GPP Stacking with Park Factors
Welcome DailyRoto members! Another week has passed by in my experiment with GPP stacking with park factors at DraftKings, and while the results were less than ideal, it has been another week full of interesting notes.
If you’re new to this piece, I strongly recommend you look back at previous weeks by selecting “Park Factors” from the MLB Free drop-down menu. Each week this season I’ve been stacking GPP lineups based on FanGraphs handedness park factors and analyzing my successes and failures afterwards.
There is not much in terms of success to gloat about this week, but I also don’t want to harp on the negative either, as the constant flow of offense this week has me tuned in to a different thought.
I know in the past that we’ve touched on ownership levels a lot. Typically, as I hypothesized earlier in the year, the games with the better park rating, which in turn often offer a higher run scoring environment per game, yield higher ownership levels. For instance, games in Coors Field typically draw high ownership levels across the board.
However, with all the runs being scored all over the place, I started to wonder about ownership levels in tournaments when there are multiple games with great run scoring environments.
That’s where last night’s games come in.
Below I’ve attached my team form the best ballpark, Coors Field.
Much to my surprise, the ownership levels on the players in this game, or at least the ones I had selected, were relatively low given that the game was being played in Coors Field.
When I took a step back though, I noticed that Coors Field wasn’t the only great run scoring environment that night.
In fact, seven of the 15 games played yesterday were played in parks with final ratings over 100 in my manipulated park factor ranking. To put that into context, there are only 15 parks with plus-100 ratings in the system’s entirety, meaning that almost half of the “good parks” were in play last night. That makes for a lot of great run scoring opportunities.
So what happens to ownerships of marquee players when there are plenty of great ballparks and matchups in play?
Here is a list of some notable players in great parks and their ownership levels Wednesday night.
|Josh Donaldson||Rogers Centre||23.7%|
|Andrew McCutchen||US Cellular||9.7%|
|Paul Goldschmidt||Chase Field||13.3%|
|George Springer||Coors Field||15.0%|
|Brian McCann||Yankee Stadium||8.0%|
All of the players I listed above had plus matchups last night – a combination of the opposing pitcher, the lineup spot and the park.
Notice that their ownership levels are actually really healthy for a large field GPP. On most nights with a game in Coors Field, I think you’d struggle to find ownerships like this for key players around the league.
I thought this was a really interesting note, as typically on a night with Coors Field games, you wallow in the 25-30% ownership range and struggle to differentiate.
Overall, it wasn’t a great week for my teams, as even this team from last night couldn’t punch it through to cash.
I’ve updated the table below for this week’s games.
|Week||Best Park Avg.||Worst Park Avg.||Best Park ROI||Worst Park ROI||Total ROI|
It was a down week, as all the offensive explosions happened in parks that weren’t deemed the “best” or “worst” by my standards.
Here’s to next week!
Thoughts on Logan’s experiment or have an idea of your own that you want to share?