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July 19 MLB DFS: Take the Car to K-Mart
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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July 19 MLB DFS: Take the Car to K-Mart

00:42 Starting Pitchers
11:05 Catchers
14:54 First Base
17:11 Second Base
21:08 Shortstop
23:44 Third Base
26:47 Outfield
31:04 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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JULY 19 MLB DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Jake Arrieta (CHC)

Tier Two

2) Carlos Martinez (STL)

3) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

4) Vincent Velasquez (PHI)

5) Danny Salazar (CLE)

6) Jameson Taillon (PIT)

Tier Three

7) Aaron Sanchez (TOR)

8) Jose Quintana (CHW)

9) Scott Kazmir (LAD)

Tier Four

10) Junior Guerra (MIL)

11) Dallas Keuchel (HOU)

Jake Arrieta (CHC) is atop our starting pitching rankings for Tuesday evening’s slate. The price is elevated, though not exorbitant as it was early in the season, and with Arrieta’s struggles of late we’re not emphasizing him in cash games. The Mets recalled Michael Conforto and their offense projects really well against RHP with him back in the mix. We’re projecting Arrieta in the 24-25 percent K Rate while last night we were projecting Jose Fernandez around 36-38 percent when lineups were released. This isn’t nearly the same situation as last night with our lone starter in tier one. As a result, we’re focusing more on a starter in the second tier in cash games and that’s Carlos Martinez (STL). The Padres rank 28th in wRC+ and possess the fourth highest K Rate against RHP. This is actually a park downgrade for their offense with the way PETCO has played this season. Martinez has wide platoon splits (career – .336 wOBA/17.7 K Rate against LHBs, .261 wOBA/27 K Rate against RHBs) so the lineup could shift him around in the rankings and change emphasis, but with Melvin Upton back there is a lot of RH strikeout potential in this lineup for Martinez. Additionally, he opened with the lowest implied run total against (3.5 runs – we expect Arrieta will come in around 3.4 but has not been released yet). The only knock on Martinez is a bunch of the other strong starters have favorable umpires and Martinez does not. A softer price tag on Martinez makes him a bit more accessible than other competitors in his tier and our initial lean is to make him a building block in cash games.

The question of who to pair Martinez with on DraftKings is a challenging one. You want to leave yourself enough room to spend with so much offense on this slate and across the board starting pitching is priced very efficiently. Lineups will help guide us and hopefully separate some of the options, but we’re currently looking at Vincent Velasquez (PHI), Jameson Taillon (PIT), or Scott Kazmir (LAD) as your secondary target. Velasquez and Taillon are priced perfectly but have favorable matchups. Velasquez gets that watered down Marlins’ offense against RHP without Justin Bour that Aaron Nola handled well last night and Taillon gets a Brewers’ offense that is RH heavy that leads the league in strikeouts against RHP (26.2 percent). This is important for Taillon because he’s been utterly dominant against RHBs. In the minors he held them to a .224 batting average with a 33:2 K:BB Ratio in 38 innings. At the big league level he’s held the 38 RHBs he’s faced to a .287 wOBA with a 26.3 K Rate, 5.3 BB Rate, and 68 percent GB Rate. In PNC Park, which destroys RH power, Taillon’s matchup is about as good as it gets. We just wish he was a little cheaper. The risk-on crowd can even consider Taillon a salary relief cash game option on FanDuel.

In tournaments, we’re very fond of all the expensive options in tier two that carry expensive price tags. We’ve taken a conservative approach with Noah Syndergaard (NYM) in our baseline adjustments due to health. When healthy, he’s the most skilled pitcher on this slate and even against a good Cubs’ offense we’d be interested, but with no indication of health we’re forced to only consider him in tournaments. Danny Salazar (CLE) has one of the best umpires in baseball behind the plate which helps eliminate one of his few weaknesses and is pitching in a huge park that helps limit the other. The price tag isn’t compelling but the upside is against the Royals. Aaron Sanchez (TOR) and Jose Quintana (CHW) are mid-priced targets that could come with decent upside if the right lineups oppose them. Sanchez helps neutralize park effects with his extreme GB Rate and the Diamondbacks can be very right-handed and strikeout prone. Quintana could get a watered down version of the Mariners offense in a much better park environment than he’s accustomed to. On DraftKings, Reynaldo Lopez (WAS) is min-priced ($4,000) and struck out over 30 percent of batters in AA. The Dodgers are a good offense even if they haven’t performed as such this season and it’s unclear if Lopez is ready or will be allowed to work deep but the price tag earns strong tournament consideration. With all the other starters priced appropriately, the risk-on crowd can even consider him cash game viable on a slate with so much offense.

Catcher Rankings

1) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

2) Buster Posey (SF)

3) Brian McCann (NYY)

4) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

5) Salvador Perez (KC)

6) Russell Martin (TOR)

7) Wilson Ramos (WAS)

Victor Martinez (DET) tops our catcher rankings where eligible on FanDuel. Martinez will face Tommy Milone who has allowed a .341 wOBA and .181 ISO to RHBs since the start of 2015. Martinez has hit for more power from the right side in recent years (.377 wOBA, .163 ISO since 2015) and the Tigers’ lineup as a whole benefits against LHP due to Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton‘s wide platoon splits. Martinez is priced fairly on FanDuel and the position lacks appealing alternatives, making him a strong play. On DraftKings, Buster Posey (SF) is our preferred value target with a big park shift for RHBs and a favorable matchup against Rick Porcello (.341 wOBA, .160 ISO since 2015). If you can’t quite squeeze Posey, Welington Castillo (ARZ) is surprisingly priced as a punt play ($2,300). Aaron Sanchez is about the worst matchup possible for Castillo because of his dominance against RHBs (.243 wOBA, .064 ISO allowed since 2015) but you get a middle of the order hitter in an elite park environment at a punt price. Brian McCann (NYY) is a nice tournament pivot from Posey where priced similarly or more aggressively. The home run upside is always more substantial at home against RHP.

First Base Rankings

1) David Ortiz (BOS)

2) Joey Votto (CIN)

3) Miguel Cabrera (DET)

4) Chris Davis (BAL)

5) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

6) Brandon Belt (SF)

7) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

8) Victor Martinez (DET) – where eligible

9) Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ)

10) Logan Morrison (TB)

First base is exceptionally deep on Tuesday’s slate and that should allow for spread out ownership at the position. The Top Seven first basemen rank inside our Top 20 hitters overall. With so many options, we’d lean on pricing to help differentiate the talent. On FanDuel, pricing is relatively tight with David Ortiz (BOS), Brandon Belt (SF), Joey Votto (CIN), Miguel Cabrera (DET), and Chris Davis (BAL) all priced within $400 of one another. On DraftKings, the pricing is more spread out with Cabrera, Davis, Belt, and Victor Martinez (DET) all under-priced relative to our expectations. In general, we’re leaving this position for last when constructing our lineups because of how many different options we have to choose from that we’re confident in.

Second Base Rankings

1) Ian Kinsler (DET)

2) Jose Altuve (HOU)

3) Brian Dozier (MIN)

4) DJ LeMahieu (COL)

5) Logan Forsythe (TB)

Surprisingly, the two top of the order options in Coors Field don’t sit atop our rankings. Ian Kinsler (DET) gets a soft matchup against Tom Milone and Kinsler has crushed LHP (.380 wOBA, .190 ISO) since the start of 2015. The Tigers have an implied run total of 5.3 runs on the slate and that’s within shouting distance of all the other top offense. Kinsler is very expensive on both sites, so we’re likely dropping down and saving some salary at the position. On both sites, Brian Dozier (MIN) is reasonably priced (cheap on DraftKings) and he has a favorable matchup with Anibal Sanchez‘s reverse splits. Sanchez has allowed a .381 wOBA and .244 ISO to RHBs since the start of 2015. In the 14 starts he’s been given this year, Sanchez has allowed at least five runs in seven of those starts and he’s allowed four or more earned runs in nine consecutive starts. The Twins have an implied run total of 4.7 runs and Dozier’s primary skill set, power (.194 ISO against RHP since 2015), really aligns with Sanchez’s struggles. On DraftKings, Gordon Beckham (ATL) is also cheap ($3,100) and likely hitting at the top of the order with a big park shift and the platoon advantage. He’s also viable if you need some additional salary relief.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Eduardo Nunez (MIN)

2) Trevor Story (COL)

3) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

4) Manny Machado (BAL)

5) Carlos Correa (HOU)

6) Brad Miller (TB)

7) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

8) Corey Seager (LAD)

9) Zack Cozart (CIN)

10) Alemdys Diaz (STL)

Eduardo Nunez (MIN) is another surprise option at the top of our shortstop rankings thanks to Anibal Sanchez‘s extreme reverse splits and a road leadoff spot in a game with a good chance of five plate appearances. While Trevor Story (COL) might be a better play on a per plate appearance basis, Nunez has a solid advantage in expected plate appearances pushing him ahead. Nunez is priced reasonably on both sites but FanDuel’s $3,200 tag is particularly appealing when all the other top shortstops are priced way up. On DraftKings, shortstop pricing on the whole is cheaper and brings alternatives like Manny Machado (BAL) and Carlos Correa (HOU) in play at slightly cheaper price tags. If you don’t feel the need to pay up for Nunez on FanDuel, Trea Turner (LAD) and Marcus Semien (OAK) are viable top of the order punts at a scarce position in terms of values. They’ll both have the platoon advantage albeit against good opposing starters (Kazmir and Keuchel) in below average hitting environments.

Third Base Rankings

1) Nolan Arenado (COL)

2) Eduardo Nunez (MIN) – where eligible

3) Miguel Sano (MIN) – where eligible

4) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

5) Evan Longoria (TB)

6) Jake Lamb (ARZ)

7) Manny Machado (BAL)

Nolan Arenado (COL) is atop our third base rankings and someone we’d like to prioritize on this slate. The price tag is appropriate for his skills but this is a tricky day to get exposure to Coors Field and Arenado’s at a position without a ton of premium depth in terms of values. Arenado is the most direct way to access the Rockies leading team total and he’s at a position without a dominant value. Arenado’s our top overall hitter on this slate. If you’re not paying for Arenado, you’re doing so for extreme salary relief. On FanDuel, the options are a bit more limited with Anthony Rendon (WAS) or Alex Rodriguez (NYY) as possible salary relief targets. On DraftKings, you have the third base eligibility for lots of multi-eligibility players like Nunez, Sano, and Beckham. You also have an extremely cheap $2,700 price tag for Adrian Beltre (TEX) who faces Tim Lincecum (.406 wOBA, .180 ISO since 2015) who has been tagged by RHBs.

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Miguel Sano (MIN)

3) Mookie Betts (BOS)

4) Billy Hamilton (CIN) – if second

5) Bryce Harper (WAS)

6) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

7) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

8) Jay Bruce (CIN)

9) Michael Saunders (TOR)

10) Starling Marte (PIT)

11) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

12) Rajai Davis (CLE)

13) Cameron Maybin (DET)

14) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

15) George Springer (HOU)

Mike Trout (LAA) is our second ranked hitter overall with a favorable matchup at home against Kyle Lohse. He grades out fine, but realistically with so many elite offensive environments in play it’s hard to prioritize him as your spend. Miguel Sano (MIN) has the most reasonable price tag of expensive targets and his power is an ideal fit for Anibal Sanchez‘s struggles with RH power. Billy Hamilton (CIN) remains underpriced and we saw the upside on the base-paths against the Braves inept throwing catchers. He gets another below average RHP in Tyrell Jenkins who has command issues raising the possibility of Hamilton getting on base. If Tommy Pham (STL) remains in the leadoff spot he’d represent a strong value on both sites and there are a host of other viable targets. The outfield position, especially on DraftKings, is stacked with values so make sure to check in on the beta model to help sift through them as lineups come out.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

2) Toronto Blue Jays

3) Tampa Bay Rays

4) Boston Red Sox

Tier Two

5) Detroit Tigers

6) New York Yankees

7) Cincinnati Reds

8) Houston Astros

9) Cleveland Indians

10) Minnesota Twins

On a Coors Field slate with tons of fifth starters taking the mound, we are flush with offense. Coors Field will likely command heavier ownership than the other elite offensive environments but with ARZ, BOS, NYY, and CIN all in play you don’t need to necessarily stack Coors Field in cash games. In fact, pricing may often lead you in alternative directions. With so many offensive options, as long as you’re stacking outside of Coors Field you should be putting yourself in a decent position for differentiation.

Contrarian Stacks:

Minnesota Twins – This is a similar situation to Sunday when the Twins faced a reverse splits RHP prone to allowing RH power. We had to bail on it when Sano was out of the lineup, but this sets up as a nice stack to target with low ownership. All of the other elite offenses will come first for most people but Sanchez has given up 17 HRs in just over 80 innings of work this season. Sano and Dozier come with a lot of built in power upside and then guys like Max Kepler and Eduardo Nunez can rack up points in multiple ways.

Baltimore Orioles – The park shift is actually a negative for the Orioles RH heavy offense but that along with Eovaldi’s historical success against RHBs (.308 wOBA, .134 ISO since 2015) will probably keep ownership low. Eovaldi was battered in his last few starts before getting demoted. He allowed hard hit rates of 29.4, 38.9, 30, 41.2, 40.9, and 44.4 in his six starts prior to the demotion. The 44.4 percent outing was against the Orioles who put up five on him that evening. More importantly along with the batted ball rates, Eovaldi’s swinging strike rates collapsed in those six starts: 4.9, 10.9, 7.3, 6.3, 7.1, and 8.9. The underbelly of the Yankees’ bullpen is very soft so if the Orioles can get to Eovaldi early it has an exponential effect. Add in Betances, Miller, and Chapman have all thrown on consecutive days and the Yankees typically don’t like to extend guys three days and you could see a severely depleted pen.

MLB Daily Analysis

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