The 11th week of the NFL season brought us a season ending injury to a young quarterback, significant COVID situations plus other minor injuries that could affect players in week 12. These situations are also going to affect players in both the Thanksgiving slate as well as the main slate on Sunday. Let’s get right to it.
Thanksgiving Slate
J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram – OUT due to COVID-19
– Gus Edwards ($4,000 DK/$5,200 FD)
– Justice Hill ($4,000 DK/$4,500 FD)
The Ravens have a quick turnaround as they play on Thanksgiving against the Pittsburgh Steelers and will be doing so without the services of their top two running backs. That opens up clear opportunity for Gus Edwards, who should be used as the primary back in this backfield and Justice Hill, who will be forced into backup duties. In this Ravens’ offense, backup duties can still yield near double digit carries and a target or two, so it has some value to it. Perhaps even more appealing is the minimum price tags that these running backs carry on DraftKings, though the lack of pass catching opportunities hurt their value profiles. The other negative is a matchup against a Steelers’ defense that’s allowing the second least amount of Fantasy Points to the running back position. Edwards will likely carry a decent projection but we’ll have to see how ownership projections shake out. Ultimately, if Edwards is mega chalk in this three game slate then going underweight makes sense.
Detroit Lions
Kenny Golladay, D’andre Swift, Danny Amendola, Marvin Hall and T.J. Hockenson – All Questionable
The Detroit Lions’ offense gets a get well spot against a Houston Texans’ defense that’s allowing the second most Fantasy Points to the running back position and 12th most to the wide receiver position. Unfortunately, they might be severely banged up for this game. Golladay, Swift and Amendola missed week 11 and the former two are probably on the doubtful side this week given the quick turnaround. Golladay has been dealing with a hip injury that has sidelined him multiple weeks (he hasn’t practiced yet) and Swift is dealing with a concussion. Amendola, however, returned to practice on a limited basis on Monday while Hall and Hockenson were limited as well. Marvin Jones Jr., T.J. Hockenson and Danny Amendola will be the busiest pass catchers and Marvin Hall should play 60-70% of snaps if Golladay misses while Adrian Petterson and Kerryon Johnson will split the RB workload if Swift is out. Johnson saw 5 targets in week 11 with the Lions trailing. The lack of clarity here as of today (Tuesday) makes it tough for me to give any decisive comments on individual plays but it does look like the Lions will once again provide some cheap value.
Other Injuries we’re tracking on Thanksgiving
– Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson – Questionable to play (didn’t practice on Monday; Dontrelle Inman is Q as well but did practice on Monday on a limited basis)
– Juju Smith-Schuster – Questionable to play (didn’t practice on Monday)
– Kenny Stills – Questionable to play
– Randall Cobb – OUT; Keke Coutee is in line to play a bigger role as a slot receiver
Main Slate
Adam Thielen – Placed on COVID-19 List
– Justin Jefferson ($6,300 DK/$7,000 FD)
– Chad Beebe ($3,000 DK/$4,500 FD)
Thielen was officially placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday. However, that doesn’t rule him out for this Sunday as he’ll still have a chance to play if he can test negative throughout the week. IF Thielen is indeed ruled out, Thielen’s absence will be felt as this is a receiver we routinely project for a market share of targets in the mid 20s%. The entire offense will receive a boost in opportunity, with Justin Jefferson clearly becoming the WR1 and the surefire receiver you want in your lineups. Chad Bebee will get a chance to start on the opposite side of Jefferson but it’s possible that the tight ends (Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr.) end up with a bigger target share. This is clearly one of the bigger injury situations to monitor this week.
Joe Burrow – OUT for the season with a torn ACL/MCL
– Ryan Finley ($4,900 DK/$6,300 FD)
Burrow suffered a season ending injury in week 11 and Ryan Finley was his replacement. My guess is that Finley will be the quarterback for the Bengals to finish out this season and he gets to throw to a promising duo of receivers in Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Unfortunately, the Bengals’ offensive line is horrible and Finley isn’t a starter for a reason. Burrow was keeping this offense afloat, and with Finley spelling him, the expectation is that this entire offense will take a clear step back. Finley is very cheap on both sites but he won’t project well.
Other Injuries we’re tracking:
Christian McCaffrey – Doubtful
– Mike Davis
Teddy Bridgewater – Questionable
– P.J. Walker
Raheem Mostert – Questionable (expected to play)
Tevin Coleman – Questionable (expected to play)
If both are out, Jerick McKinnon is the likely running back to own in the 49ers backfield.
Julio Jones – Questionable
– Calvin Ridley
– Hayden Hurst
– Olamide Zaccheaus
Brandon Aiyuk – Questionable (placed on COVID-19 list on 11/20)
Deebo Samuel – Questionable (expected to play)
If both are out, Kendrick Bourne and Richie James will be the top wide receivers for the 49ers.
Sammy Watkins – Questionable (expected to play)
– Demarcus Robinson
La’Mical Perine – OUT
– Frank Gore
– Ty Johnson
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