Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 14 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Stephen Curry (GS) – On a large slate, we’d probably avoid Curry, at least in cash games, on the second night of a back to back (played 40 minutes last game and has played at least 38 in three straight) heading into a game with severe blowout risk (GS -17 at home against the Lakers). However, with Draymond Green likely to rest again (Curry sees usage and assist rate spikes with Green off the floor leading to an uncanny per minute Fantasy production) and the matchup so elite (Lakers are top half in the league in pace and rank 28th in defensive efficiency against point guards), we’re willing to risk Curry in cash games despite the likelihood of reduced minutes. On FanDuel, where pricing is looser overall, there is simply not a lot of places to spend tonight, especially if keying in on the best value plays as a base for your roster. As a result, consider Curry on your short list of point guard cash game options on that particular site. On stricter pricing sites where it’s less difficult to spend to the cap while utilizing the best per dollar values, Curry is still viable in cash, but we’d be more likely to pursue gaining exposure to him in a tournament setting.
Ish Smith (PHI) – Smith is an obvious play on FanDuel where his price is rising very gradually (still a touch below the average cost of a roster spot), but even on stricter pricing sites, he’s the point guard value we’re most interested in. We’ve harped on it since the trade to Philadelphia, but Smith’s new role, including increased playing time (30.4 minutes per game; 33 and 38 his past two) and more offensive responsibility (29.9 usage rate and 50.4 assist rate), is not fully accounted for in his price. It’s also important to note that Philadelphia has been running at a much faster pace since Smith came to town and Mike D’Antoni was added to the coaching staff. They are up to sixth in pace, and will face a Bulls team that is also top 10 in the league in pace. While there’s some volatility here, we’re swayed by Smith’s volume on this short slate.