Welcome to July 22 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 22 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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July 22 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
10:45 First Base
13:37 Second Base
15:50 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
July 22 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Chris Archer (TB) tops the projections by a substantial margin for the evening slate. Archer gets a slumping Rangers’ offense that is getting a severe park downgrade. The Rangers have been a below average offense against RHP (17th in wRC+) with an above average K Rate (23.8 percent against RHP). Archer outpaces Rich Hill (LAD) in our projections despite Archer’s implied run total against (3.6) outpacing Hill’s (3.2) implied run total against. The primary reason is due to a higher projected number of batters faced for Archer who has a more consistent history of working deep into games. The gap closes for Hill if you view his recent performance (31 IP, 6 ER, 19 H, 6 BB, 44 K) as Hill’s new baseline with his season turned around. He’s worked deeper into those five starts and his K Rate has jumped dramatically. Where the two are priced similarly, we prefer Archer as a cash game target but on FanDuel with a wider pricing gap you can make the case for Hill as a way to generate more salary relief to dedicate to offense.
The next tier of starters includes Masahiro Tanaka (NYY), David Price (BOS), Danny Salazar (CLE), and Sean Manaea (OAK). Salazar is the cheapest option of this group across the two sites and is returning to the rotation after a trip to the bullpen then a few weeks in the minors to build his pitch count back up. The last two rehab starts for Salazar were impressive as he combined for 11 shutout innings while allowing five hits, five walks, and striking out 16. Vegas has instilled some confidence in Salazar with a 3.9 implied total against. The price tag on Salazar is also compelling with both sites pricing him below $8,000. Our lean is to take a more cautious approach with Salazar and attack ownership in tournaments but find a different direction in cash games. On DraftKings, Manaea is cheaper than Salazar and gets a league shift in his favor against a Mets’ offense that has been above average against LHP (ninth in wRC+). The matchup isn’t great and neither is the implied total against but the K potential for $6,600 on DraftKings makes him a fine target to pair with Archer. Tanaka and Price get big park shifts but face offenses that don’t strikeout a ton and their price tags require above average strikeout production.
In tournaments, Tanner Roark (WAS) would have some very mild interest if the Diamondbacks run out a really RH heavy lineup. Roark has historically dominated RHBs but has struggled mightily of late despite improving velocity. At $6,100 on DraftKings, he’ll come with no ownership after the Diamondbacks pelting Scherzer. Perhaps, the stronger target is Zack Wheeler (NYM) who gets the strikeout prone A’s offense in a better park for strikeouts and without the benefit of the DH. Wheeler is also cheap at $6,300 and gets a better pitching environment than Roark. Ariel Miranda (SEA) is another viable cheap starter for DraftKings with a $5,500 tag and the Yankees offense struggling since returning from the break.
Alex Avila (DET) gets the chalk conversation started in this slate. Avila is our second projected scorer at the catcher position, and he’s affordable on both sites. On FD, the $2,400 price tag is silly given his context – platoon edge against Kyle Gibson, who’s allowed a .389 wOBA and .188 ISO to the L250 LHBs he’s faced.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) is our top projected scorer at the catcher position, and he’s affordable on FD ($3,200). He’ll have the platoon edge but he’s on the road in Seattle. We like him in tournaments.
J.T. Realmuto (MIA) is a viable alternative to Avila in cash games on DK where he’s $3,200. He won’t have the platoon edge and he hits in a worse lineup spot, but a matchup against Robert Stephenson (25.6% hard minus soft hit rate allowed out of the pen this season) in Cincinnati is helping his projection.
In tournaments, we remain interested in Salvador Perez (KC). It’s going to be very hot in Kansas City once again, but this time there’s 100 degree temps projected to begin the game. We’re also interested in Yasmani Grandal (LAD) in tournaments given the matchup vs. Julio Teheran (wide platoon splits).
It’s Eric Thames (MIL) night once again. Thames projects as a Top Five hitter on a loaded offensive slate, and he’s just $3,900 on DK and $3,500 on FD. He’ll face Jeremy Hellickson (13% K rate, 35% GB rate this season) in Philadelphia (mid 80s temps).
Justin Bour (MIA) is a strong alternative on FD. He’ll have the platoon edge in Cincinnati, and he’s a middle of the order bat (with power upside) for a Marlins’ offense that has a gaudy IRT (5.5 runs). Bour is $200 cheaper than Thames on FD.
There are plenty of targets to pursue in tournaments with better contact data than Thames. Eric Hosmer (KC) in hot Kauffman Stadium vs. Mike Pelfrey qualifies as a good option. Tommy Joseph (PHI) is free on DK ($3,100) and with the platoon edge he’ll hit cleanup. Cody Bellinger (LAD) is facing Julio Teheran. Logan Morrison (TB) is in a bad hitting environment but the matchup is tasty (Cashner). Chris Davis (BAL) is at home and he’ll have the platoon edge against a pitcher that’s making his first start of the season (Collin McHugh). Matt Holliday (NYY) is another cheap bat on DK ($3,500) but he’s been struggling as of late. Josh Bell (PIT) is $3,900 on DK once again, which puts him in the cash game conversation.
Jose Altuve (HOU) has been on a tear (40.6% HHR post ASB), but he’s simply too expensive to consider in cash games at a position with decent opportunity cost.
Jonathan Villar (MIL) is right behind Altuve in projection but with friendlier price tags. Villar is just $3,700 on DK and $2,900 on FD. Jeremy Hellickson and the hot environment in Philadelphia are giving the Brewers hefty projections, and Villar is the leadoff hitter for this offense.
Dee Gordon (MIA) and Josh Harrison (PIT) are fine alternatives in cash games. Harrison is still sub $4,000 and he’s hitting second in Coors Field. Gordon will have a strong chance at five PAs given his context (MIA has an IRT of 5.5 runs in Cincinnati).
Nolan Arenado (COL) is the top projected scorer at a deep third base position. Arenado has been on a roll lately, scorching the ball (37.9% HHR over the L15) and he’s in Coors once again tonight. He’s viable in cash games if you’re willing to take a different route at SP.
We’d rather save our resources at third base. On DK, Josh Harrison (PIT) and Mike Moustakas (KC) are both sub $4,000 and they’re contexts are phenomenal (Harrison is in Coors and gets to hit in a great lineup spot, Moustakas is facing Shields in one of the better hitting environments in this slate). On FD, Manny Machado (BAL) remains underpriced ($3,600) and as we mentioned earlier, we’d rather attack Fiers with RHBs since he’s a reverse splits pitcher. The best alternative to Machado on FD is likely Moustakas at $3,200 or Josh Donaldson (TOR) at $3,400.
Miguel Sano (MIN) and Ryon Healy (OAK) are other targets to consider in tournaments. Sano in particular is very intriguing given the matchup vs. Anibal Sanchez (.374 wOBA, .240 ISO surrendered to RHBs since 2015) and his own power stroke.
It’s another loaded slate at premium positions, which has us going the cheap route at shortstop. Marcus Semien (OAK) won’t have the platoon edge, but we still have him pegged for a .168 ISO baseline vs. RHP. As long as he’s hitting second, we’ll fire away at his cheap price tags ($3,000 on DK and punt price on FD). If Wilmer Difo (WSH) hits second he’s cheap enough to use on FD ($2,500). Tim Anderson (CWS) is sub $3,000 on DK and he’ll have the platoon edge in a phenomenal hitting environment.
In tournaments, you can pay more appropriate price tags on shortstops with upside like Corey Seager (LAD), Zack Cozart (CIN), Trevor Story (COL) and Marwin Gonzalez (HOU). If you have the funds to spend up for Cozart on FD, that seems like a viable cash game route given the $3,300 price tag but it’s not a route we’re forcing.
The OF has more depth than last night, which is scary. The Coors Field OFs, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Andrew McCutchen (PIT) and Starling Marte (PIT) still rate great. Blackmon’s price tag looks like an impossible reach on DK ($5,700), but there are so many underpriced hitters that it makes it easier to roster him. CarGo’s price tag refuses to get above $3,600 on DK. McCutchen and Marte are somehow sub $5,000 once again in Coors. Load up with these targets on DK.
On FD, you can still have access to Josh Reddick (HOU) for $2,900, Marte’s price tag is reachable ($3,600) without Scherzer on the slate and Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is our second best point per dollar target at $4,300. It’s an appropriate price tag if he was at home, but he’s in Cincinnati facing a weak pitching staff. We love him in all formats (post ASB HHR is sitting at 50%). Teammate Christian Yelich (MIA) projects as a Top Five OF value on that site and Top Three on DK. If you need a cheaper target to fill your third OF spot, Matt Holliday (NYY) is underpriced ($2,700) vs. a LHP. Mallex Smith (TB) is $3,100 on DK in a matchup vs. Andrew Cashner, but it’s unlikely that you’ll need this sort of salary relief in cash games.
Eric Thames (MIL) has OF eligibility on DK. You’re playing him in cash games at 1b or in the OF.
Bryce Harper (WSH) could get lost in the shuffle given the incredible depth in the OF, but he’s in a great hitting environment as well (Chase Field) and he’ll have the platoon edge against Matt Koch. Koch is making a spot start, and he’s been underwhelming in the minors (in four starts at AAA, he posted a sub 12% K rate with a 8.67 ERA/6.79 xFIP). Harper is an excellent tournament target. The same can be said for Aaron Judge (NYY) with the platoon edge.
1) Colorado Rockies
2) Miami Marlins
3) Houston Astros
4) Milwaukee Brewers
5) Pittsburgh Pirates
This slate is filled with bad starting pitching which means plenty of viable offenses to attack. The Rockies top our list which isn’t a big surprise. They have a slate leading 6.4 implied total and face an opposing starter in Chad Kuhl that doesn’t work deep into games. They’re trumped in our minds by stronger point per dollar stacks in this tier. The Marlins, Brewers, and Pirates (DraftKings only) are the three team stacks that come relatively cheap. The Marlins were low owned in a similar spot last night and all the depth on the slate offensively should keep ownership in check for both the Marlins and Brewers. We were surprised the Pirates ownership was held in check with soft pricing on DraftKings but expect it will be rebound after coming through last night. The Astros are like the Rockies in that they’re expensive but awfully darn good and their bottom of the order stacks remain a cheaper way to exploit the great matchup with Chris Tillman.
6) Washington Nationals
The Nationals are the lone second tier stack. They get a big park upgrade and likely face a call-up in Matt Koch. The watered down lineups they’ve been running out are the only thing that hold them back a bit in projections. They remain a fine target in GPPs.
The KC-CHW game remains a fine contrarian spot. The Royals won’t be contrarian so we’re more interested in the White Sox against Jason Vargas who has seen steep velocity declines of late and it’s resulted in big jumps in ISO and wOBA allowed over his last five starts. The low implied total will keep ownership way down and the White Sox have guys who can hit LHP for power. Throw in warm temperatures once again in Kansas City and this is a nice contrarian spot.