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July 24 MLB DFS: Call The Bellman
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Welcome to July 24 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 24 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 24 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:55 Starting Pitcher
10:53 Catcher
13:03 First Base
15:07 Second Base
17:45 Third Base
20:17 Shortstop
22:45 Outfield
27:45 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 24 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Jacob deGrom (NYM) is once again alone at the top in the starting pitcher projections. He’s expensive ($13,400 on DK, $11,000 on FD) but draws an elite matchup in San Diego against the Padres offense that ranks 26th in wRC+ with a 25.6 K Rate against RHP. There is a massive gap in projection between deGrom and the other ace, Zack Greinke (ARI), on this slate and we recommend focusing on deGrom in cash games. In tournaments, the hefty price tag is certainly fade-able on a slate that ownership figures to condense.

Greinke is the best high-end pivot in our projections, but Justin Verlander (DET) and Brad Peacock (HOU) are also viable pivots where the price tags are more reasonable. Peacock is wildly overpriced on DK but checks in at a more reasonable level on FD. Vegas is still hesitant to buy into Peacock’s 2017 season (4.3 implied run total for the Phillies) but the matchup and K Rate open up the potential for an unusually efficient performance from Peacock. On FanDuel, he’s a strong tournament pivot (doesn’t get penalized for WHIP, big W potential). Verlander faces the Royals for the fourth time this season. In the previous three outings he’s combined for 21 innings, five earned runs, 24 base-runners allowed, and 19 strikeouts. A Verlander-deGrom pairing on DraftKings is a bit expensive so we prefer Verlander as a GPP target on teams that are fading deGrom.

Given deGrom’s expensive tag, we need salary relief from our second starter to open up enough hitting on DraftKings. Fortunately, we have a few options at our disposal. Francisco Liriano (TOR), Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD), and Mike Leake (STL) are the viable cheap pivots. Liriano comes with volatility but an above average K Rate.The Athletics rank 28th in wRC+ against LHP with the league’s second highest K Rate (26 percent). Most of his struggles are via command as opposed to power, so the park shift isn’t as great for him but he’s under $6,000. Mike Leake gets a Rockies’ offense that ranks dead last in wRC+ against RHP. The K Rate upside isn’t great but Leake is also under $6,000 and the Rockies have an implied run total of just 4.1. Ryu gets the Twins who lose the DH and get a big park downgrade. The biggest concern with Ryu is the Dodgers often don’t let him work deep into games. The Kershaw injury requiring eight innings of bullpen work yesterday could loosen the leash further which makes Ryu a viable second starter despite a more substantial price tag at $7,700.  Ryu is also our favorite GPP pivot from deGrom on FanDuel with a nice $7,100 price tag that allows you to load up on hitting.

In tournaments, we’re looking for cheap strikeouts to provide upside. We mentioned Verlander and Peacock as mid-tier pivots where priced as such but there are cheaper options. Francisco Liriano is one of our favored targets but the strong pitching environment in Tampa Bay is another place to attack with Kevin Gausman (BAL) and Blake Snell (TB). Gausman started throwing his splitter more than 20 percent of the time on June 16th and while he’s still posted a 5.40 ERA and .483 slugging against in that span, he’s also struck out 49 batters in 36 ⅔ innings.

Catcher

A slow start to the second half aside, Alex Avila (DET) is our top ranked catching value on Monday’s slate. Avila and the Tigers hold an implied run total of 5.1 runs and draw a home matchup with right-hander Jason Hammel. Some second half regression was undoubtedly expected for Avila, but he’s had a fantastic season (.214 ISO) and should come with one of the best overall lineup spots for a catcher. At just $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel he is a great source of cap relief that will be necessary in order to fit Jacob deGrom.

Veterans Russell Martin (TOR) and Brian McCann (HOU) follow right behind Avila as far as value goes. Martin has continued to hit second in his starts and this time he’ll draw journeyman right-hander Chris Smith. Smith is nothing to be alarmed of, having made a few starts this season and holding ZiPS projection of a 4.73 ERA rest of season. The Blue Jays too hold an implied run total above five runs, and Martin will come at the same tag as Avila on DraftKings and is $100 more expensive on FanDuel. It’s McCann who will cost the most of the group, but he likely comes with the most upside as well. The matchup with Vince Velasquez is the most difficult, but Velazquez has struggled allowing the long ball this season (1.93 HR/9). McCann’s lineup spot can fluctuate, but hopefully we’ll find him in the top six.

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) is a piece of the best offense on the slate, but he’ll cost you just a bit more and likely come with the worst lineup spot of this group (though he did hit fourth in his last start).

First Base

The conversation at first base will be site specific on Monday. On DraftKings, you’ll likely be looking to cut costs – focusing on Ryon Healy (OAK), Miguel Cabrera (DET), or Matt Carpenter (STL). Healy has missed the last few days after taking a bad hop to the face, but he is ready to play and should be in the lineup against LHP Francisco Liriano. In his last start against a LHP, he slid into the third spot in the order and if there against Francisco Liriano, he’ll be an excellent play at just $2,900. It’s a small sample, but Healy has been destructive against LHP in his brief career, posting a .409 wOBA and .267 ISO. Miggy is showing some signs of age, but at just $3,400, he’s too cheap in a matchup with Jason Hammel who has been susceptible to same-handed power. Carpenter is the most expensive of the bunch, but is a leadoff hitter who will hold the platoon edge on Antonio Senzatela.

On FanDuel, or if you can find the funds on DraftKings, it is Cody Bellinger (LAD) who is the most enticing first base spend on the slate. Bellinger is part of a Dodgers team that holds the second highest implied run total in their home matchup with Bartolo Colon. Colon has posted an ERA over eight this season and poses little threat to holding down Bellinger and a monstrous .343 ISO. Bellinger is actually outpaced in raw projection by Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) who will face R.A. Dickey. Dickey has turned things around of late, but Goldy’s rare power and speed upside makes him a compelling tournament spend.

For even cheaper on FanDuel, Carlos Santana (CLE) got a start in the leadoff spot on Sunday and will get the power friendly arm of Tim Adleman. Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) will cost you a bit more, but comes with the same friendly matchup.

Second Base

With few options at second base, it’s Brian Dozier (MIN) who is the top value on DraftKings at $3,900. Dozier and the Twins will get a negative park and league shift traveling to Dodger Stadium, but he’ll get the platoon edge on left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu is just now returning from the DL and has been a health case his entire career, but has struggled allowing the long ball this season. Plus, Dozier has posted a .361 wOBA and .241 ISO against LHP since 2015.

It’s less likely that you’ll pay for Dozier on FanDuel, and if paying up our model prefers the options of Jose Altuve (HOU), Matt Carpenter (STL), or Jose Ramirez (CLE). However, it’s unlikely that you’ll end up paying up at all on FanDuel, where you only have a few spends to make with the likelihood of rostering Jacob deGrom.

That leaves some cheaper options in Logan Forsythe (LAD) or Chase Utley (LAD), either of whom may start for the Dodgers. Utley lead off in his last start against a RHP, and Forsythe is coming off three straight starts in fifth spot of the order. Either one could be important pieces to add exposure to the Dodgers while creating some cap relief in order to fit Jacob deGrom. Utley is just $2,500 while Forsythe will cost you a bit more at $3,000. On DraftKings, only Forsythe is a true value at $3,300 as Utley for whatever reason is priced all the way up beyond Dozier at $4,000.

Third Base

We touched on Ryon Healy (OAK) at first base, but he holds 3B eligibility on both sites and is among the top values should he return to the lineup against Francisco Liriano. On the other side of that game, Josh Donaldson (TOR) is far too cheap in his matchup against Chris Smith. Donaldson hasn’t been quite the threat we’ve gotten used to in previous years and he’s struggled mightily with the strikeout. Luckily, Chris Smith is not a strikeout arm (career 20% K%) and Donaldson is priced down to $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings, the top per dollar value on both sites.

Adrian Beltre (TEX) is one of only a few Texas bats that pops in our model despite an implied run total of six runs in their matchup with Adam Conley. It’s expected to be in the low 90s in Texas on Monday and Beltre will draw the platoon edge on the fly ball oriented Conley, who has posted a 5.64 xFIP while walking 4.67 hitters per nine. On FanDuel he’ll cost you $300 more than Donaldson, and each $100 counts a bit more there, but on DraftKings he’ll come at a $200 discount. There aren’t a ton of ways to feel comfortable getting exposure to the Rangers, but doing so with Beltre is one way.

Justin Turner (LAD) is priced up above this group of players, but will work perfectly for Dodgers stacks. Turner is a force against same handed pitching and will get that luxury against Bartolo Colon.

A host of others: Freddie Freeman (ATL), Manny Machado (BAL), and Miguel Sano (MIN) all have some merits for tournaments.

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD) is the ideal spend at the shortstop position, and depending on your spends elsewhere he’s a viable option in cash games. Seager has been a monster against RHP in his young career, posting a .396 wOBA and .221 ISO. Furthermore, he’ll get you much needed exposure to the Dodgers offense.

If not spending on Seager, Marcus Semien (OAK) again provides plenty of value for the Athletics. He should slide into the second spot of the order and is one of the lone shortstops with upside in the power department. He’s coming off a home run yesterday and has posted a .209 ISO against LHP since 2015. His $3,500 tag on DraftKings and $2,500 tag on FanDuel are near the top of our per dollar ranks.

Elvis Andrus (TEX) is another viable way to get exposure to the Rangers offense, hitting second with the platoon edge on Adam Conley. The recent batted ball data has not been good for Andrus, but we’ve touched on the small positives in upside he’s shown this season. It’s unlikely that you’ll spend on the $4,500 needed to roster him on DraftKings, but he’s only $3,000 on FanDuel – a fair middling price.

Jorge Polanco (MIN) is just $2,300 on DraftKings. He hit 8th yesterday against a LHP, but should he move up in the lineup (and even if not so and you need the cap relief) he’d be an fine cap saving alternative at a shallow position.

Outfield

It’ll be necessary to find value in the outfield on Monday, utilizing the middle tier to help you spend on some other premium positions and starting pitcher. Jose Bautista (TOR), Bradley Zimmer (CLE), and Dexter Fowler (STL) are among the most valuable per dollar plays on both sites.

For Bautista and Zimmer, both should find themselves at the top of the order for teams with implied run totals above five runs. They are both just $3,700 on DraftKings, but there is a much larger discrepancy in their pricing on FanDuel where Bautista is $3,200 and Zimmer is just $2,500. Neither has been overly productive in the last few weeks as far as batted ball data goes, so potential line movements could help impact the tiebreaking decision.

Fowler is no longer hitting leadoff for the Cardinals, but instead has been inserted into the third spot in the lineup. He holds a similar price tag on DraftKings, and is just $2,500 like Zimmer on FanDuel. The park nor matchup is overly enticing, as Antonio Senzatela has kept the ball on the ground and not been horrible overall (4.41 xFIP) but it’s the price tag and lineup spot that are most compelling. Plus, Fowler will hit from the left side in this game, bringing a bit more power upside to his game (.182 ISO against RHP since 2015).

Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) remains just $3,600 on DraftKings ($3,300 on FanDuel) and will grab the platoon edge against Clayton Richard. He’s posted a .248 ISO against LHP since 2015 and though the Mets are getting a negative park shift moving to Petco Park, his price tag is too good to potentially pass him up.

Josh Reddick (HOU) is a nice way to get exposure to the Astros offense, but he’s a bit more valuable on FanDuel where he is just $3,000. The Astros are yet another offense with an implied run total over five runs and get the matchup with Vince Velazquez that is quite boom or bust.

Lorenzo Cain (KC) sat on Sunday, but is too cheap for his lineup spot. Starling Marte (PIT) comes with good speed upside and is $3,200 on FanDuel in a matchup with Matt Cain. The park is as bad as it can get, but Cain is no longer someone to worry about picking on (5.25 xFIP). Delino DeShields (TEX) lead off in his last start against a LHP. Should he find himself there again he’d be a great way to get access to the Texas order that comes with speed upside as well. He’s just $2,500 on FanDuel, but is a bit less valuable at $4,100 on DraftKings.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is a tough spend on the slate, but is a monster against LHP and needs to be considered for tournaments. Cody Bellinger (LAD) holds OF eligibility on DraftKings if you wish to still take advantage of some of the cheaper values that first base affords.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Los Angeles Dodgers

2) Houston Astros

The Dodgers and Astros are the two best offenses on this slate. The Dodgers get a soft matchup with Bartolo and all their lefty power matches up really well with Colon’s struggles. Throw in a bad Twins’ bullpen behind him and they’re our preferred stack to spend on. The Astros lineup is so deep it’s always in play especially on the road against a starter with good stuff but one who struggles to work deep and has a bad pen behind him. We expect ownership to condense on the MIA-TEX game which should keep ownership on both expensive offenses relatively in check. The Dodgers should be chalkier than the Astros and the Astros are guaranteed a ninth inning as a road team.

Tier Two

 

3) Texas Rangers

4) Cleveland Indians

5) Arizona Diamondbacks

We expect the MIA-TEX game to carry hefty ownership but one way to be contrarian within it is the Rangers LHBs. Conley’s been a neutral splits guy due to his reliance on his change-up. Cleveland may go overlooked on this slate which is intriguing against homer prone Tim Adleman.

Tier Three

 

6) Toronto Blue Jays

7) Miami Marlins

8) Oakland Athletics

9) St. Louis Cardinals

10) Detroit Tigers

The Marlins offense is set up well to attack LHP and Martin Perez has become a bit more vulnerable to power than in years past with a sinking GB Rate. We’re conflicted as we love the offense more than our projections but understand they’ll likely carry heavy ownership. Oakland remains one of the cheapest stacks on DraftKings which is an interesting way to perhaps pair another high octane starter with deGrom in tournaments.