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July 1 MLB DFS: Cash In On The Red Sox
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July 1 MLB DFS: Cash In On The Red Sox

00:42 Starting Pitchers
07:32 Catchers
10:00 First Base
13:34 Second Base
16:27 Shortstop
18:45 Third Base
20:58 Outfield
24:45 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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July 1 MLB DFS Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Johnny Cueto (SF)

2) Jacob deGrom (NYM)

Tier Two

3) Jaime Garcia (STL)

4) Julio Teheran (ATL)

Tier Three

5) Nathan Eovaldi (NYY)

6) Michael Fulmer (DET)

7) Jason Hammel (CHC)

8) Sonny Gray (OAK)

9) Ian Kennedy (KC)

10) Bud Norris (LAD)

11) Mike Fiers (HOU)

It’s another night where the top starting pitchers in tier one don’t have a massive gap between them and the rest of the options as context isn’t great. Johnny Cueto (SF) is a decent sized favorite but gets a large negative park shift against a decent Diamondbacks offense. His skills and Arizona’s propensity to strike out keeps Cueto atop our rankings, but he’s only a secondary value as better per dollar options exist. The same can be said for Jacob deGrom (NYM) on FanDuel, but on DraftKings there’s a bit more viability. deGrom has rebounded from a poor start, posting a very impressive 26.9 K-BB% in June. That was higher than just his K percentage from the previous two months. The Cubs offense has cooled down a little bit and will strike out.

However, this really is a night, if you want to, that you could go straight value plays on both sites. On FanDuel, Julio Teheran (ATL) is underpriced. Like deGrom Teheran has pitched better as the season has progressed, posting K-BB percentages from April through June of 10.9, 18.4, and 24.6. He’ll face a Marlins team that usually just throws out three LHBs (good for Teheran’s massive splits). Ranked one spot ahead of him in tier three is Jaime Garcia (STL), who is better priced on both sites. Garcia has a 4.09 ERA, but a better than league average hard minus soft hit rate indicates that his BABIP and HR/FB rate (both worse than career and league averages) have been unlucky. He’s a high -165 favorite in his friendly home park against a Brewers team that is currently 25th in wRC+ against LHP while posting the sixth highest K rate in that split.

If you really want to save money at starting pitching on DraftKings, Nathan Eovaldi (NYY) is a phenomenal play at just $5,400. Context couldn’t be much better for Eovaldi as he gets a massive park shift in his favor, plays an NL team without the DH, and plays a Padres team with one of the worst offenses versus RHP. In his tier, Michael Fulmer (DET) (one of the highest projected K percentages on the slate) is a really fun tournament play but is a touch pricey for our liking in cash game formats.

Catcher Rankings

1) Buster Posey (SF)

2) Brian McCann (NYY)

3) Victor Martinez (DET) (where eligible)

4) Yasmani Grandal (LAD)

5) Salvador Perez (KC)

At a position where no options rank as positive values in our model, it’s viable to pay all the way up for Buster Posey (SF) given the huge park shift and our liking of a Giants stack. However, there are top options at other positions that rate as positive values so fine to simply save a little money here by simply taking the catcher value in our model that’s highest rated and fits after filling out the rest of your roster.

First Base Rankings

1) David Ortiz (BOS)

2) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

3) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

4) Eris Hosmer (KC)

5) Brandon Belt (SF)

First base is a position we’d really like to pay up at as David Ortiz (BOS) has a juicy home matchup against Jhoulys Chacin and a bad Angels bullpen, leading to a slate high implied run total of six for the Red Sox. As you’ve heard from us many times this year – this is the leading player on the leading offense in MLB with the highest run total on this particular day. There are some okay mid-tier alternatives, like Kendrys Morales (KC) (huge positive delta in our well-hit tool) on DraftKings, who gets a plus park shift and may hit third against Jeremy Hellickson. In tournaments a couple of our favorable options are Brandon Belt (SF) (as part of a Giants stack) and Chris Davis (BAL) (will go so low owned due to L/L and bad park but Wade LeBlanc has allowed a .390 wOBA and .219 ISO to LHBs over his career).

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Brian Dozier (MIN)

3) Matt Carpenter (STL)

4) Robinson Cano (SEA)

5) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Jose Altuve (HOU) is similar to David Ortiz as he’s the best hitter on another of our favorite stacks, and that definitely makes him cash viable. However, if you want to pay up in the outfield you may need to go a bit cheaper here. If Christian Adames (COL) continues to get a good lineup spot while filling in for a banged up Rockies outfield, he makes for a great punt on DraftKings. Another mid-low option there is in that same game in Howie Kendrick (LAD), who has consistently been receiving good lineup spots recently and will face Jorge de la Rosa (.344 wOBA, .186 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2014). The comparable option to Kendrick on FanDuel is Brian Dozier (MIN). We’ve been expecting a turnaround for Dozier and are getting it: +0.5 delta in our well-hit tool, up to a .206 ISO. Derek Dietrich (MIA) is one of the better industry wide options if leading off (not optimistic on Marlins offense collectively, but decent pop and poor splits for Teheran against LHBs).

Shortstop Rankings

1) Carlos Correa (HOU)

2a) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

2b) Manny Machado (where eligible)

4) Eduardo Nunez (MIN)

5) Brad Miller (TB)

On DraftKings we’re tempted to simply pay up for Carlos Correa (HOU) as multiple value pitchers give you the room to do so and the alternative options aren’t priced as nicely as on FanDuel. On that site, you can get Xander Bogaerts (BOS) at a very friendly $3,300 tag to get exposure to Boston, or you can full punt with Trevor Story (COL) (health risk), as it’s rare to find a player with legitimate upside and a decent lineup spot at a punt price on FanDuel now a days.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Nolan Arenado (COL)

3) Luis Valbuena (HOU)

4) Eduardo Nunez (MIN) (where eligible)

5) Matt Carpenter (STL) (where eligible)

6) Justin Turner (LAD)

The third base position is the one spot where we really don’t have a top option we feel compelled to pay for. Manny Machado (BAL) is in a decent spot, but both he and LeBlanc are a little reverse splitsy with a lower implied run total than expected. As a result, we’re looking a bit more the value route with Nolan Arenado (COL) (Bud Norris is good on RHBs but not that good, leaving Arenado underpriced even on the road) or Justin Turner (LAD) (way past his cold start, good lineup spot with the platoon edge against a bad pitcher). On FanDuel, the options are completely different with Luis Valbuena (HOU) (could hit second with the platoon edge on homer prone Miguel Gonzalez) and Trevor Plouffe (MIN) (Martin Perez and the bullpen behind him are subpar; Plouffe has okay pop against LHP) looking like the best two.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Mookie Betts (BOS)

3) George Springer (HOU)

4) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

5) Shin-Soo Choo (TEX)

6) Christian Yelich (MIA)

7) Nomar Mazara (TEX)

8) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

9) Denard Span (SF)

10) Ryan Braun (MIL)

11) Alex Gordon (KC)

12) Odubel Herrera (PHI)

13) Ian Desmod (TEX)

14) Matt Holliday (STL)

15) Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY)

There’s a weird situation up top where Mike Trout (LAA) due to his awesome individual skills and our model’s admitted difficulty dealing with the knuckle baller Steven Wright have Trout as by far the top option. We’re ranking him there (park shift helps a bunch too), but we prefer him in tournaments. Even at similar pricing, we feel a bit more comfortable going to Mookie Betts (BOS) and George Springer (HOU) in cash games as they are two high event leadoff hitters for our top two stacks on the night. Carlos Gonzalez/Charlie Blackmon (COL) seem to have been docked too hard just because it’s a road game, particularly on DraftKings. While Bud Norris is pitching well, let’s keep in mind he’s allowed a .355 wOBA and .187 ISO to LHBs for his career. Other industry wide options include Christian Yelich (MIA) (good one off play given Teheran’s .334 wOBA and .180 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2014) and Alex Gordon (KC) (underpriced since his return; hitting second against Jeremy Hellickson and his 31.9 hard hit rate allowed to LHBs. The price tags on Shin-Soo Choo/Nomara Mazara (TEX) aren’t great but reasonable and a way to get access to a Rangers offense that has a high implied run total of 5 against Ervin Santana and a bad Twins bullpen. The best tournament options mostly include outfielders from our favorite stacks that don’t necessarily rate as strong individual values.

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Boston Red Sox

Tier Two

2) Houston Astros

3) San Francisco Giants

Tier Three

4) Texas Rangers

There’s a decent sized gap between our top three stacks and the rest of the offenses on the slate. With the same line of thinking that has us preferring Betts/Springer to Trout in cash games, you can sort of force exposure to these three offenses in cash games if going the value route at starting pitcher, especially on DraftKings where you’re allowed a bit more flexibility in roster construction.

Additional Tournament Stacks

-Baltimore Orioles (lower implied run total than expected but LeBlanc has never really stuck at the MLB level for a reason; his reverse splits leave Chris Davis as one of our favorite tournament options on the slate)

-Minnesota Twins (a bit lukewarm here in cash games since Perez keeps the ball on the ground, but he can also put up a disaster start given the combination of a low K rate and high BB rate; bullpen behind him is poor)

MLB Daily Analysis

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