Daily Fantasy Rundown – January 9 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Slate note: We advice playing a reduced portion of your bankroll due to a combination of the difficulty in figuring out this specific slate, the variance associated with short slates to begin with, and the unreliable flow of injury news that occurs on Saturday’s.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Stephen Curry (GS) – There is a ton of DFS potential in the Warriors-Kings game, which features the top two teams in the league in pace and not surprisingly has a 223.5 total as a result (next closest on the slate is 201.5). What is surprising is that the spread on this game is only eight points, which introduces a little bit of blowout risk but not as much as anticipated. If the game is able to stay close, the pace and the Kings poor defense (29th in defensive efficiency against point guards) give Curry a huge ceiling. Curry has looked fine after missing some time with a shin injury, but he’s been limited to 29 (last night) and 26 minutes his past two games due to large blowout victories. The biggest issue here is cost, as we’d rather focus on paying up at power forward and shooting guard even if it means not playing Curry in cash games (which are really tough to construct on this slate).
Next in line:
Kyle Lowry (TOR) – With several games having a spread around 10, we’re mostly ignoring blowout risk as an already difficult slate becomes almost impossible to construct cash game lineups if you start worrying too much about blowout risk as well. Lowry has a nice matchup against a Sixers team that not only ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency against point guards, but is playing at a much faster pace in recent weeks (up to sixth in the league in pace). Between the tempo and being on the road (hopefully helps to keep the game close), we’d rather use Lowry at a meaningful lower cost than John Wall, even though Wall is in a safer game environment.
Ish Smith (PHI) – Smith continues to be priced below the average cost of a roster spot on FanDuel, which quite frankly makes him a consistent cash game target regardless of matchup. Smith is averaging 29.8 FanDuel points in seven contests with the Sixers (value threshold is 29.4), and his minutes (28.9), usage (29.2), and assist rate (53.2) all point towards that being an accurate baseline. On DraftKings where he’s priced much more aggressively, Smith is better used in tournaments.