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First Look: Week 4 NFL DFS Injury News and Notes

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First Look: Week 4 NFL DFS Injury News and Notes
TheNumbersGuy
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Week 3 of the NFL season brought us less injuries than the first couple of weeks. However, some of the injuries that did occur will bring us value immediately heading into week 4. Let’s take a look at these major injury situations. 

Chris Carson – Minor Knee Sprain That Carries a 1-2 Week Timetable

Carlos Hyde ($5,300 DK/$5,700 FD)

Travis Homer ($4,000 DK/$5,200 FD) 

Analysis: Carson hasn’t officially been ruled out against the Miami Dolphins this week but the Seahawks are 3-0 and are 6.5 point favorites this week. They don’t need to rush Carson for this one. That’s going to bring value for us in the way of Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer. We’re not sure exactly how the touches will be distributed at this point, but my guess is Hyde will get early downs and goal line touches while Homer gets most if not all of the passing down opportunities. The Seahawks might sign someone from the practice squad as an emergency back in case of an injury, but we’d expect Hyde and Homer to get most if not all of the workload at the running back position as long as they’re healthy. Homer is the cheaper back and the $4,000 price tag on DK, the site that suits him best due to the PPR scoring, will make him an intriguing play albeit one that carries a low ceiling. 

Chris Godwin – Doubtful To Play With a Hamstring Injury

Mike Evans ($6,400 DK/$7,400 FD)

Justin Watson ($3,400 DK/$4,600 FD); Questionable to play 

Rob Gronkowski ($3,600 DK/$5,200 FD)

Scotty Miller ($4,100 DK/$5,000 FD); Questionable to play

Analysis: Watson played 89% of snaps in week 2 with Godwin sidelined and received 3 targets. Meanwhile, Evans received 10 targets in week 2 and turned those into a 7-104-1 line. Miller will receive more playing time as well but he’d be more interesting if he were to start over Watson. With Watson and Miller carrying Q tags for this game as well, this will likely turn into the Mike Evans show. He’s priced as the 14th most expensive wide receiver on DK. You might want to take some hopeful shots in tournaments with Gronkowski after the latter played 92% of snaps and received 7 targets in week 3. Gronkowski has looked like a shell of himself to start the season with the Buccaneers but with Godwin sidelined, there’s clear opportunity available and his price tags are as low as you’ll ever see them. 

Diontae Johnson  – Questionable To Play With a Concussion 

Juju Smith-Schuster ($6,600 DK/$7,200 FD)

James Washington ($4,800 DK/$4,900 FD) 

Chase Claypool ($4,000 DK/$4,900 FD) 

Analysis: While there wouldn’t be a material difference in Juju’s playing time if Johnson sits, his target share would certainly have a bigger ceiling. His price tags are mostly fair while Washington’s and Claypool’s aren’t. With Johnson exiting the game earlier last week, Washington played 61% of snaps and saw a team high 7 targets while Claypool played a whopping 76% of snaps and received 4 targets. Both have shown an ability to make big plays, which would make them very intriguing as value targets IF more opportunity is available via Johnson potentially sitting. Johnson isn’t just another starter in this offense – he’s a starter that’s an intricate part of the passing offense, as he saw 10 and 13 targets in the first two weeks of the season.

Other Injuries We’re Monitoring For Main Slate

Michael Thomas (Questionable; hasn’t practiced since he sustained the high ankle sprain. Tre’Quan Smith played 100% of snaps in week 3 with Thomas out) 

A.J. Brown (Questionable) 

D.J. Chark (Questionable) 

Jared Cook (Questionable)

Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards (Questionable; Hunter Renfrow, who’s $4,600 on DK and $5,300 on FD this week, saw 9 targets last week with Ruggs III out, Edwards not finishing the game and Jacobs/Waller playing through injuries.

John Brown (Questionable; Gabriel Davis played 74% of snaps last week with Brown leaving the game early and would directly benefit once again IF Brown is unable to suit up)

Mike Williams (Questionable) 

James White (Questionable due to a personal issue; Rex Burkhead isn’t dirt cheap anymore at $4,800 on DK and $5,600 on FD, but he’ll continue to see heavy involvement in this Patriots offense IF White remains out)

Michael Pittman Jr. (OUT; Zach Pascal played 93% of snaps in week 3 and will continue to receive heavy playing time with Pittman Jr. out of the picture) 

Tarik Cohen (OUT for the season; David Montgomery will be forced to play more and should see a bump in targets as the only other running back on the Bears roster is Ryan Nall)

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