Welcome to July 19 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 19 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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July 19 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
12:09 First Base
16:06 Second Base
18:14 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
July 19 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Jacob deGrom (NYM) projects clearly as the top starter on the evening slate. The Cardinals’ are a solid offense against RHP (13th in wRC+) but they’re very right hand heavy and deGrom has held RHBs to a .276 wOBA this season with a 32.7 percent K Rate. This is consistent with his long-term dominance over RHBs (.264 wOBA, .120 ISO allowed, and 28.1 K Rate since 2015). The Cardinals have the lowest implied total (3.5 runs) on the slate and deGrom is nearly the largest favorite (-170). The price tag is hefty on both sites, but deGrom ranks near the top of our value rankings even with it. Lock deGrom into your cash game lineups.
Zack Greinke (ARI) is the next highest projected starter. He draws a difficult matchup with the Reds (12th in wRC+, below average K Rate against RHP) in a strong hitters’ park. Greinke’s a bit more affordable than deGrom but we have a strong gap in the projections. Greinke is a viable pivot from deGrom in GPPs.
The primary pairing for deGrom on DraftKings comes down to a group of four starters that all project similarly relative to price tag. Justin Verlander (DET) has the best combination of matchup (Royals rank 26th in wRC+), ability to pitch deep into games, and price tag ($7,900) but gets difficult conditions in Kansas City (mid-90s, wind blowing out to LF) that has resulted in a 4.6 implied total against. Kenta Maeda (LAD) gets a friendly matchup with the White Sox (25th in wRC+ against RHP) but a park shift and league shift bring a higher than usual implied total against (4.1). Gerrit Cole (PIT) gets the dangerous but strikeout prone Brewers’ offense (25 percent K Rate against RHP) in his spacious home park. The challenge with Cole is an annoying price tag ($8,900) that pushes him slightly down the value rankings. Cole does come with the lowest implied total against (3.9) and if the Brewers run out a RH heavy lineup once again, there may be additional incentive to get up to Cole in cash games. The final piece in this group is Drew Pomeranz (BOS) who gets a Jays’ offense that has historically been very strong against LHP but rank 14th this season in wRC+. Pomeranz has seen his velocity tick back up the last few starts and he comes with the cheapest price tag ($7,200). Pomeranz is best used in tournaments. On FanDuel, Cole is our favorite tournament target with a modest price tag that is actually below Verlander.
Additional tournament targets include: Kevin Gausman (BAL) against a struggling Rangers’ lineup, Jason Hammel (KC) against a RH heavy Tigers’ lineup, and Tim Adleman (CIN) as a pure price punt against the Diamondbacks.
Alex Avila (DET) will be the chalk at the catcher position. He has a good price tag on DK ($3,500), but $2,600 on FD with the platoon edge against Jason Hammel in warm Kansas City (low 90s temps during the game) is too cheap of a price tag.
Russell Martin (TOR) has the tougher matchup against Drew Pomeranz, but he’s in Fenway Park. With the platoon edge in such a great environment for RHBs, Martin is a viable alternative to Avila.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) is more expensive than Avila and Martin, but he’s hitting in a similar environment and represents a strong pivot in tournaments. Welington Castillo (BAL) hits towards the bottom of the Orioles’ lineup, but he’s generated a .212 ISO vs. LHP since 2015 and gets a contact oriented pitcher in Camden Yards. Castillo is viable in tournaments as well.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is our top projected hitter in this slate regardless of position. Goldy’s upside meets Tim Adleman in Cincinnati. It’s an excellent context and he’s viable across all formats, but the high price tag will be a difficult fit in cash games unless you get away from deGrom.
Miguel Cabrera (DET) remains on the cheaper side on DK where he’s $4,000. Miggy is facing Jason Hammel (.181 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015) in hot weather.
On FD, Mitch Moreland (BOS) is a good source of salary relief at $2,800. Aaron Sanchez as a matchup would’ve scared us a bit last season, but Sanchez has looked wretched this season (5.10 xFIP, lower GB rate and SwStr rate). Alex Avila (DET) has 1b eligibility on DK with a nice price tag. It’s viable to take this route and play Martin at C if you needed salary relief.
Joey Votto (CIN) is the splits the difference alternative on both sites. It’s a good hitting environment in Cincinnati and Votto is an excellent hitter (.421 wOBA, .249 ISO vs. RHP since 2015), but we’d rather pick on Zack Greinke in GPPs.
Chris Davis (BAL) is coming off a monster night and he’s still cheap on DK, but tonight he’ll face a southpaw. That won’t scare us away from Crush. The L/L matchup should keep his ownership somewhat in check, and Martin Perez‘s GB rate is down (what he used to do well) while his soft minus hard hit rate is up to 21.5% this season. If you wanted to pick on Perez with a RHB, Trey Mancini (BAL) is viable as well.
Rougned Odor (TEX) will have the platoon edge in Camden Yards, and he’s facing Kevin Gausman (13 ER over his L2 starts, his HR/9 allowed is up to 1.62 on the season). He’s the best value at the position, particularly on DK where the price tag refuses to correct ($3,600).
If you wanted Orioles exposure (highest IRT on the slate – 5.6 runs), Jonathan Schoop (BAL) is the way to do it on FD. Schoop is just $100 more than Odor on that site, and he profiles similarly (will swing and miss but hit for power).
On DK, Logan Forsythe (LAD) joins the cash game conversation. He’ll have the platoon edge (.395 wOBA, .248 ISO vs. LHP since 2015) at just $3,600 in a better hitting environment than his home park. His teammate, Chris Taylor (LAD) (35% HHR this season according to fangraphs), is a bit more expensive but represents a viable pivot in tournaments along with Jonathan Villar (MIL) and Ian Kinsler (DET).
Josh Donaldson (TOR) will have the platoon edge once again in Fenway Park. This time he’ll have a tougher matchup (Pomeranz), but the incredible skills here in this ballpark makes him a viable target in all formats. Donaldson’s price tags are reduced around the industry.
Jake Lamb (ARI) stands out as underpriced on FD, where he’s just $3,400. Tim Adleman has allowed a .345 wOBA and .245 ISO to LHBs since 2015, which makes this a phenomenal matchup for Lamb in Cincinnati. The same can be said for Manny Machado (BAL). Machado’s peripherals are intact, and he’s hitting the ball harder this season (40.3% HHR according to fangraphs). His .251 BABIP is holding him back, but we continue to believe that Machado will get on a tear sooner rather than later. He’s $3,500 on FD.
Justin Turner (LAD) and Adrian Beltre (TEX) are viable secondary pivots in tournaments. Logan Forsythe (LAD) has 3b eligibility on DK, where he’s a source of salary relief if you can’t get up to Donaldson in cash games.
As is usually the case in a condensed slate, the shortstop position is the weakest. Elvis Andrus (TEX) is the top projected scorer and his context is strong. You’re not paying up here on FD ($3,000), but if you needed a cheaper target on DK then Kike Hernandez (LAD) is your route. Kike is unlikely to garner a strong lineup spot (though he has before vs. LHP), but he’s generated a .375 wOBA and .270 ISO vs. LHP since 2015. Chris Owings (CIN) is a viable alternative on FD where he’s $2,900 (as long as he’s hitting fifth – he might move down the lineup with J.D. Martinez in town). Zack Cozart (CIN) is still $3,500 on DK, but the matchup isn’t as favorable (Greinke). We prefer him in tournaments.
Bryce Harper (WSH) and Mike Trout (LAA) are the top projected scorers in the OF. We prefer them in tournaments, but that’s not a detriment (. Harper’s matchup is a great one given Alex Meyer‘s wide platoon splits (.374 wOBA, 1.60 HR/9 allowed to the 188 LHBs he’s faced in his career).
We’re grabbing pieces of our favorite offenses in the OF, and some of them are very affordable. A.J. Pollock (ARI) is priced fully on DK, but he’s just $3,400 on FD and he’ll leadoff for the Diamondbacks (5.2 IRT). Teammate David Peralta (ARI) is the second best value in the OF on FD with a $3,000 price tag. Peralta will have the platoon edge (.374 wOBA, .194 ISO vs. RHP since 2015). Justin Upton (DET) and Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) are the best values in the OF on DK where they’re sub $4,000.
Billy Hamilton (CIN) doesn’t have a good matchup, but the price tag is too low on DK ($3,600) relative to his incredible speed upside. Nomar Mazara (TEX), Lorenzo Cain (KC) ($3,300 on DK, but he’s facing Verlander) and Kike Hernandez (LAD) ($2,100 on FD; OF eligibility on both sites) are viable secondary targets.
1) Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is the priority offense on this slate with warm conditions in Cincinnati against homer prone Tim Adleman. The offense also could get a substantial boost in talent if JD Martinez is available to make his debut. The Diamondbacks are really cheap on FanDuel where you can expect they’ll be chalky but hefty price tags on DraftKings should keep their ownership in check.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) Texas Rangers
4) Toronto Blue Jays
5) Baltimore Orioles
On DraftKings, Texas is a much cheaper stack to attack in cash games. Baltimore will assuredly carry some popularity over from their outburst on Tuesday. If you’re looking to be contrarian on this slate we’d look towards the extreme warm conditions in DET-KC with the wind blowing out to LF. Both offenses are a bit watered down but the conditions are prime for offense.