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GPP Stacking w/ Park Factors MLB

GPP Stacking with Park Factors

GPP Stacking with Park Factors
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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GPP Stacking with Park Factors

Good morning DailyRoto members! TGIF! We have officially made it through three weeks of the Major League Baseball season, but don’t worry, there is plenty more to come.

If you’re unfamiliar with the basis of this piece, please check out the articles from the first two weeks HERE.

For those of you who are not willing to look back, I’ll give you a bit of a preview. Each week this season, I will be experimenting with GPP stacking based on park factors. If you are unaware, park factor simply ranks the various ballparks in Major League Baseball based on a relative scale. Therefore, some parks have a higher rating, meaning they are more conducive to offense, while others receive a low rating, which means that it is not a hitter’s paradise.

In week one I used ESPN’s park factor ratings from last season. However, to sophisticate the study, last week I introduced my own calculations.

Using the FanGraphs park factors by handedness, I created the spreadsheet inserted below. Notice, the final column is a weighted average of homeruns and all non-home run activity. I’m not going to re-explain how I came upon the calculations, but if you would like to know, please look back at last week’s article.


After creating the calculations, on a given day of games, I stack teams in the ballpark with the worst rating, as well as teams from the best ballpark.

The past few weeks I have spent time focusing on ownership levels in the “bad” ballparks. If you’ll remember from week one, I hypothesized that due to the low ownership levels associated with the “worst” park, we might be able to exploit the matchups and gain exposure to a contrarian matchup.

I touched on the low ownership levels a bit last week, but this week I want to show you.

During Tuesday’s slate of games, the best park was Coors Field in Colorado. The worst park was right in my backyard in Pittsburgh, at PNC Park. In order to get a broader overview of the ownership levels attached to the game at PNC park, I decided to stack not one, but both teams separately.

PNC1

PNC2

 

Above you can see the teams I created. Notice that of all the players selected, only three players total exceeded 10% ownership levels and two of them (Votto and Giancarlo) were in games outside of PNC Park. The other, Kris Bryant, has had considerable hype in his first week in the big leagues that helped contribute to his rather high ownership against a left-handed pitcher.

Note: In order to enter valid lineups, I must select hitters from three teams.

Another note that I’ve touched on, particularly in last week’s piece, was using lineups facing good pitchers in good pitcher’s parks. That is the case for the Cubs lineup that faced left-hander Francisco Liriano. The Cubs were on the wrong end of two important caveats in Daily Fantasy baseball: finding hitters in good run scoring environments and those facing bad pitchers. The Cubs, who ended up putting up nine runs on the night, were completely against the grain, but it worked. Thanks to their low ownership levels and hearty production, the Cubs stack finished 242nd out of 37,345 teams in the $3 Moonshot on DraftKings.

The Pirates lineup, despite facing a less intimidating pitcher still carried an extremely low ownership levels. Again, despite going against the grain, they scored eight runs, two via the home run, and the lineup finished 289th out of 37,345 teams.

I thought this was a great example of what I hypothesized early in the season. Despite stacking a lineup from a bad ballpark, we can make huge strides on the rest of the field due to the low ownership level. While we win less often on these stacks, hopefully the return on investment (ROI) is much higher when we do win.

The best park on the slate, Coors Field, held a game with 13 total runs, but because of the extreme pricing shifts that DraftKings has imposed on games in great ballparks and some luck that none of the best players (Tulowitzki, Kemp, Upton) did much to write home about, the game in PNC Park boasted better lineup scores.

As the season progresses, I’ll look to keep tracking the bad ballpark ownership levels, as well as my production in the DraftKings GPPS.

This week’s ROI report, as well as a special spot for Tuesday’s games is listed below.

I separated Tuesday from the list because I wanted to show you guys just how profitable it can be to be contrarian, IF AND WHEN it works. Once again, to note, I’m stacking these games in the bad ballparks for the purpose of the experiment and testing the hypothesis. I’m not advising that this is always the best course of action.

Date Best Park ROI Worst Park ROI Total
Tuesday, 4/21 -100% 466% 277%
Wednesday 400% 200% 300%
Thursday -100% -100% -100%

 

Overall, it was a pretty solid week. Again, for those that might be just reading this for the first time, I fluctuate my entries in games between $0.25 to $3 based on what is offered or not filled when I get a chance to enter the teams on DraftKings. Therefore, while the ROI has been quite impressive in instances, by no means am I rolling on a bed full of hundreds. Perhaps that will come soon enough.

GPP Stacking w/ Park Factors MLB