Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 31 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is DraftKings
Stephen Curry (GS) – Curry is our top projected scoring point guard on the evening, which isn’t surprising as he’s $1,500 more expensive than any other option at the position. Even at the high price tag, we’re pegging Curry to score right around his value threshold. The scoring structure on DraftKings is very favorable for high volume players (all of the bonuses, only half of a negative point per turnover), and there aren’t many of these types of players present in this slate. If choosing to punt the forward spots, which don’t come with much opportunity cost at all tonight, it’s possible to pay up for Curry in both cash and tournament formats. There’s always blowout risk when the Warriors play, but an East coast road game with a 10.5 point spread doesn’t present more blowout risk than usual. Additionally, and this is completely anecdotal/narrative driven, but the once a year trip to Madison Square Garden may bring out the best in Curry. Consider him a secondary value on DraftKings (more of a tournament only option on FanDuel where the scoring system isn’t as tilted towards the high volume players).
Next in line:
Kemba Walker (CHA) – Nicolas Batum returned for a couple of games, but, with the toe injury continuing to bother him, has been ruled out for tonight’s game. With Batum out and Al Jefferson yet to return, Walker is line for huge volume. Walker has averaged an astounding 40.7 minutes, 33.1 usage rate, 27.8 assist rate, and 45.7 DraftKings points in eight contests without Batum this season. All those numbers represent clear increases from his season long averages. With a value threshold of 42.8 DraftKings points, an average game without Batum puts Walker easily in a profit area. Additionally, all of this volume is meeting an elite matchup as the Lakers rank dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards. With only one other game carrying a tighter spread (ATL-MIA, which has the lowest total on the slate), you really want to get exposure to a Charlotte team with a lot of contextual factors in their favor. Ideally, Jeremy Lamb remains out as well, which would push Jeremy Lin to very strong value play status, if he’s able to return from an ankle injury. If Lin is unable to return and Lamb is out, Troy Daniels would become the best sub-$4k value on DraftKings at any position.