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July 10 MLB DFS: Eaton Out on Sunday
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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July 10 MLB DFS: Eaton Out on Sunday

01:05 Starting Pitchers
12:53 Catchers
15:25 First Base
18:50 Second Base
21:43 Shortstop
24:30 Third Base
19:15 Outfield
31:17 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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July 10 MLB DFS Pro Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

2) David Price (TB)

Tier Two

3) Steven Matz (NYM) – health risk?

4) John Lackey (CHC)

5) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)

6) Dallas Keuchel (HOU)

7) Gio Gonzalez (WAS)

8) Junior Guerra (MIL)

Tier Three

9) Tom Koehler (MIA)

10) Mike Leake (STL)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) and David Price (BOS) lead off our starting pitcher rankings on the final day of the first half. The two have very different matchups that leads to slightly different production profiles but ultimately leaves them ranked similarly. Carrasco faces a Yankees’ offense that ranks 24th in wRC+ against RHP but has the fifth lowest K Rate against RHP this season. They’re not particularly intimidating, especially away from Yankee Stadium’s short porch but they don’t provide a lot of upside. Price will face the Rays who lead the league in wRC+ against LHP and are getting a huge park shift, especially for RH power, but they also have the third highest K Rate against LHP (24 percent). Price’s matchup comes with all sorts of run prevention risk, but the strikeouts should be there. Despite the disparity in offenses, Vegas has given Price an implied run total against of 3.8 while Carrasco’s is right around 3.6. While Carrasco feels safer, the safety in K Rate for Price neutralizes the effects in matchup. Price is a much heavier favorite (-225 vs. -126) and is cheaper on both sites. This can change via lineups but our initial lean is to pay for Price who has the largest K upside on the entire slate. There are plenty of elite scoring environments on this slate to attack high-end hitting but without Coors Field on the main slate, there are enough values to make it work.

The second tier is where you’ll find a complement on DraftKings and if you’re unsure of paying heftier price tags for Carrasco and Price, you could ultimately find two starters here. Steven Matz (NYM) heads up our tier in a matchup that appears tough on paper against the Nationals who rank third in wRC+ against LHP and have just the 23rd highest K Rate. However, the loss of Ryan Zimmerman weakens the lineup against LHP meaningfully. Throw in the potential for Michael Taylor over Ben Revere (hefty K Rate bump) and perhaps Wilson Ramos getting a day off after a night game and there are lots of outs for Matz to face a very soft lineup. In fact, if Taylor was in and Ramos sat, Matz would be in a second tier of his own. The health concerns with Matz are similar to those of Syndergaard. He’s pitching through bone spurs in his elbow and it’s impacted a few starts. Last time out he was fine and start-to-start it’s difficult to predict how he’ll feel. As a result, if you only want to consider him in tournaments that’s fine, but the price tag on DraftKings is discounted for his skill set ($8,400). The other options for pairing include Masahiro Tanaka (NYY), Dallas Keuchel (HOU), and Gio Gonzalez (WAS). None of the trio have particularly compelling matchups on paper (though this could change with lineups). The Mets rank 16th in wRC+ against LHP (though they do strikeout a lot), the Athletics rank 17th against LHP (and don’t strikeout at all), and the Indians rank fifth in wRC+ against RHP. Lineups will ultimately shift preference around here but Keuchel appears the steadiest and Gonzalez with the strongest upside from this tier.

In tournaments, the second tier is a nice place to shop on FanDuel. On DraftKings, we’re really intrigued by the $4,700 price tag on Tom Koehler (MIA). The Reds rank 29th in wRC+ against RHP and have the eighth highest K Rate (22.5 percent). Koehler gets the benefit of pitching in controlled conditions which on a July slate of afternoon games is a relatively big advantage as the ball won’t fly quite as well as it does around the league. This brings down the overall ceiling of pitchers and makes a guy like Koehler at half the price of tier two options as someone who can match them in 25-30 percent of his outings. With so much hitting on the slate, using Koehler as a second starter allows you one elite SP with upside and the salary relief to stack some of our favorite power offenses. The same can be said for Mike Leake (STL) who is a little more expensive and facing a better offense in a better park but an offense that does strikeout often.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

2) Willson Contreras (CHC)

3) J.T. Realmuto (MIA)

4) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

5) Russell Martin (TOR)

Victor Martinez (DET) is our top-ranked catcher option where eligible on FanDuel. He’s getting a nice big park shift and ranks within our Top 40 overall hitters. He’s a touch pricey relative to the field so we’re looking to Willson Contreras (CHC) or J.T. Realmuto (MIA) as more cost effective cash game options. Contreras projects as a monster against LHP so despite the very difficult park environment for RHBs, he’s likely going to be on base a few times. Jon Niese has allowed a .350 wOBA and .175 ISO to RHBs since the start of 2015. Realmuto isn’t as skilled a hitter but has a similarly weak LHP and generally a cheaper price tag. Neither player has big power upside due to environment, which makes Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) or Russell Martin (TOR) great pivots in tournaments. As always, on Sundays with more backup catchers in play it’s also viable to punt the position. We’ll tackle any options that come up via alerts.

First Base Rankings

1) Chris Davis (BAL)

2) David Ortiz (BOS)

3) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

4) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

5) Freddie Freeman (ATL)

6) Jose Abreu (CHW)

First base is really loaded. The six ranked hitters above all rank inside our Top 20 overall hitters and have big power upside in their individual matchups. All six are in elite hitting environments for power, so we’re left sorting through price points to evaluate value. David Ortiz (BOS) and Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) are consistently the most expensive options. Chris Davis (BAL) comes with a slight discount over those two and has the highest HR score in our model. Lincecum has been better against LHBs than RHBs in recent years and a lot of his wOBA allowed is via walks as opposed to power but this is a very difficult park shift for Lincecum and the Angels bullpen behind him is all righties and few that you’d be concerned with. The slight discount on Davis makes him a preferred target over the other elite options. Miguel Cabrera (DET) comes even cheaper on both sites but has a tricky matchup with R.A. Dickey. As a result, if going value we’re more likely to drop down further to Jose Abreu (CHW) who faces Mike Foltynewicz (.347 wOBA, .171 ISO allowed to RHBs as a big leaguer).

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Rougned Odor (TEX) – if hitting third

3) Robinson Cano (SEA)

4) Ian Kinsler (DET)

5) Brian Dozier (MIN)

6) Greg Garcia (STL) – where eligible

7) Logan Forsythe (TB)

8) Ben Zobrist (CHC)

9) Jace Peterson (ATL)

10) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

Second base is a unique position on the two sites. On FanDuel, Greg Garcia (STL) remains essentially free ($2,100) making him an excellent option as a road leadoff hitter at a relatively thin position. Guerra has gotten really good results against lefties and righties despite allowing a ton of hard contact (36.5 percent to LHBs) and has walked over 10 percent of the LHBs he’s faced. On DraftKings, the values are less overt. Jace Peterson (ATL) is finally priced above $3,000 ($3,500) and James Shields allows more power than speed. It’s not a bad price for a road leadoff hitter, but it’s not the ideal matchup for Peterson’s game. Neil Walker (NYM) is really cheap given the improving skill set against LHP this season but it’s a relatively low scoring environment. As a result, we’re looking at paying all the way up for Jose Altuve (HOU) who has mashed LHP (.422 wOBA, .181 ISO since 2015) and gets Sean Manaea who has been mashed by RHBs (.383 wOBA, .210 ISO allowed as a big leaguer) and is getting a big park downgrade. Altuve is fully priced but he’s also a Top Five hitter overall in our model and the position is relatively thin. Robinson Cano (SEA) looks like an excellent tournament play on this slate. An expensive tag should hold ownership down and Dillon Gee (.355 wOBA, .171 ISO since 2013 against LHBs) has been hit very hard by lefties throughout his career.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL) – where eligible

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

4) Eduardo Nunez (MIN)

5) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

6) Aledmys Diaz (STL)

7) Tim Anderson (CHW)

8) Jose Reyes (NYM)

9) Greg Garcia (STL) – where eligible

10) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

Manny Machado (BAL) tops our shortstop rankings where eligible and is also a Top Five hitter on this slate. Lincecum has been really mashed by RHBs (.363 wOBA, .199 ISO since 2014) and most of that has been in the National League in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Now he has to face a RH power heavy lineup in one of the better parks for home runs in the league. Machado’s an excellent spend but the position isn’t limited to just him. Carlos Correa (HOU) gets that favorable matchup with Sean Manaea we noted for Altuve and ranks towards the edge of our Top 10 overall hitters on this slate. He’s got a more favorable price tag on DraftKings than Machado but also one of the most favorable price tags on the slate on FanDuel ($3,000). He’s a lock over there. For value, Greg Garcia (STL) is just $2,500 and carries SS and 3B eligibility on DraftKings. With the alternatives at SS more properly priced on DraftKings the opportunity cost at shortstop isn’t bad, so he’s a fine salary relief option and strong value.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

3) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

4) Kris Bryant (CHC)

5) Miguel Sano (MIN) – where eligible

6) Eduardo Nunez (MIN) – where eligible

7) Evan Longoria (TB)

8) Greg Garcia (STL) – where eligible

9) Martin Prado (MIA)

10) Todd Frazier (CHW)

We touched on Manny Machado (BAL) at shortstop and he’s someone we love at third base as well. On FanDuel, the Texas game isn’t in the main slate and Josh Donaldson (TOR) is priced way up so we’re leaning on Machado as our foundation in cash games. On DraftKings, Adrian Beltre (TEX) is uniquely cheap ($4,000) for a great matchup with Tommy Milone (.340 wOBA, .174 ISO allowed since 2014 to RHBs). The Rangers have an implied team total approaching six runs, making Beltre an excellent value and a viable drop-down from spending all the way up on Machado.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

3) Adam Eaton (CHW)

4) Mookie Betts (BOS)

5) Ian Desmond (TEX)

6) George Springer (HOU)

7) Ryan Braun (MIL)

8) Kris Bryant (CHC) – where eligible

9) Adam Jones (BAL)

10) Marcell Ozuna (MIA)

11) Melky Cabrera (CHW)

12) Mark Trumbo (BAL)

13) Miguel Sano (MIN)

14) Bryce Harper (WAS)

15) Matt Holliday (STL) – health risk

Mike Trout (LAA) remains atop our overall rankings thanks to a huge park shift in his favor and Chris Tillman‘s reverse splits (.319 wOBA, .186 ISO since 2014 to RHBs) that yield a lot of power. It’s a matchup with lots of power upside for Trout but one that our model might be over-valuing given Tillman works up in the zone and Trout is more dominant in the lower half. He’s priced appropriately, so he’s not a priority spend for us. Adam Eaton (CHW) is a name that might surprise subscribers as he makes a rare appearance in our Top 10 overall hitters. Mike Foltynewicz has been obliterated by LHBs at the major league level (.415 wOBA, .297 ISO since 2014) and Eaton (.358 wOBA, .164 ISO since 2015) has been very good against RHP while also getting a speed bump in the matchup against either Pierzynski or Flowers behind the plate. He’s an exceptional value on FanDuel ($2,800) but someone we also like quite a bit on DraftKings ($4,200) with a price tag that some may view as fair. In this matchup, we view it as discounted. Both sites have unique pricing in the outfield so it’s more about attacking price points. On FanDuel, George Springer (HOU) and Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) aren’t priced like truly elite options and we love their matchups against LHP. Springer (.414 wOBA, .252 ISO) and Stanton (.430 wOBA, .429 ISO) have been among the best hitters in the league against LHP since the start of last season. On DraftKings, Matt Holliday (STL) is uniquely cheap ($2,800) against Junior Guerra and is a great value play if he can shake the ankle issue that had him as a late scratch yesterday. Melky Cabrera (CHW), Marcell Ozuna (MIA), and Hyun-Soo Kim (BAL) are also mid-priced values you can attack in cash games.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Baltimore Orioles

2) Toronto Blue Jays

3) Texas Rangers

Tier Two

4) Boston Red Sox

5) Chicago White Sox

Tier Three

6) Miami Marlins

7) Houston Astros

The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers lead the first tier of stack rankings. All three offenses have huge power upside against their respective starters and the RH power from all three is where we’d like to get exposure. The Red Sox and White Sox are strong secondary stacks and the cheap price tags on the White Sox make them a very compelling stack in tournaments because of the elite SP you can pair them with. The Astros seem a little underrated in our stack rankings but Manaea’s well under-performed his baselines and the Athletics pen is hurting a bit without Doolittle. They’re also a very strong tournament target as we figure the Jays, Red Sox and Orioles will represent some of the more popular stacks.

Contrarian Stacks:

Atlanta Braves – The Braves have flashed power upside in the hot weather and friendly confines in Chicago. They’re also very cheap which allows you to pair them with high-end starting pitching. They’re not a full stack option but as a mini-stack paired with an elite offense they give you some differentiation while allowing salary relief to fit some elite SP alongside the mini-stack pairs.

Seattle Mariners – It’s basically a bullpen day for both the Mariners and Royals. Dillon Gee draws the start and the Royals bullpen without Wade Davis is a lot less intimidating. Warm temperatures should help KC play hitter friendlier than we’re accustomed and hefty price tags on all the Mariners should keep ownership very low. Gee is very vulnerable to LH power and the Mariners have plenty of it.

MLB Daily Analysis

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