Going All In: You Still Don’t Want To Spend Heavy On DFS Pitching
As a reminder, this Thursday piece is a continuing examination of the merits of spending on DFS high-priced pitching. (You can always look back here for the introduction.) This entire season, I’ll be tracking lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyAces. There will be two competing lineups on each site, one using the highest-priced pitchers and another avoiding the those. As a FYI, “highest-priced” means the Top 1-3 guys on most days. In addition, many of the hitters will remain the same to get a decent lineup-to-lineup comparison with the saved money used at 1-3 spots to improve the hitting choices.
For the method in choosing pitchers, it’s not arbitrary. I use the DailyRoto pitcher rankings to break ties or close calls. I’ll never take the highest-priced pitcher if he’s not even a recommended play, and I won’t use a cheap pitcher that should be avoided.
Before anyone asks, when you see skipped days, that could be for various reasons: too many weather concerns, small slate to get a fair comparison, wasn’t home for enough research (happens often on Sundays). Hey, we still have lives too.
DraftKings: Price and Shields 116.75, McHugh and Hammel 115.90 (+0.85)
FanDuel: Price 32.58, Shields 37.25 (-4.67)
FantasyAces: Price and Shields 60.50, McHugh and Warren 58.25 (+2.25)
Notes: Very close day overall. The hitting nearly balanced out, and for FanDuel, the fact that Shields was a bargain (relatively) was the biggest difference.
DraftKings: Kershaw and Cueto 101.15, Ross and Montero 102.60 (-1.45)
FanDuel: Kershaw 49.75, Cueto 55.75 (-6.00)
FantasyAces: Kershaw and Cueto 74.75, Ross and Montero 62.50 (+12.25)
Notes: Interesting sites splits here. On DraftKings, The pitching wasn’t far enough off that the added hitting (Kris Bryant, Nelson Cruz, etc.) made up the difference, but on FantasyAces, the same hitter gains weren’t there.
DraftKings: Hernandez and Cole 128.90, Zimmermann and Martinez 119.45
FanDuel: Hernandez 29.16, Martinez 43.25
Notes: Another day where the sites differ even with similar pitching comparisons. The hitting didn’t see enough of a boost on DraftKings to meet the performances of Hernandez and Cole. However, on FanDuel, Martinez was short only 1.66 points, and adding Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz (over Pujols and Carlos Gonzalez) made a big difference.
DraftKings tracking -132.60 or -14.73 FPPC (Fantasy Points Per Contest)
FanDuel: -54.10 and -6.01 FPPC
FantasyAces: -5.50 and -1.10 FPPC
DraftKings saw the gap narrow for the second week in a row, but FanDuel increased in favor of “less expensive pitching” quite a bit. FantasyAces saw its gap close too, and it’s close to tracking even. The FanDuel change is surprising, as I expected that to be the one site favoring high-priced pitching the most given its scoring format.