DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN – FEBRUARY 20 NBA DFS PICKS AND ANALYSIS
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and“TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Stephen Curry (GSW) is the top projected scorer in this slate, and there’s around a five point projected gap here. Chris Paul (LAC) is the second highest projected scorer, but his expected value is in the mid 40s while Curry’s is in the low 50s. Paul is the stronger point per dollar option (particularly on DraftKings), but Curry is the clear-cut top play. While Curry is playing on back-to-back nights, there are a couple of factors that are working in his favor. The Warriors just got mauled by the Trail Blazers last night (lost 137-105 on the road), which is actually good news for Curry, who only played 26 minutes. Secondly, the Warriors were off for eight consecutive days (their last game was February 10th before last night’s game) thanks to the All-Star break, so we’re not going to be overly worried about efficiency concerns for right now. Lastly, the Warriors are only favored by 4.5 points as they’ll take on the Clippers on the road. We think Curry’s playing time is more secure tonight in the most competitive game in this slate, and that’s enough to put him right around his value threshold around the industry.
Picking against the Warriors comes with some challenges. They’re an elite defensive team (ranked second in team defensive efficiency), and most nights their margin of victory is significant. However, they play at an elevated pace (ranked second in pace), and they’re playing a good Clippers team on the road, which has led to one of the smallest spreads you’ll see for the Warriors for the remainder of the season. Chris Paul is averaging 1.30 FanDuel points per minute this season without Blake Griffin on the court, and he shouldn’t have a problem seeing his regular allotment of minutes (around 33-34 minutes) in a competitive environment this evening. Paul is projected to meet value (45 Fantasy points), making him a viable option in all formats. We prefer Paul on DraftKings, where the pricing difference between him and Curry is more significant. Paying up for both on FanDuel isn’t very difficult, but if we had to choose one on that site, it’ll be Curry since the pricing difference is smaller. Building around one of Curry or Paul in cash games is the way to go in a reduced slate, but keep in mind that we’re also very high on the strongest point per dollar option at the position, Goran Dragic.