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7/17 MLB DFS: Hech of a Relief Play

7/17 MLB DFS: Hech of a Relief Play
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – July 17th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

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Weather: Luckily, a very quiet weather day to start back up. Only game with any sort of delay potential is in CIN with several ballparks featuring good hitting conditions (warm and humid). CHW stands out as one of those ballparks.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.


Top Play:

Buster Posey (SF) – Posey is the clear cut top catcher in our model and is the second highest rated hitter overall. The Giants offense in general, along with Posey, get a significant park shift, moving from San Francisco (worst hitter’s park in the league according to to Arizona (ninth best). Throw in a Giants team total over four, and the environment is good for Posey. How about the individual matchup with the pitcher? Posey has destroyed LHP since 2012, posting a 174 wRC+, topped only by Paul Goldschmidt. Meanwhile, opposing pitcher Robbie Ray has allowed a .335 wOBA and 40.6 hard hit rate to RHBs. On the surface it looks like he’s been good this season (2.16 ERA, 2.86 FIP), but a combination of his xFIP (4.15) and hard minus soft hit rate (24.5) indicate the ERA should rise dramatically moving forward. He’s easy to pay up for on DraftKings where he’s just $4,100, a huge bargain given the matchup.

Value Play:

Salvador Perez (KC) – Perez and the Royals get a massive park shift in their favor, playing in US Cellular Field, one of the friendliest ballparks for right handed power. Temperatures and air density will be favorable for hitting in Chicago tonight as well. We always like to pick on John Danks has he’s been one of the most consistently bad starting pitchers in MLB the last several years, posting ERAs of 4.74 or worse in four consecutive seasons. Not surprisingly, Danks is particularly susceptible to RHBs, allowing a .356 wOBA and 1.50 HR/9 to them since 2012. Perez has always had solid splits against southpaws (.328 wOBA, .183 ISO) and will benefit from Alex Gordon‘s injury as he’ll move into a top six lineup spot. Perez is very cheap across the industry and near minimum priced on FanDuel.

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