Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 13 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Stephen Curry (GS) – While it’s difficult to pinpoint the core value plays for tonight’s slate since injury situations are uncertain, what is clear is that some are going to inevitably pop up. When that occurs, you’ll be able to pay up for at least one stud, and our preferred expensive player tonight is Stephen Curry. While some blowout risk exists (Warriors are -10), the expectation that Draymond Green will rest (possibly Iguodala and Livingston as well) works in Curry’s favor. Not only should it result in a closer game (hopefully leading to some Curry minutes), but Curry should see an uptick in per minute production. While that seems impossible given he’s already averaging 1.48 DraftKings points per minute on the season, that number actually rises to 1.67 with Green off the floor. The sample size of that is rather small (81 minutes), but it’s the detail behind it that has us excited. Curry sees meaningful increases in both usage and assist rates with Green off the floor (NBAwowy.com), and that makes sense given Green’s unique role (more likely Curry shoulders more offensive responsibility than a fill in tries to replicate what Green does). So, the increase in opportunity creates some leeway in case this is a blowout, and the matchup does as well. Denver ranks 26th in defensive efficiency against point guards. Furthermore, the return of Emmanuel Mudiay should result in a faster tempo for Denver, and the turnover prone guard (22 percent turnover rate) should allow Curry to generate multiple steals (averages 2.2 per 36 minutes). As an added bonus, backup point guard Shaun Livingston may rest as well, which would stabilize the floor on Curry’s minutes. UPDATE: Draymond Green will rest but everyone else will play.