Daily Fantasy Rundown – February 1 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Tonight’s DFS landscape is one of the more difficult slates to navigate that we’ve had over the past week or two. A lot of the value plays that have emerged recently are either seeing price increases, a tough matchup, or a combination of the two. Couple that with some high priced players in excellent situations (most notably the Oklahoma City Thunder duo) and roster construction is all about where you want to sacrifice. Do you want to sacrifice Russell Westbrook/Kevin Durant in an awesome spot? Or would you rather pound out multiple mid-tier values that, while risky, will give you more balanced upside throughout your lineup and make you less reliant on low ceiling cap relief plays? On FanDuel, their loose pricing makes it a bit easier to take the middle ground and combine both approaches to an extent. On that particular site, you’ll definitely want one of Westbrook or Durant. They’ll face an up tempo Washington team (fifth in pace) that is bottom half in the league in team defensive efficiency, which will boost both the quantity and quality of opportunities for the OKC offense. This is evidenced by a really high 221.5 total. This is the highest total of the night, and with the Thunder the second largest favorites of the night (-9.5), they easily have the highest projected team total. We know most of that scoring can be linked to Westbrook, who amazingly, in games with Kevin Durant, has posted a 32.2 usage rate, 11.7 rebound rate, and a 48.1 assist rate. This volume across so many areas for a point guard is unheard of. He’s our highest projected scorer on the night, and even at an expensive price point should be able to hit his value thresholds.
Next in line:
Kyle Lowry (TOR) – Lowry can be played alongside Westbrook on the looser pricing FanDuel, but on stricter pricing sites, he’s the type of value we’re chasing after if eschewing the OKC top guys – a very high ceiling play but a more manageable salary allowing a more balanced lineup construction. Denver ranks 25th in defensive efficiency against point guards, and the matchup against Mudiay should result in an uptick in pace and defensive statistics for Lowry (Mudiay has the worst turnover rate of any point guard averaging at least 20 minutes). Lowry doesn’t run pick-n-roll ball handler play types as much as most point guards but they still represent his most frequent play type. He’s above average in these situations (64th percentile in points per possession), while the Nuggets are in the 31st percentile in terms of points per possession allowed on these play types. The per dollar upside here is actually about the same as Westbrook’s, so we have no qualms if pricing forces you to drop down to Lowry from Westbrook.