Welcome to July 14 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 14 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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July 14 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:38 Starting Pitcher
14:53 First Base
18:01 Second Base
20:04 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
July 14 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Jacob deGrom (NYM) is the top projected scorer as we return from the All Star Break. deGrom is the most talented starter on the slate, comes with the second lowest implied total against (3.7), and gets a Rockies’ offense that has slipped to dead last in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K Rate (22.6 percent). It’s a nice matchup for deGrom but a full price tag ($10,900 on FanDuel and $11,800 on DraftKings) leaves room for alternatives at the position.
Our primary alternatives to deGrom are Johnny Cueto (SF), Carlos Carrasco (CLE), and Charlie Morton (HOU) who are three of the other four starters with implied totals against below four (Gerrit Cole is the fourth). There are certainly some warning signs with Cueto. His average FB velocity was at a seasonal low (89.4 mph – two mph lower than season opener) and his swinging strike rates/strikeout rates have dipped as the season has worn on. The good news is the matchup. Cueto faces a Padres’ offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ against RHP and leads the league in K Rate against RHP (26.1 percent) by a wide margin. Cueto’s price tag is no longer that of an ace which makes it a bit easier to swallow the drop-off in skills. However, the gap in pricing from other options is more pronounced on DraftKings than on FanDuel. On FanDuel, Carlos Carrasco is priced similarly and comes with more strikeout upside against a more intimidating Athletics offense (ninth in wRC+ against RHP) but one with similar K upside (25.4 K Rate). At just $500 more than Cueto on FanDuel, our lean would be to build through Carrasco’s more stable skill set. On DraftKings, Carrasco is the highest priced pitcher and like deGrom makes for a viable target though a poor overall value relative to his peers. This makes Cueto a more favorable target on DraftKings. Regardless of your priority for SP1 on DraftKings, Charlie Morton looks like your best complementary target with a $6,900 price tag. Morton gets the benefit of an elite defense, bullpen, and run support combination that helps foster secondary Fantasy points. Morton’s posted an impressive K Rate (just shy of 25 percent) along with a strong GB Rate (50 percent) and the Twins’ lineup without Joe Mauer gets a bit more strikeout prone. Morton is the biggest favorite on the slate (-170) and comes with the fourth lowest implied total against. For $6,900, he’s a strong cash game target on DraftKings.
In tournaments, Justin Verlander (DET), Gerrit Cole (PIT), Drew Pomeranz (BOS), James Paxton (SEA), and Taijuan Walker (ARI) have compelling upside relative to their price tags. Zach Davies (MIL) is also an interesting target but comes with a better price tag on FanDuel ($7,200) and the same can be said for Jon Gray (COL) at $6,600.
Buster Posey (SF) and Gary Sanchez (NYY) lead the way in terms of raw projection, but it’s Posey that stands out as the best value on both sites. Posey won’t draw a kind offensive park in San Diego, but the matchup with Clayton Richard and a declining price tag make him attractive nonetheless. He’s historically been a menace against LHP and this season has shown a nice power surge as well, posting his highest ISO (.175) since 2015. At just $3,800 on DraftKings – he is the preferred cash game option. On FanDuel the conversation can shift, as Sanchez is just $3,200 and comes with much more upside and a better offensive environment, but a more difficult matchup with Drew Pomeranz. In his brief career, Sanchez has posted a .271 ISO against LHP.
After Posey and Sanchez, a trio of less enticing options does emerge as potential salary space plays with Alex Avila (DET), Mike Zunino (SEA), and Brian McCann (HOU) filling out the top five catchers from a per dollar perspective. Avila has been the best of the bunch and will draw the best lineup spot – costing you just $2,700 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings.
A stacked first base position gives us plenty of options to choose from. The Brewers offense continues to be “no joke” and Eric Thames (MIL) has been right in the middle of it, posting a hefty .314 ISO and a healthy wake rate. He enters the second half as the most valuable first baseman on both sites, holding a sub-$5,000 price tag on DraftKings and sitting at just $3,500 on FanDuel. Nick Pivetta has generated strikeouts, but has also struggled with command and has yielded 1.83 HR/9 this season – this is a great spot for Thames in cash games and tournaments.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) and Anthony Rizzo (CHC) cluster just behind Thames from a per dollar perspective and Rizzo and Goldschmidt project better in raw totals. Goldy’s absurd speed/power upside has potential to play against R.A. Dickey, who has been around his career average as far as allowing home runs, but has generated less strikeouts and more walks than last year. Rizzo’s matchup with Kevin Gausman is another enticing one as the Cubs move to a friendly park for LHB power in Camden Yards. Gausman has been bad this season, posting a 4.90 xFIP while walking nearly four hitters per nine and allowing plenty of hard contact. Rizzo has remained one of the Cubs lone bright spots, and he’s priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings.
The list doesn’t end there. On DraftKings you’ll have the option to roster Freddie Freeman (ATL). The matchup with Taijuan Walker opens up some power potential, as Walker has allowed a .194 ISO to LHB since 2015. Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) has had a monster year for the Nats, and he’s priced at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel. Zimmerman and the Nats will get a nice boost playing in Great American Ball Park, and though Tim Adleman has seen a bump in strikeouts, he’s allowing a ton of balls in the air and more than two home runs per nine innings. If you’re not spending for the big guns, Zimmerman is a healthy alternative.
Obligatory: Miguel Cabrera (DET) is still stupid cheap on DraftKings.
It is Jonathan Villar (MIL) and Robinson Cano (SEA) at the top of the second base position on Friday. Villar, having found himself back at the top of the order, will draw the aforementioned matchup with Nick Pivetta. Not many players come with the power/speed upside that Villar does, and we’re now getting him at a great price tag at just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel. The Brewers share the highest implied run total on the slate, and Villar is a great way to get exposure to the top of their lineup.
Cano and the Mariners share that honor with the Brewers as they get a great park shift in their favor moving to Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago to face James Shields. Juiced ball or not, James Shields has been a dream for opposing hitters, particularly those looking to hit the ball out of the park. He’s allowed 2.48 HR/9 in his short work this season, after allowing nearly two home runs per nine in close to 200 innings last year. A 6.11 xFIP, and increasing walk numbers as well should be enough for you to consider Cano, who is having another year of returned power (.206 ISO). He’s just $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel and he rates slightly ahead of Villar in terms of overall projection.
Brian Dozier (MIN) and Rougned Odor (TEX) both rate just behind Villar and Cano from a per dollar perspective, but it’s Daniel Murphy (WSH) who falls in line next for tournament play. Murphy will give you more exposure to the Nats, and a surprising amount of upside given a .225 ISO against RHP since 2015.
Another deep position, third base has a ton of potential options on Friday. As far as the sites go, there is quite a difference in terms of overall value as Kyle Seager (SEA) leads the way on DraftKings while Kris Bryant (CHC) and Freddie Freeman (ATL) are the cream of the crop on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, it’s the salary that pushes Seager up to the top, at just $3,300 he opens up the doors at all the other offensive positions and starting pitcher while giving you access to James Shields homer-prone arm. Kyle isn’t the best Seager in the majors, but has posted a .191 ISO against RHP since 2015.
Reaching Bryant and Freeman on FanDuel is quite easy at just $3,600. We touched on Freeman in the 1B section (you can play him at 3B on DraftKings as well), but Bryant will draw a matchup with the reverse splits of Kevin Gausman. Since 2015, Gausman has allowed a .363 wOBA and .193 ISO to RHB. While his velocity has been up in his last few starts, so too has the hard contact as he’s allowed 31.9% Hard% (a positive delta of 9.2%) according to our pitcher’s trends tool. Bryant is a reasonable spend on either site, but on FanDuel, the price is hard to ignore.
Manny Machado (BAL), Jake Lamb (ARI), and Josh Donaldson (TOR) are all priced similarly to Bryant and Freeman on FanDuel and would be worthy alternatives as well, albeit lagging behind a bit in terms of raw projection. On DraftKings, that trio is spearheaded by Machado and Donaldson who are just $4,300 and $3,900 respectively, just a small jump up from Seager.
After bragging about depth at other positions, shortstop kicks us in the groin. Yet, we are spared a few options. Jean Segura (SEA) will find himself in the leadoff spot as the Mariners become the road team in a good hitter’s park. Segura’s power numbers are down a bit this year (injury, park shift, etc.) but he is one of the lone options that comes with some potential to hit the ball out of the park, and swipe bases. At $4,800 on DraftKings, he might be out of the plans if you decide to spend on two starting pitchers, but if utilizing the mid-tier, he’ll be a fine fit.
Where Segura is $3,800 on FanDuel, it might be more of a conversation to punt the position with only so many high-$3,000s spends available. That is where the conversation might turn to Freddy Galvis (PHI) or Stephen Drew (WSH). Galvis is not a flashy play by any means, but he has been an acceptable source of power against RHP (.148 ISO since 2015) and is just $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings. Furthermore, he’s found himself in the second spot of the order, making him just a tad bit more valuable than he otherwise would be.
Stephen Drew carries even less upside, but getting exposure to the Nationals for just $2,100 on FanDuel is a fine play at a weak position with little per dollar value. Drew has hit 7th in each of his last two starts since taking over for Trea Turner, and although that is less than ideal, the price tag makes up for it.
If spending, there is some added depth in plays at the upper-middle tier with Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Carlos Correa (HOU), Zack Cozart (CIN), and Chris Owings (ARI), but we view them as better tournament plays.
It’s no surprise that Bryce Harper (WSH) and Mike Trout (LAA) are the top two outfielders in our model for Friday. Harper and the Nats have been frequently mentioned in this positional analysis, and if spending on one, he’s the one you want. Trout is a bit more of an interesting case, returning from a thumb injury with a meager $4,500 price tag on DraftKings. With that tag, he’s our best per dollar play as he’ll draw young right-hander Jacob Faria. It wasn’t a long rehab stint, but Trout performed admirably at High-A, gaining control of the strike zone quickly (albeit against High A arms). It’s difficult to justify paying for him over Harper for anything other than tournaments on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, he’s reasonably in play for cash games alongside Harper at just $4,500.
A strong middle tier emerges in Nelson Cruz (SEA), A.J. Pollock (ARI), David Peralta (ARI), and Ryan Braun (MIL). Cruz is just $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel, posing as a top five outfield value given his matchup with James Shields. Though we love to exploit his prowess against LHP, a .271 ISO against RHP since 2015 ain’t too shabby.
Pollock and Peralta are part of an underpriced Diamondbacks duo that will get a nice park in Atlanta and the potential fun that comes with facing R.A. Dickey. Dickey has twirled four straight great games, so there might be less of an inclination to pick on him in cash games, but the Diamondbacks are an explosive tournament team posting the 8th best wRC+ against RHP.
There is still some cheaper value in the outfield as well, with Kyle Schwarber (CHC) and Odubel Herrera (PHI) being two of the best options. Schwarber has returned to the Cubs and took some healthy hacks in his return, notching a home run with a pair of doubles in a few games before the ASB. We’ll need to wait to see if a mental reset will carry over, but he holds tons of power upside and will be getting a park great for LHB and a matchup with Kevin Gausman. At $3,700 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel, he’s a great value.
Herrera has seen a fluctuating lineup spot this season, floating at 6-7 the last few starts but we know he’ll be in there and he’s just $2,200 on FanDuel and $2,900 on DraftKings – a very cheap way to get exposure to a starter in a good offensive environment.
Ben Gamel (SEA) is just $3,300 on DraftKings and will give you exposure to the Mariners. Jose Bautista (TOR), Corey Dickerson (TB), and Eric Thames (MIL) join him there as acceptable values for either format. On FanDuel, there is less standout value in the middle ranges, but Shin-Soo Choo (TEX), Ben Gamel (SEA), and Brian Goodwin (WSH) fit the mold.
1) Washington Nationals
2) Milwaukee Brewers
3) Seattle Mariners
4) Chicago Cubs
5) Arizona Diamondbacks
This is a slate with a lot of offense available but we imagine the Nationals and Mariners will collect a lot of traffic. The Mariners are unusually cheap against James Shields getting a park upgrade and a strong matchup, while the Nationals depleted lineup due to injury has opened up a few salary relief punt targets. The Brewers remain an interesting contrarian target. They have the highest implied run total on the slate but likely won’t command as much ownership as Seattle and Washington due to the matchup with Nick Pivetta whose DFS results have out-paced his peripherals. Pivetta brings strikeouts but is vulnerable to home runs making the matchup a boom-or-bust one for both sides.
6) Texas Rangers
7) Houston Astros
8) Cincinnati Reds
9) Los Angeles Dodgers
The Astros remain a strong contrarian stack against a good starter in Jose Berrios that is backed up by a horrid bullpen. The Dodgers also fit this mold as Straily’s velocity was down a bit before the break and the fly ball oriented starter is vulnerable to the long ball. Both stacks are expensive which will keep ownership in check. On DraftKings, the Rays are unusually cheap and their offense is always suited for boom-or-bust upside. They’ll likely get lost in the mix on this slate.