Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 24 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and“TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Despite the blowout risk that Westbrook faces today (OKC is favored by 13.5 points on the road), he remains our top projected scorer in DFS. The only player that’s close to Westbrook’s expected value is James Harden (Dwight Howard is highly doubtful to play). Westbrook’s high volume of opportunities (33.2 percent usage rate/48.9 percent assist rate/11.6 percent rebounding rate) meets an excellent micro and macro matchup, as Brooklyn ranks poorly in defensive efficiency against point guards (26th) and overall (26th). Brooklyn is specifically prone to ball handlers in pick-n-roll situations (ranked dead last in these situations; allowing 0.88 points per possession), and Westbrook receives 37 percent frequency in these situations (0.83 points per possession). On FanDuel, Westbrook’s threshold sits at 47 Fantasy points, and he’s averaging 48.3 FanDuel points per game. In a matchup that suits him well, we’re willing to invest in Westbrook on FanDuel (the looser pricing site) across all formats despite the blowout risk. On a tighter pricing site like DraftKings, it’ll be more difficult to fit Westbrook in cash games. While he’s cash viable on that site as well, we prefer reaching for other point guards below his tier and using him in tournaments. Having exposure to one of Westbrook or Durant (or both on FanDuel) in cash games on a reduced slate is advisable (OKC’s team total is the highest on this slate – 110.5 points).