We March on. Wednesday marks the close of March and three weeks since we last saw live NBA basketball. The FanDuel simulations have been a welcome reprieve as has participating in some of the content we’ve created around video game simulations, but yesterday gave me the best sports news of #QuarantineSZN so far when ESPN announced they’re pushing up the release date of “The Last Dance” – a 10 part documentary series on Michael Jordan and the ‘90s Bulls.
I am not from Chicago, but Chicago sports has played an integral role in my life. My dad raised me a Chicago sports fan while growing up in South Florida. It wasn’t particularly difficult at the time with South Florida sports teams only represented in the NFL until the Heat came along in 1988, giving Michael Jordan a few years to win my heart. The life of a Chicago sports fan was an interesting mix of feeling like your team could never win (The Cubs) and like they could never lose (The Bulls). When I look back, I think how much of my development was shaped by understanding the feeling of being on top of the world and on the bottom. The sports fandom was also a great foundation for the relationship with my dad who has been the single most influential person in my life.
Sports was a connective tissue for me and my dad, like I’m sure it has been for many other families out there. Whether it was rooting on the Chicago sports teams, cultivating my own athletic ability, or eventually fostering a love of Fantasy sports and DFS, sports found a way to connect us. So in some ways, the announcement for “The Last Dance” getting moved up felt like I was getting a little bit closer to feeling sports and in turn feeling family. With so much uncertainty in the world right now, getting a chance to relive some of the moments I enjoyed most alongside my dad in my childhood is incredibly exciting.
Until then…. We’ll keep our eyes on the simulations. Let’s look at Tuesday’s slate.
The value stars:
PG – Kris Dunn (CHI) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
PG – De’Anthony Melton (MEM) – 6x rate = 40 percent, 7x rate = 25 percent
SG – Malik Monk (CHA) – 6x rate = 36 percent, 7x rate = 22 percent
SG – Gary Harris (DEN) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 18 percent
SG – RJ Barrett (NYK) – 6x rate = 36 percent, 7x rate = 20 percent
SF – Mikal Bridges (PHO) – 6x rate = 39 percent, 7x rate = 31 percent
SF – OG Anunoby (TOR) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 25 percent
SF – DeAndre Hunter (ATL) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 19 percent
SF – Josh Jackson (MEM) – 6x rate = 44 percent, 7x rate = 11 percent
PF – James Johnson (MIN) – 6x rate = 50 percent, 7x rate = 34 percent
PF – Paul Millsap (DEN) – 6x rate = 41 percent, 7x rate = 21 percent
PF – Frank Kaminsky (PHO) – 6x rate = 38 percent, 7x rate = 34 percent
C – Bismack Biyombo (CHA) – 6x rate = 38 percent, 7x rate = 28 percent
C – Aron Baynes (PHO) – 6x rate = 35 percent, 7x rate = 24 percent
Tier one – 60 points > 30 percent of the time
SF – Giannis Antetokounmpo – 60 points = 35 percent, 70 points = 14 percent
PG – Luka Doncic (DAL) – 60 points = 30 percent, 70 points = 6 percent
Tier Two – 60 points > 10 percent of the time or 70 points > 5 percent of the time
PG – Trae Young – 60 points = 20 percent, 70 points = 5 percent
C – Nikola Jokic – 60 points = 14 percent, 70 points = 5 percent
C – Karl Anthony Towns – 60 points = 9 percent, 70 points = 6 percent
This is an interesting slate given the strength of small forward with Giannis Antetokounmpo up top and so many strong values below and the lack of depth at point guard. Every slate Giannis has been available, I’ve used him as over ⅓ of the time he’s delivering 60+ Fantasy points. At point guard, Kris Dunn and De’Anthony Melton are the value options with decent upside through the context of value. Luka Doncic and Trae Young bring plenty of security in raw production but the mid-tier lacks the usual upside candidates. Elfrid Payton and Ja Morant have eclipsed 7x in just under 20 percent of their games played but no one else in the mid-tier is routinely challenging those thresholds.
Shooting guard is a good mid-tier place to attack with Devin Booker clearing 50 points in 15 percent of games played this season. The shooting guard values also come with really low floors and the salary relief isn’t as necessary at the position.
At power forward, James Johnson is one of the higher upside salary relief plays on the slate. He’s cleared the 7x mark in 34 percent of games played. In terms of upside at the position, few can match Kristaps Porzingis who has cleared 50 FanDuel points in nearly 30 percent of games played this season. He’s the only player priced below $8,600 on the slate that has anything closer to ⅓ of his games over 50.
The center position is pretty straight forward for me with Aron Baynes (PHO) as the upside gamble. Baynes at just $4,200 has a 5 percent chance of delivering a 50+ Fantasy point outing and breaking the slate. Clint Capela is an intriguing mid-tier option if you’re not spending all the way up for the Towns-Jokic options who offer a bit more consistency.