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GPP Stacking w/ Park Factors

GPP Stacking with Park Factors

GPP Stacking with Park Factors
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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GPP Stacking with Park Factors

So close, but yet, so far away. It almost happened, I almost took down a slightly smaller version of the quarter arcade last night on DraftKings. All season long I’ve spent three to four nights a week putting together stacks using a system of relative ranks based on a slight manipulation of the FanGraphs park factor ratings by handedness. I’ve had some pretty successful finishes (you can view my ROI for the year below), but I think this is the closest I’ve ever come to a first place finish. Keep in mind, these .25 GPPs are made up a lot of people, so anywhere near the top was a pretty solid team for the respective night.

For a look back at Logan’s GPP Stacking with Park Factors series, click here!

The ironic thing about last night’s team, was that it shouldn’t have ever been made. Thanks to a small oversight, I somehow skipped over Angel Stadium and sorted until I found Marlins Park in Miami. It ended up working in my favor, as the “next worst ballpark” put out a decent fantasy output.

Below I’ve included both my team from the Marlins Park, as well as my team from Chase Field, the best park.

Screen Shot 2015-07-02 at 6.37.21 AM

Screen Shot 2015-07-02 at 6.37.53 AM

You might remember that I’ve had nights like this in the past, and this meets the expectations I’ve set forth in previous articles. Most of the time, the best park is going to yield a better score, and find itself near the cash line more consistently, but on certain nights, the worst park has a better chance at creating larger gaps in ROI.

Now this isn’t mind blowing money, in fact, I only won .60 (a .35 profit!) but that is a 140% return on investment. Apply that to a little bit bigger stakes, and you’re looking at a sizeable payday.

If you take a look at the teams,  you’ll notice I really stuck to the process and rules of the experiment, and it actually sort of cost me.

Carlos Carrasco and Lester were both awesome, but were in games at “bad parks” (which is actually good for them), so this played an integral role in the success of my bad park team, which performed well offensively as well.

The best park team was fairly sluggish for the matchups that were available (this hindered me in cash games around the industry as well) but would have had a chance to get near minimum cash with some better pitching performances.

I’ve really harped on sticking to a sound process for this experiment as it’s necessary for success in DFS, regardless of game play.

I’ll march on, and perhaps I’ll hit one of these soon. Until then, I’ve updated the yearly sheet below.

Week

Best Park Avg.

Worst Park Avg.

Best Park ROI

Worst Park ROI

Total

This Week 104.1 102.07 -60% -20% -40%
Year To Date 102.37 96.41 68.84% 129.89% 99.37%

 

Thoughts on Logan’s experiment or have an idea of your own that you want to share?

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GPP Stacking w/ Park Factors