in this space is one that is mathematically sound and not broadly used. Reggie Jackson was under 3 percent owned last night and we noted his standout upside profile (35 percent of the time > 30 FanDuel points). Jackson hit his absolute ceiling game 45.5 (February 5th against Phoenix) but was one of the few players priced below $5,000 on the slate that had mid 40s upside at the guard position.
The feeling of accomplishment is one that resonates with my early days of playing DFS. When DFS was new for me, I was simply trying to find indicators that suggested I was improving. Given the way our brains tie rewards to accomplishment, it was these small victories that felt like progress.
Looking back, I was fairly naive in my approach to DFS. I thought the only evaluation of my progress was through my results. I thought teaching what I learned was something that would suit an audience of people who enjoyed playing the game as much as the incentives behind it. In general, I thought pretty small.
Over time, I’ve realized there are better methods for evaluation than purely your results. Examining how frequently you’re able to place lineups in the Top 1 percent has been a helpful indicator for me when trying to turn a highly variant short-term set of outcomes as a mass-multi entry player into a lower volatility long-term stream of returns. Comparing the quality of an individual play to their ownership and correlation value in addition to instead of solely by their raw projection. Understanding the ranges of outcomes on individual players but lineups as a whole. All of these were bigger ideas it would take myself time to find. Similarly, understanding the audience I was hoping to educate (9-5ers without enough time to research) was going to be just a piece instead of the whole pie. You live, you learn, and you adapt. Our subscriber base still has some representation by the people we were originally geared towards helping but over the years younger generations with an eye on getting rich quickly and other professionals have taken their seats at the table as well. It’s a group with more diverse interests than simply enjoying a hobby with their disposable income.
While these FanDuel simulations aren’t going to put food on the table for anyone and thus may attract a smaller percentage of the DFS industry, they do attract the part of the industry we were founded in trying to serve. Trying to figure out the puzzle of DFS is fun. Competing with others and discussing the different approaches you’re taking can be communal. While it’s a game that often will drive others apart as they compete against one another, I’ve always found Fantasy sports as a way to bring people in my life together. So I’ve enjoyed these games and I’ve enjoyed writing about them because a part of me feels like I’m back writing for the people who I always wanted most to help.
So today I’m in a celebratory mood. I’m celebrating the 10 cent wins and the fun of playing the games and sharing the experience with those who love it just as much as you do.
Let’s dig into Tuesday’s slate!
FanDuel is starting to mess with the schedule a bit so we have two slates (3:00 PM EST and 7:00 PM EST). We’ll focus on the 7:00 PM EST slate which seems to be a mix of games that were originally scheduled for 3/25.
The value stars:
PG – Reggie Jackson (LAC) – 6x rate = 44 percent, 7x rate = 35 percent
PG – Mike Conley (UTA) – 6x rate = 42 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
SG – Josh Richardson (PHI) – 6x rate = 42 percent, 7x rate – 15 percent
SG – Malik Beasley (MIN) – 6x rate = 33 percent, 7x rate – 26 percent
SF – Mikal Bridges (PHO) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 31 percent
SF – Joe Ingles (UTA) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 22 percent
PF – Frank Kaminsky (PHO) – 6x rate = 38 percent, 7x rate = 34 percent
PF – Paul Millsap (DEN) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 21 percent
PF – Dario Saric (PHO) – 6x rate = 35 percent, 7x rate = 25 percent
C – Aron Baynes (PHO) – 6x rate = 36 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
C – Kelly Olynyk (MIA) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
Tier one – 60 points > 30 percent of the time
PG – Kyrie Irving – 60 points = 30 percent, 70 points = 5 percent
Tier Two – 60 points > 10 percent of the time
PF – Kawhi Leonard – 60 points = 18 percent, 70 points = 0 percent
C – Joel Embiid – 60 points = 14 percent, 70 points = 2 percent
C – Nikola Jokic – 60 points = 14 percent, 70 points = 5 percent
C – Karl-Anthony Towns – 60 points = 9 percent, 70 points = 6 percent
This is a strange slate as we’re lacking the high-end studs. Kyrie Irving looks like a primary target given a dominant 30 percent rate of games > 60 FanDuel points with no other stud eclipsing 20 percent.
In terms of values, Reggie Jackson is once again a primary target for strong point per dollar production. Frank Kaminsky is a sneaky un-owned option with a really low floor but an intriguing upside given the low total games number and a 1-in-6 shot at getting 30+ FanDuel points for just around $4,000.
With the lack of studs on the slate, center looks like a decent spot to spend. You’ll be fading a Baynes explosion at a cheap price tag but pretty likely to pick up 10-20 FanDuel points on your opponents at the position with a big spend.
Some of the mid-tier upside targets I have my eye on include: Jonathan Isaac (13 percent over 50 points), Rudy Gobert (22 percent over 50 points), Paul George (17 percent over 50 points), and Devin Booker (15 percent over 50 points). If you’re limiting your floor value selections and looking for a bit more balance on a slate without the high-end studs, choosing from this group of options makes a lot of sense.