Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 26 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Our top priority among stud players tonight is far and away DeMarcus Cousins. As a result, Westbrook isn’t a core play, but he’s certainly in the conversation in all formats on a night where a plethora of strong, cheap values are present. On paper, the matchup against the Knicks isn’t great; they rank ninth in defensive efficiency against point guards. However, the Knicks have really been exploited by guards driving to the hoop recently, and Westbrook is seventh in the NBA in drivers per game. Westbrook always carries significant upside, so it feels silly saying “there’s big time upside” here, but it’s true, especially if he can get into the pain consistently against the Knicks. He’s a secondary value and elite tournament option.
Next in line: Chris Paul (LAC) (price has adjusted to life without Blake Griffin for Paul, which keeps him a better tournament option than cash game play)
Mid-high priced values:
On DraftKings, there isn’t really a clear-cut, core guard value, but there are several mid-high priced options that are viable values in a vacuum and have matchups that present additional upside. The best per dollar value of this group is Ish Smith (PHI). He’s still underpriced based on his role in Philadelphia (more so on FanDuel), and has a phenomenal matchup against a thin Suns team. The Suns haven’t defended the point guard position well all season (28th in defensive efficiency against point guards), and that’s only gotten worse with injuries to Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. In fact, they are dead last against point guards over their last 10 games. In general, this game provides a fun DFS environment as you’ve got two bad, up tempo (fourth and fifth in pace) teams in a game with a tight spread (2.5). It makes for a nice mini-stack in tournament formats (and to a lesser extent, cash games as well).
While Smith is our preferred per dollar value, the strong cheap options available tonight may lead you to pay up for a point guard with a higher projected raw total score. The two that most come to mind our Rajon Rondo (SAC) (absurd recent assist rate over 50 percent; volume should be stable, if not rise, with Rudy Gay out) and Damian Lillard POR) (playing against a Sacramento team that is tied for first in pace and is 26th in defensive efficiency against point guards).