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July 1 Early MLB DFS: Sale Away
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Welcome to July 1 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 1 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 1 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
02:18 Starting Pitcher
09:24 Catcher
12:05 First Base
14:59 Second Base
16:40 Third Base
18:36 Shortstop
21:03 Outfield
25:00 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 1 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Though a rather large set of day games on the early slate, it is clearly lacking of starting pitching depth. Chris Sale (BOS) leads the way though – holding a DraftKings point projection of nearly five points greater than any other starting arm on the slate. The difficulty though, particularly on DraftKings, is Sale’s price tag. He’s shot up to $13,500 on DraftKings, moving him down the rankings from a per dollar perspective. Nevertheless, our lean is to find a way to fit him in, banking on some potential values thanks to injury issues around the league offensively. The Blue Jays are around the middle of the pack in terms of K% against LHP (20.8%), but Sale still projects at 1.5 strikeouts more than any other pitcher on the slate thanks to an absurd 35.2% K%.

Pairing someone with Sale on DraftKings will leave you with few options, but we’re focused on Zack Wheeler (NYM). If you are able to shield your eyes on Wheeler’s last two starts, you’ll notice that he hasn’t been “that” atrocious this season. He’s been able to record five or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts (the two lone exceptions being his last two) and he projects with the 4th highest K projection on the slate (only 0.3K’s from 2nd). We’re looking to pick on the Philadelphia Phillies as they take on a negative park shift moving to Citi Field, holding an implied run total of just 4.2 runs. The Phillies were dominated by Jacob deGrom last night and have been the fourth worst team in the league in terms of wRC+ against RHP this season while striking out the 6th most often. At $7,700, it’s a risk you can be willing to take. Cole Hamels (TEX) becomes an option on a watered down pitching slate, but he faces a White Sox team that is first in wRC+ against LHP. Nevertheless, an implied run total against of just 4.6 runs and the third highest K projection might be reason enough to give him a shot, particularly if you can’t stomach the thought of using Zack Wheeler.

Jose Berrios (MIN) would be the ideal pairing with Sale, but putting them both together will leave you an average salary remaining of just $3,150. With that being said, Berrios is a potential option on FanDuel where he provides an $1,800 discount, and he’s a great tournament pivot away from Sale. He holds the second highest strikeout projection on the slate and draws a Royals team that holds an implied run total of just four runs.

Some additional risk comes with Dylan Bundy (BAL), Jake Odorizzi (TB), Chad Kuhl (PIT), and Zach Davies (MIL) but lineups and line movements could help derive some additional value from their matchups. With the position lacking depth, we can deal with some additional risk so long as we can mitigate disaster with strikeouts.

Catcher

With the necessity of paying for Chris Sale, it’s also necessary to save at catcher on this slate. Luckily, there are a whole host of options in the low $3,000s on DraftKings and mid-$2,000s on FanDuel. Jonathan Lucroy (TEX), Wilson Ramos (TB), and Welington Castillo (BAL) all come with reasonable price tags and “acceptable” lineup spots and represent the top value options at the catcher position on this slate. Lucroy is the only one of the three that will gain the platoon edge, but it’s Ramos and Castillo who have the better game environment as it will register in the high 80s in Baltimore and the wind is expected to be blowing out to centerfield. Both Bundy and Odorizzi represent fly ball arms in a good pitchers park, and the opposing implied run totals (5.2 for the Rays, 5.8 for the Orioles) speak as such. Castillo in particular has posted a strong Hard% in the last fifteen days at 41.7%.

On DraftKings you can also get access to Alex Avila (DET) for just $3,400. Avila will “show” as facing Carlos Carrasco, but via the team website, it will be last night’s projected starter Josh Tomlin who is taking the mound in the early game. Tomlin is prone to power and Avila will come with the best lineup spot of the group plus a seasonal Hard% of 37.2%, topped just slightly in the last fifteen days. Willson Contreras (CHC) would be a great way to spend at the position if need be.

First Base

Sorting out the value at the first base position will be a tad different depending on the site you’re looking at. On DraftKings, you’ll still get Miguel Cabrera (DET) at just $3,600. There isn’t much to say about Cabrera and that price tag, but to borrow from last night’s analysis, he’s posted a 44.6% Hard% in the last fifteen days and gets the reverse splits arm of Josh Tomlin – who has allowed a .238 ISO to RHB since 2015.

Eric Thames (MIL) is still amazingly cheap on both sites as well, and he’s coming off another day out of the Milwaukee lineup. We’d expect he finds himself back in the second spot of the order ready to face Tom Koehler in his home park. Koehler is a fly ball arm that has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, allowing 2.35 HR/9 in just eight starts. He’s a bit more of a spend on DraftKings, but at just $3,200 on FanDuel he’s a great per dollar option.

Anthony Rizzo (CHC) and Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) find themselves at the top of the ranks again as well. Rizzo and the Cubs disappointed last night, but they’ll be back in a great ballpark getting the major league debut of an underwhelming right-hander in Jackson Stephens. The Cubs have the second highest implied run total on the slate, and last night’s disappointment is no reason to stray away from the best hitter on their team.

Things haven’t changed for Edwin, here is what we said last night: Encarnacion gets the human home run machine in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez is getting less ground balls than ever before and is paying for it, having allowed 2.81 HR/9 this season. At just $4,700 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel, he’s a great cash game complement.

Joey Votto (CIN), Logan Morrison (TB), and Hanley Ramirez (BOS) headline the tournament group of first basemen.

Second Base

Second base is no different than many positions on this slate, littered with potential options. Yet, it is Brian Dozier (MIN) and Dee Gordon (MIA) who find themselves at the top of our per dollar rankings. Dozier is back to sub-$4,000 on DraftKings and will face another guy making his big league debut in Luke Farrell. Farrell is more highly touted then the others twirling their first game, but he is a fly ball arm and Dozier has displayed plenty of power against both handedness (.228 ISO against RHP since 2015).

Gordon will be the road leadoff hitter and gets a matchup in Davies with a high contact arm, who has walked nearly three hitters per nine this year. Dee derives all his value from being able to get on base and go – at $2,900 on FanDuel, he’s worth the try.

Jason Kipnis (CLE) and Ian Kinsler (DET) square off in excellent matchups for offense and both will have plenty of upside in terms of home runs given the struggles of both Anibal Sanchez and Josh Tomlin with the long ball.

The Cubs have disappointed for most of the year, but both Javier Baez (CHC) and Ian Happ (CHC) have accessible price tags for either format.

Third Base

Things don’t change at third base, as Manny Machado (BAL) is still the top projected per dollar play. His price has dipped to $3,100 on FanDuel and he remains at $3,900 on DraftKings getting the fly ball arm of Jake Odorizzi. The Orioles have the highest implied run total on the slate and Machado has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. A couple 0s in a row aren’t enough to scare us away.

There is a decent divide between Machado and the rest as far as value goes. Adrian Beltre (TEX) will draw the platoon edge on Derek Holland in a good ball park. Evan Longoria (TB) gets the other side of the Machado draw, and Miguel Sano (MIN) will get Luke Farrell making his big league debut.

The aforementioned trio might carry more upside, but there is also some potential value to be had if Kris Bryant (CHC) should find himself on the bench again. Both he and Jeimer Candelario (CHC) were shaken up last night, but one way or another either provide great value if they find themselves in the lineup at Great American Ball Park.

Shortstop

The shortstop selections will be a bit site specific on this slate. Where you’ll likely need the cost savings on DraftKings, Tim Anderson (CHW) and Brandon Crawford (SF) are your top per dollar options. Anderson found himself in the leadoff spot against a left-hander the last time the White Sox faced a southpaw, and if he is there again he’s a valuable play at just $2,900 on DraftKings. Crawford won’t come with as great of a lineup spot or a park environment, but the matchup with Chad Kuhl is a bit easier to navigate. Kuhl is a fly ball arm that has struggled with his command (3.63 BB/9) and has allowed 1.04 HR/9. You’re not expecting much from these guys, but their cap savings are important.

On FanDuel it’s a bit easier to lock into the value of Addison Russell (CHC). Russell and the Cubs are one of the most enticing offenses on the slate and he’ll draw a top five lineup spot and has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. You could use Russell on DK as well, but if paying up, you might land on Xander Bogaerts (BOS) or Francisco Lindor (CLE). Lindor is our preferred cash game play of the two, drawing a matchup with Anibal Sanchez that should bring into play both his power and speed upside, but Bogaerts too represents a solid option against the volatility of Francisco Liriano. The issue is that Bogaerts lacks real event upside, posting just a .127 ISO against LHP since 2015.

Elvis Andrus (TEX) also rates well from a per dollar perspective, but we prefer his services in tournaments.

Outfield

Once again, the mid-tier is loaded with potential value on the early slate. In Baltimore, you can lock in the common value of Mark Trumbo (BAL), Seth Smith (BAL), or Mallex Smith (TB) on either site. We noted the great hitting conditions and the game total speaks to the expectation of long balls with two fly ball arms on the mound. It’s not a necessity to fit all of these players in, but they all offer upside in one facet or another while coming with cheap price tags.

Michael Conforto (NYM), Corey Dickerson (TB), and Adam Jones (BAL) represent three options that fall just below the aforementioned trio from a per dollar perspective. There hasn’t been much made of the Mets matchup with Jeremy Hellickson, but they are one of the sneakier options on this slate. Everything is working in the wrong direction for Hellickson this season as his strikeout rate is way down (11.8% K%), his GB% is down and the HR/9 is up with even just a small increase in Hard% allowed. Conforto and his teammate Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) are both excellent values on FanDuel, and a complete trio with Jay Bruce (NYM) would be an intriguing low ownership play in tournaments.

Chris Young (BOS) is a platoon master and will hopefully draw a top six lineup spot against Francisco Liriano. Billy Hamilton (CIN) just needs to find himself on base, and that’s easy to come by when you get the command problems of Eddie Butler (4.33 BB/9). And Christian Yelich (MIA) remains underpriced, getting a park shift, a great lineup spot and a matchup with Zach Davies. Oh, and reminder – Eric Thames (MIL) is OF eligible on DK.

With the sites misrepresenting the true starters in the first game of the CLE-DET double header, you might also be able to sneak some lower ownership on players like Justin Upton (DET), J.D. Martinez (DET), or Michael Brantley (CLE). In a game with two pitchers that will try to show up the other in terms of home runs allowed, they make for great tournament options.

Stacks

Tier One

1.Chicago Cubs

2.Baltimore Orioles

The Cubs and Orioles hold the highest implied run totals on the slate, and both will be taking advantage of great offensive environments. Though the Cubs in particular have been scuffling and are dealing with a less potent lineup from top to bottom, it has brought additional value to cheap players that have seen a bump up the lineup. Guys like Javier Baez (CHC) and Willson Contreras (CHC) should solidify lower ownership on slates with so many other options at their positions.

The Orioles are a more intriguing option due to the potential relationship to Jake Odorizzi on this slate. With no real SP options, there is a chance that some try to capitalize on the strikeout prone, right-handedness of the Orioles lineup. The O’s are just 17th in wRC+ against RHP, but they have the 13th best ISO and accessible price tags.

Tier Two

  1. Cleveland Indians
  2. Tampa Bay Rays
  3. New York Mets

 

Another clustered group of teams with implied run totals of greater than five runs. The Indians will get the homer prone ways of Anibal Sanchez, and as noted above, there is a chance that with the sites displaying that Jordan Zimmermann is the scheduled starter, the they come with slightly less ownership (though we would still love to pick on Zimm).

The Rays are strikeout prone, yes. They let us down last night, yes. But they have the second best ISO against RHP. Opposing pitcher Dylan Bundy has seen the strikeout rate crater, the ground ball rate do the same and consequently the HR/9 has gone up. Take aim, Rays.

The Mets should be the least owned of the group and we touched on the troubles of Jeremy Hellickson above.

Tier Three

  1. Detroit Tigers
  2. Texas Rangers

 

A pair of fallible, yet powerful offenses against weak opposing SPs in Derek Holland and Josh Tomlin, both who are prone to allowing power. Given that their implied run totals lag behind a little bit, there is a chance that both these teams go under owned, despite great price tags.

 

Additional Tournament Stacks:

Oakland Athletics

Time to bust out the obligatory stack against R.A. Dickey. The A’s are another top five ISO team against RHP, and a top ten team in terms of wRC+. They’re coming off a night where they were almost no-hit by Mike Foltynewicz, and get the 1.48 HR/9 arm of Dickey as he continues to show decline in all facets.