February 10 CBB DFS Picks: Deonte Burton is a Nightmare For Texas Tech
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of DCoop328’s CBB Daily Plays. Today we will break down the top plays at each price range (based on Fanduel pricing).
Ben Simmons (LSU, Forward) – This pick goes without saying, so I’m going to make this quick. Simmons is an elite play every time he steps on the floor and today he gets a great matchup against USC, the 58th fastest team in the country. Carolian plays two European shooting bigs inside so Simmons should be safe from foul trouble. As always, if you can fit him in, which you should be able to do today with the value guards, DO IT.
Dedric Lawson (Memphis, Forward) – This season Dedric Lawson has taken Memphis basketball by storm. He has controlled Memphis usage throughout the season with a usage rate of 27.6 (124th nationally) and has played a huge part in bringing Memphis’ adjusted tempo to ninth in the country up from 94th just a season ago. At 6’9 Dedric loves to run in transition, especially after getting a rebound, pushing the tempo. Dedric’s price has dropped considerably from $10,000 a few weeks ago after a slew of tough matchups against strong interiors from Cincinnati, Temple, and UConn. Tonight Dedric gets to face a smaller Houston team and will likely match up against the much shorter Devonta Pollard or Damyean Dotson.
Note: Guard is a position to punt tonight because the STUD guards all are either in tough matchups or just overpriced for their expected production.
Other Top Plays: Sindarius Thornwell, Jakob Poetl
Mid Range Plays ($6,000-$8,000)
Ethan Happ (Wisconsin, Forward) – It looks like over the past few weeks Coach Gard has finally found a lineup he likes. Happ is in this lineup and has played 28 minutes all but once during his last eight games. Happ has always been a great fantasy point per minute guy but now with consistent minutes he needs to be priced up in the stud range. Happ gets a nice matchup against Nebraska’s weak interior that ranks 10th in the Big 10 in defending the paint. Happ has great moves with his back to the basket and is in a great spot tonight going against Jacobson and McVeigh.
Georges Niang (Iowa State, Forward) – Niang has been a $10,000 player throughout this season, but has recently played poorly. He turned it around in his last game putting up 18-9-3 and his salary looks to be going back up. Buy stock in Niang now before he eclipses $8,000 and $9,000, his normal premium price. An added bonus to Niang is that fellow big man and All Big-12 nominee Jameel Mckay will sit this game with a suspension, spreading more usage to all Iowa State starters. In a game where Iowa State is projected to score 78, Niang could hit value just on his scoring alone.
Marcus Georges-Hunt (Georgia Tech, Guard) – Georgia Tech’s do it all player gets his best matchup of the season. Wake Forest ranks third in the ACC in tempo and dead last in defense. MGH should be able to take full advantage of this matchup, as he basically controls the Georgia Tech offense. He leads the team in usage and has used the new NCAA rules to his full advantage – drawing fouls at an insane clip. With 10-15 extra possessions of action against Wake, Georges-Hunt has 50 point upside in tournaments and a solid 22-25 point floor, making him a great play in cash.
Danuel House (Texas A&M, Forward) – Texas A&M has played horribly in its last two games. Before those two upsets A&M was a top 5, arguably top 2 team. House was and still is a leading contributor, placing a close second in shot percentage and usage rate to fellow Aggie, Jalen Jones. The two are similar players except for the fact that Danuel House possesses a point-guard like 17.1 assists rate. Before his recent slip, House was Mr. Consistent because he racked up points in all three main statistical categories. Expect House to get back to his normal 28-38 fantasy point ways when he faces off against a terrible Alabama team tonight.
Other Mid Range Plays: Pat Birt, Justin Edwards, Adam Smith, Craig Victor II, Kyle Kuzma
Value Plays ($4500-$6000)
Malik (Shake) Milton (SMU, Guard) – Tonight is value city at the guard position and it all starts with Shake Milton, who has been fantastic since the mid-season transfer of Keith Frazier. With SMU’s scholarship ban and Frazier’s departure, the team only has seven scholarship players. Since Frazier’s departure, Milton has been forced to play between 32 and 36 minutes every single game. Although he is not going to get you much from his peripheral stats, Shake should be able to churn out 4 rebounds and 2 assists, which is all that is needed at his cheap price.
Deonte Burton (Iowa State, Guard) – Deonte Burton has played Iowa State’s sixth man role this season, and has been a borderline DFS play, playing around 20 minutes or so per night. Starting forward Jameel Mckay is suspended for tonight’s game so Burton will slide into the starting lineup. Iowa State, who normally only plays six to seven guys, will have an even thinner bench tonight, leading to Burton getting 30 minutes on the court. Burton, when he has played has possessed the team’s second leading shot percentage and usage rate. With these usage stats and guaranteed minutes, Burton would be in play at $7,000 tonight but at $5,400 he is my lock play of the night.
Codi Miller-McIntyre (Wake Forest, Guard) – I touted CMM’s triple double upside on Saturday and he nearly hit it. At the half he had eclipsed 8 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists. He slowed as the game progressed but still hit 5.5x value. CMM finally looked like his 2014-2015 self, taking control of the Wake offense. CMM’s price only jumped a minuscule $300 to $5,600, nearly half of what it was last year when he hovered in the $9,000 range. Just as he had Saturday, Miller-McIntyre again gives you the triple-double upside from a value play that can win you a tournament.
Malik Dime (Washington, Forward) – Dime is one of my favorite players in college basketball. The biggest issue from a DFS perspective is that he comes off the bench and does not get guaranteed minutes. Luckily, the two starters ahead of him are always, and I mean always, in foul trouble. The two starting forwards each foul greater than 6.5 times per 40 minutes. Chriss, the higher of the two, has been known around CBB this season as the worst fouler in the country. The odds of Chriss and Dickerson both playing their full allotment of minutes tonight are probably around 10-15% going up against Jakob Poetl, one of the nation’s top big men. Dime will likely have to play 25-30 minutes. Assuming Dime receives quality minutes, he has insane upside because of his 11.9 block rate (13th in the country).
Other Value Plays: Antonio Blakeney, Justin Gray
Good luck today everybody and as always if you have any questions hit me up in the forums or on twitter @dcoop328dfs.
* statistics courtesy of kenpom.com