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GPP Stacking w/ Park Factors

GPP Stacking with Park Factors

GPP Stacking with Park Factors
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GPP Stacking with Park Factors

Dun-dun-dun. Wamp-wamp-wamp-wamp-wamp. Queue up any sort of “failure” music and keep it rolling, because this week was a complete failure in my continued experiment of GPP stacking with park factors. As some of you might know, I’ve been experimenting with different lineup construction strategies for GPP play on DraftKings. The strategies surround around two different complete stacks made up of teams playing in the best and worst parks on the slate in accordance with a manipulation of the FanGraphs park factors by handedness.

If you are just catching up for the first time, you can view more specifics and other weeks full of the experiment by selecting “Park Factors” from the “MLB Free” drop down menu.

If you’ve been following along, you’re aware that in previous weeks I’ve been talking a lot about ownership. I’ve discussed ownership levels on slates with a lot of offense, low ownership in bad parks, and a little bit in between.

This week was the picture perfect mesh of all the things I’ve discussed thanks to games in Coors Field.

I’ve attached below a pair of my teams from last night’s $1 Solo Shot tournament on DraftKings.

logan_1

logan_2

At first glance, you’re probably noticing how poorly both of these teams performed. However, don’t let the total scores fool you, because this one isn’t on my offensive output. Despite only a six run game in San Francisco, the worst park was able to put up a respectable number, but was dragged down by the awful, chalky, Gerrit Cole.

I’ve mentioned in the past how important it is to get the pitchers right on your GPP lineup as they can make up a large portion of your scoring, or they can keep you from reaching great heights. The 3.9 points from Cole not only held down a low owned team in the worst park, but also kept the Coors Field team from even having a chance.

That’s how it went this week as I just couldn’t get it going with any of my teams.

I’ve included the updated table for the week and the season below, as well as some analysis on the changes from last week.

Week
Best Park Avg.
Worst Park Avg.
Best Park ROI
Worst Park ROI
Total
This Week 81.6 73.86 -100% -100% -100%
Season to Date 102.17 95.76 73.04% 134.78% 103.91%

First you should notice the weekly averages for both teams – what a dreaded week. This week not only hampered the respective ROIs but also the average scores.

When taking on a volatile strategy like stacking in GPPs, I expect this to happen from time to time and this is perhaps my coldest stretch of the year. However, while things didn’t play out well this week, the process remained sound.

For a refresher on the process, I’ve listed just three points below that focus on the things that are most important for this experiment to be successful.

  • Focus on not only selecting hitters from the best and worst park, but on selecting hitters with the best opportunities in those games.
  • Match hitters from the third required team with a ballpark of the same caliber as the rest of the team.
    1. For example, don’t take a player from Coors Field to match with a stack from Safeco Field.
  • Try and select pitchers to match with the respective park stack (This varies based on weather and available pitchers).

Sticking to this process is important, as it is with any routine in DFS. Hopefully next week it brings better results!

Thoughts on Logan’s experiment or have an idea of your own that you want to share?

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GPP Stacking w/ Park Factors