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July 1 Late MLB DFS: Go Cheap, Go Blue
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Welcome to July 1 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 1 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 1 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:22 Starting Pitcher
09:27 Catcher
10:49 First Base
15:16 Second Base
17:21 Third Base
19:32 Shortstop
21:46 Outfield
24:12 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 1 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) carries the top projection at the starting pitcher position. Carrasco is coming off his worst start of the season (vs. Texas, he allowed eight runs and a 62.5% hard hit rate according to fangraphs) and this matchup isn’t a gimme as the Tigers are ranked inside the top 10 in wRC+ vs. RHP. This slate is full of pitcher that won’t check out all the boxes, which puts us back in a common direction – strikeouts. Carrasco has generated a 26.7% K rate this season, backed up by a gaudy 12.3% SwStr rate. He carries the top K projection on the slate (nearly seven Ks). Carrasco is in play across all formats, but unfortunately he’s only available on DK where he’s priced accurately (FD isn’t including the doubleheader games).

Zack Greinke (ARI) is within a point of Carrasco’s projection on both sites, and he’s followed by Rich Hill (LAD). Greinke is admittedly pitching in the more difficult environment (Chase Field), but the matchup (which is already accounted for in our projections) is great. Greinke will face a Colorado offense that’s surprisingly ranked dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP, and his own K skill set is very appealing. Greinke is generating more Ks than he ever has before, striking out 28.4% of hitters this season and it’s backed up by a 13.6% SwStr rate, which is also a career best. Jumping back to the matchup – the Rockies are banged up at the moment with Carlos Gonzalez on the DL and DJ LeMahieu (out the last few nights) nursing a groin injury. We like Greinke a touch more than Carrasco in cash games given the softer matchup, but our projections give Carrasco the slim lead due to a slightly higher K projection. Hill is the wildcard of the group and a better target for tournaments. Hill has only managed to pitch over five innings once this season, and the run prevention has been gross (4.60 ERA/5.32 xFIP). He’s wildly overpriced on DK where he’s $11,300, but the matchup against San Diego (striking out over 25% of the time vs. LHP) keeps him in play. From a pricing perspective we prefer him on FD where he’s just $8,600.

On DK, you’ll be forced to go down the pricing spectrum and pair one of Carrasco or Greinke with Jason Hammel (KC) or an even cheaper Felix Jorge (MIN). Hammel is the known commodity, and his velocity has improved a bit lately. He’s also generated softer contact over his L3 starts. With that being said, let’s be honest – this is just a price/matchup play. Hammel is just $6,800 on DK and has a matchup against a middling Twins offense (middle of the pack in wRC+ and K% vs. RHP). The same can be said for Jorge, a rookie SP that had been missing bats lately in the minors but has never pitched above AA ball. He’s just $5,200 on DK and we have a K projection of five, which we’ll gladly take at that price tag and hope the run prevention isn’t awful. Ricky Nolasco (LAA) is another name to include at cheap prices. If you look at our pitching trends tool, you’ll notice that Nolasco has seen an uptick in velocity (+0.7) over his L3 starts and he’s limited hard contact to 16.9% (negative delta of 8.9) while generating a bigger GB rate. Our projections won’t catch these recent positive trends for Nolasco,  but based off that and an IRTA that is very similar to most SPs in this slate (low 4s) we think he’s worth it in all formats.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position. He’s simply too expensive to consider in cash games on DK, but $3,700 on FD is a viable spend in all formats given the condensed slate on that site (doesn’t include the highest total game in the slate between CLE and DET).

We’d rather save salary at the position with Austin Barnes (LAD), who’s our top value at the catcher position on both sites. Barnes isn’t a great hitter, but we have a .156 ISO as a baseline for him when he has the platoon edge, and he’s facing a pitcher that doesn’t miss any bats (Dillon Overton).

Evan Gattis (HOU) is our favorite splits the difference alternative around the industry. Gattis will have the platoon edge for an Astros offense that has an IRT of five runs. Since 2015, Gattis has generated a .218 ISO vs. LHP.

If Salvador Perez (KC) is in the lineup for the second game of the doubleheader, he can be considered in tournaments against rookie SP. Perez’s HHR over the L15 is up to 35.5%.

First Base

Ideally, you want Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) in your cash game lineups but he’s only available on DK where the price tag is fair. Encarnacion has a matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who’s missing more bats lately but the contact he’s allowing won’t help his run prevention woes. Zimmermann’s hard minus soft hit rate is sitting at 25% this season, and the GB rate is down to career low levels (33%). We don’t have a line for this game just yet, but our guess is that the Indians will have an IRT over five runs. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is right behind E5 in projection with a full price tag on both sites. We prefer him in tournaments though the lack of options at the position keeps him in the cash game conversation on FD.

The other route at the position is simply cutting the mid-tier and going after Albert Pujols (LAA). Pujols is $3,200 on DK and sub $3,000 on FD, and his HHR is up to 31.9% over the L15. Pujols is a shell of the hall of fame hitter he once was, but there’s still some power in that bat (11 HRs, ZiPS projects 13 more for the ROS).

Mark Reynolds (COL) has a solid price tag on FD ($3,200), but the matchup against Zack Greinke is not one we want to pick on in cash games. Reynolds is fine in tournaments. Cody Bellinger (LAD) won’t have the platoon edge and that’s a big ding to his projection as a LHB, but a matchup against Dillon Overton (12% K rate in his career) makes him a viable tournament target even at appropriate price tags. It’s a very tiny sample (65 PAs) and certainly not a sample to draw conclusions from, but Bellinger’s production vs. LHP has been excellent (.390 ISO). If you don’t want to rely on production due to the small sample, his hard hit rate paints a similar picture (47% HHR vs. LHP). Luis Valbuena (LAA) is just $2,700 on DK and he will have the platoon edge. He’s viable in tournaments.

Second Base

Jose Altuve (HOU) is the top projected scorer at second base. Altuve will have the platoon edge, and since 2015 he’s generated a .365 wOBA and .173 ISO (very similar to the baselines we have for him) vs. LHP. Altuve is expensive but reachable on FD where you won’t have to dish out much salary for an elite SP.

Logan Forsythe (LAD) is our top value at the position on both sites. Forsythe comes with cheap prices around the industry and while he hasn’t been very good this season, the production vs. LHP is enticing. We have a .351 wOBA and .198 ISO baseline for Forsythe when he has the platoon edge, and the one he’s facing today isn’t any good.

On DK, Brian Dozier (MIN) is somehow just $3,700 vs. Jason Hammel (.176 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015). This goes without saying, but the price tag alone in a matchup you’re not scared of makes Dozier an attractive play in all formats.

Jason Kipnis (CLE) is viable in tournaments against Jordan Zimmermann, who’s having the worst season of his career.

Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez (LAD) are other Dodgers with second base eligibility and good lineup spots vs. LHP.

Third Base

Jake Lamb (ARI) and Miguel Sano (MIN) represent the top projected scorers in the hot corner. If you wanted to split exposure here, Lamb is $3,900 on FD, which is a reachable price tag on a condensed slate that doesn’t have many attractive offensive options. Sano isn’t available on FD, but he’s just $4,200 on DK and on the latter site Lamb is priced out of reach for cash games. Sano has the more attractive matchup while Lamb is hitting in the superior environment (Chase Field).

Logan Forsythe (LAD) has 3b eligibility on DK and a cheap price tag. Luis Valbuena (LAA) has a punt price tag on FD ($2,300) and he has a matchup against Sam Gaviglio (15% K rate, 4.70 xFIP).

If you want to split the difference on FD, Justin Turner (LAD) is a fine target. Dillon Overton sucks, and the bullpen behind him is subpar.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (CLE) carries the top projection at the shortstop position and he’s a hitter you want to prioritize in cash games at a thin position. Lindor has the best context at the position and he’s the lone positive value at the position DK.

The position is a bit trickier on FD where we don’t have Lindor. Carlos Correa (HOU) with the platoon edge represents a desirable target, but you’ll have to pay a steep price tag ($4,200).  Jean Segura (SEA) is a viable drop down alternative from Correa at $3,400, but he’s also a drop down in terms of skills. If you wanted to go cheap at a position with very little opportunity cost, Trevor Story (COL) is fine. The matchup isn’t good, but he does have a power skill set, he’s hitting in a good park and there’s a chance that he sticks in the middle of the lineup with a banged up Rockies’ lineup.

Corey Seager (LAD) won’t have the platoon edge, but this isn’t a L/L matchup we’re afraid of. We like Seager in tournaments and we’re hopeful that the L/L matchup keeps his ownership low.

Outfield

George Springer (HOU) represents the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. He’s priced appropriately around the industry, but we’re still pursuing him in all formats given the excellent skills. Springer has generated a .419 wOBA and .284 ISO vs. LHP since 2015, and his HHR over the L15 is sitting at 36.2%. Jordan Montgomery is missing bats, but he has a 40% FB rate and a 4.27 xFIP. Bryce Harper (WSH) is right behind Springer in projection. He’s not in a good hitting environment, but the matchup against Michael Wacha isn’t a big threat. Wacha has been a reverse splits pitcher for most of his career, but this season his control has been an issue (allowing more walks) and he’s allowed more power to LHBs.

The OF is a position you can grab exposure to good pieces from our favorite offenses in the slate. Michael Brantley (CLE) with the platoon edge and a middling price tag makes him the top OF value on DK. Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor (LAD) are sub $3,000 on FD. Taylor hits leadoff and Kike hits cleanup vs. LHP. Taylor has become a decent event player (nine HRs, 10 SBs so far this season) and Kike is a very good hitter vs. southpaws (.400 wOBA, .287 ISO vs. LHP since 2015 – 304 PAs). David Peralta (ARI) is a fine alternative on both sites with a price tag that isn’t prohibitive. Arizona has an IRT that’s approaching five runs.

We’d rather pick on Zack Greinke in tournaments, but Charlie Blackmon (COL) has a price tag that’s difficult to ignore on DK ($4,400). Nelson Cruz (SEA) enters the tournament conversation given his strong power skills and a matchup against Ricky Nolasco (.201 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015).

Stacks 

Tier One

1) Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is by far our top ranked offense in this slate. They have the best context of any offense tonight, as they’ll take on Jordan Zimmermann and the worst bullpen in the majors (highest ERA/xFIP and allowing the most HRs of any pen in the league). They’ll be chalky, but you’re eating the chalk in cash games and it’ll be hard to fade them completely in GPPs.

Tier Two

2) Los Angeles Dodgers

3) Houston Astros

If you’re fading Cleveland in tournaments, you’re going hard after the Dodgers’ studs LHBs (Bellinger/Seager), mixed in with some of their RHBs that are more likely to carry higher ownership. The Astros look like a team that will have strong ownership in this slate and they likely will on FD due to the condensed slate, but on DK they’re expensive and the SPs we like are all expensive as well. Giving the platoon edge to those power RHBs makes them a great upside stack in tournaments.

Tier Three

4) Washington Nationals

5) Seattle Mariners

The Nationals’ stack will certainly take a hit now with Trea Tuner out for the season, but this is a lineup that’s still has a good combination of elite hitters in Harper/Murphy along with the Zimmerman/Rendon bounceback seasons. You can mini-stack them in tournaments. We’re a little more bullish on the Mariners given the recent positive trends that Ricky Nolasco has going for him, but that doesn’t mean you can’t pick on him. Nolasco is sporting a career worse 2.28 HR/9 this season.

Additional Tournament Stack

New York Yankees – The Astros’ bullpen has been very good this season, so this is a play on the starting pitcher Francis Martes (5.51 ERA/5.50 xFIP through three starts). Not only do the Yankees have power in Judge and Sanchez, but Gardner and Ellbsury add an element of speed and Gregorius has decent pop at a shallow position.