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1/19 NBA DFS: Thunder Up with KD

1/19 NBA DFS: Thunder Up with KD
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 19 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” andTheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.

*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.

**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel

Top Play:

Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Westbrook’s volume (33.3 percent usage rate, 48.3 assist rate this season), meet Denver. From a macro perspective, this matchup is perfect for Westbrook (Denver is ranked 26th in overall team defensive efficiency). However, it’s when you look at the micro level that this matchup is remarkable for Westbrook. Denver is awful at defending point guards (ranked 26th in defensive efficiency), and they really struggle against ball handlers in pick-n-roll situations (allowing 0.87 points per possession). It’ll be difficult for them to defend a player like Russell Westbrook, who’s averaging 0.85 points per possession as the ball handler in pick-n-roll situations (37 percent frequency). In Westbrook’s last four games vs. Denver, he’s averaged 48.8 FanDuel points. His threshold around the industry is hovering around 47-50 Fantasy points, and we’re projecting him to exceed that this evening. Elevated opportunity cost at the point guard position is the only reason we’re not all in on Russ in cash games, but as the top projected Fantasy scorer in this slate in a juicy matchup, he’s well worth his salary in every format. If we had to choose between one of Westbrook or teammate Kevin Durant, we’ll side with Durant since his position carries less opportunity cost. In a reduced slate, you’ll want to lock in one of Westbrook or Durant in cash games.

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