Daily Fantasy Rundown – July 24 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: COL is the game with the most worries tonight (ppd risk looks low). Smaller worry for a delay in BOS, other locales should be good.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Brayan Pena (CIN) – There are a handful of mid-tier to cheap catcher options on the day, but the one I’ll be targeting most in cash games is Pena. He generally hits fifth, and is playing in just about the only park that would represent a positive park shift for him (Coors Field). Pena is inexpensive across the industry and the easiest way to get Coors Field exposure given his price and position. While Pena has a pathetic -2.9 hard minus soft hit rate leading to a .036 ISO, he’ll at least take a walk (8.6 BB percentage) and make contact (7.5 K percentage). That’s enough for him to be along for the ride today as the Reds offense has the highest team total. As the road team in Coors Field, no team projects to get more at bats, and opposing pitcher Eddie Butler is a train wreck. He had a 4.80 ERA in 11 starts while walking more than he struck out. So naturally he got sent down to AAA….where he proceeded to post a 6.27 ERA before getting called back up for this start.
Victor Martinez (DET) – This is FanDuel specific as Martinez is not catcher eligible on most sites, but his price is really tempting there. Rick Porcello has turned to his four seam fastball more than in any other season since his rookie year. The result has been more strikeouts, but it’s come at a cost. His GB rate has dropped to a career low 44.5 percent, which in conjunction with a career high 31.6 hard hit rate, has led to him allowing way more power numbers than ever before and ultimately a 5.79 ERA. The quality of contact Martinez is making has dropped off exponentially, which has resulted in lower overall production. However, he’s still making plenty of contact and July represents his highest hard minus soft hit rate of any month. It’s a good time to buy.
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – Lucroy doesn’t pop as a good play if you are only using in-season splits (35 wRC+ against LHP, .114 ISO). While that may be a little concerning, you have to consider two things: 1-it’s just 49 PAs. 2-The underlying peripherals don’t suggest a complete breakdown of skills. In fact Lucroy’s 38.5 hard hit rate against LHP is higher than his career mark, and the 14.3 K percentage is just a tad higher than his career mark. The real culprit has been a .184 BABIP and 7.7 HR/FB rate, both of which should normalize moving forward. As a result, I’m looking at Lucroy’s career numbers (132 wRC+, .199 ISO) and see a good value given his second spot in the order and a strong offensive park (Chase Field).
Derek Norris (SD) – Sure, a R/R matchup in Petco Park for an offense that is horrendous isn’t exactly in Chapter 1 of the DFS playbook. However, Norris is dirt cheap across the industry and opposing pitcher Dan Haren is in serious decline (4.47 xFIP, 1.31 HR/9). It also helps that Haren has been a pretty even splits guy over his career. I’d try to avoid using Norris due to the low run scoring environment, but ultimately there are a bunch of “okay” catcher values and no great ones. With opportunity cost not extremely high, you may be forced into a guy like Norris at a position or two if it gets you the expensive bats/pitchers you want elsewhere.
Additional catcher notes: I generally hate to give so many catcher options but it’s a bit of a muddled position today, with a lot of potential cheap options, which is perfect given a game in Coors and some high starting pitchers in play. Aside from the written up options, Brian McCann (NYY) is excellent for tournaments. It’s a big negative park shift, but as we’ve mentioned several times this year, a Phil Hughes that doesn’t miss bats provides a ton of upside for opposing batters. One of the better secondary value play options is Yan Gomes (CLE). Jose Quintana doesn’t represent a plus matchup, but Gomes has the platoon edge and nice power upside for his price point. Based on his peripherals, we expect the power to be on the rise moving forward. For FanDuel, both John Jaso (TB) and Stephen Vogt (OAK) are cash game viable, although we prefer the batters in higher run scoring environments. Matt Wieters (BAL) price has dropped so ridiculously low on DraftKings that he can be used despite a very difficult matchup.
Joey Votto (CIN) – Votto isn’t a must play due to a high price tag, and the opportunity cost (specifically on DraftKings) is rather high. However, if you’re going to pay up for a first baseman in cash games he’s your guy. Only Mike Trout (by a hair) ranks higher in our model this evening, and when factoring in the guaranteed ninth inning on the road (potential for another plate appearance) I’d side with Votto in a vacuum. Eddie Butler has faced 162 LHBs over his career and has allowed a .439 wOBA, 1.39 HR/9 and a 29.3 LD rate. He’s walked 13 percent of them while striking out just 9.3 percent. LHBs own Eddie Butler. On top of that it’s Coors Field and a horrendous Rockies bullpen.
Next in line: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (elite talent and at home, but if you’re paying up in cash games it has to be for Votto)
Albert Pujols (LAA) – Pujols is having an absolutely absurd season at the plate. He continues to put the ball in play (10.1 K rate is laughably good for a power hitting CI), but his power resembles the Pujols of his prime. His .285 ISO exceeds his career average, and while we don’t expect it to last (due to age), it’s not exactly a fluke either. He’s once again generating plenty of loft, with a GB rate below his career mark and a plus hard hit rate. Enter Colby Lewis who is about as homer prone as they come. Since 2012, Lewis has allowed 1.36 HR/9 to same handed batters, which is what happens when you’re an extreme fly ball pitcher with a below average K rate allowing a ton of hard hit contact (33.5 hard hit rate).
David Ortiz (BOS) – It’s no secret by now that Ortiz is one of our favorite DFS plays, and he seems perpetually underpriced across the industry, particularly on DraftKings ($3,700). Even if you fill in 40 percent of your budget on DraftKings with pitching, that still leaves you with an average cost per hitter left of just over $3,700. Now things aren’t perfect with Ortiz (lower hard hit rate, higher GB rate), but he’s still put together a 144 wRC+ and .259 ISO against RHP, both marks are better than last season’s. Perhaps most importantly today he faces a struggling Justin Verlander. It’s possible Verlander eventually shakes off the rust, but we’ll keep picking on him until that actually happens. In six starts he has a 6.62 ERA, and it’s tough to blame that on luck given a 6.06 FIP, 5.02 xFIP and 16.4 hard minus soft hit rate. He’s given up at least six earned runs in half of the starts, including seven in two of his past three and multiple homers in half of his games. This is what happens when you have the lowest K rate of your career, lowest GB rate and lowest soft hit rate.
Ben Paulsen (COL) – Paulsen doesn’t rank great in our model and is a number six hitter for a home team, which usually means tournament play only. However, with this game having such a high total (11) in Coors, Paulsen can still be used in cash games. He’s one of the cheapest ways to get access to this game. Like with the Reds, it’s not as if the Rockies are good plays solely due to park. Anthony DeSclafani is a touch below average in both K and BB rates while being GB neutral. His hard hit rate allowed of 30.9 is higher than the league average. Particularly against LHBs, DeSclafani has allowed a .349 wOBA and 1.24 HR/9. It also helps Paulsen that Aroldis Chapman is currently the only lefty out of the pen for the Reds.
Additional first base notes: Some tournaments options at first base are Mike Napoli (BOS) and Chris Carter (HOU), both of whom have very high HR scores in our model relative to their prices. Yonder Alonso (SD) is a punt option for tournaments.
Brandon Phillips (CIN) – I hate to be boring here, but this is completely about Coors Field. Phillips has been leading off for the Reds, who have a healthy team total around 5.5 runs this evening. With no clear cut value in other games, it makes sense to target Coors Field here with a mid-priced options.
Johnny Giavotella (LAA) – One option, especially if you think Phillips is overpriced on the basis of park, is to simply punt the second base position. I’m hoping a bare minimum cap relief option pops up when lineups are released, but if that doesn’t happen Giavotella is close enough. He’ll lead off for an Angels team that has the fourth highest team total on the day. We aren’t always in line with Vegas, but today the four teams we’re targeting are the four teams with the highest totals (Rockies, Reds, Red Sox, Angels) as there are a lot of good pitchers or mediocre pitchers in decent environments pitching elsewhere.
Additional second base notes: On some sites, most notably DraftKings, Phillips’ price really rises due to playing in Coors Field. If that’s the case and you don’t want to punt with Giavotella, a couple of oldies are in decent spots: Robinson Cano (SEA) and Dustin Pedroia (BOS). I don’t think we can be blinded to Cano’s awful overall season peripherals, but he has been elevating the ball a lot more leading to the power coming back a bit. He gets a solid matchup against Drew Hutchison who struggles against LHBs but overall should be much better over the season’s second half. Pedroia is also pretty meh. His ISO is driven by an unsustainable HR/FB rate, especially given a low hard hit rate. Playing him is less about Pedroia and more about picking on Justin Verlander. The Red Sox come in with the third highest team total on the day. DJ LeMahieu (COL) is always an option hitting second at home, but with the price rising we have to be cognizant that he’s simply not that good, despite all the great contextual factors in his favor. A final cheap cash option is Chris Owings (ARI) if he hits second. Two guys I view mainly as tournament options are Howie Kendrick (LAD) and Jose Altuve (HOU).
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – Tulo is an excellent cash game option. While he frustrated the heck out of us the other night, keep in mind he has a .385 wOBA and .177 ISO on the season – great marks for a shortstop, especially when you consider his brutal first couple of months. What makes Tulowitzki so enticing tonight is a combination of price (in line with or less than CarGo, Blackmon) and position (very little opportunity cost). If you’re going the value route at starting pitcher (Cashner), it makes sense to apply your savings here.
Additional shortstop notes: Hanley Ramirez (BOS) retains SS eligibility on DraftKings and is very underpriced at $3,900 there. The DraftKings pricing system doesn’t seem to take into account Verlander’s current skill level. The mid-tier/cheap options all share pretty similar values. In order of preference, salary aside, the options I like here are Jhonny Peralta (STL), Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Jean Segura (MIL) and Erick Aybar (LAA). In tournaments, Eugenio Suarez (CIN) and Ian Desmond (WAS) are strong candidates.
Todd Frazier (CIN) – Aside from the obvious (Eddie Butler, Coors Field, Rockies bullpen), Frazier differentiates himself from the other third baseman in Coors (Arenado) due to his absurd power peripherals right now. He’s managed to improve his ISO from .186 to .293 while simultaneously cutting his K rate 4.5 points. That’s a huge deal. Frazier is both generating the most amount of contact of his career (16.1 K rate), the most amount of hard hit contact (38.2 percent) and the most amount of aerial contact (68 percent LD+FB rate). If you’re going all out on one big bat from this game, Frazier or Votto should be it.
Next in line: Nolan Arenado (COL)
Brock Holt (BOS) – The pick on Justin Verlander theme continues as Holt is below the average cost of a hitter on most sites and hitting second for a Red Sox team with the fourth highest team total. Holt will swing and miss a decent amount of time for a guy with his limited power, but he’s learned to take some more walks (10.8 BB rate) and hits enough line drives (26.3 LD rate) to be useful. There’s probably not a huge ceiling here, but Holt can get on base multiple times while chipping in in the runs scored department.
Kyle Seager (SEA) – This is a simple case of a player with solid in season peripherals whose handedness splits against the opposing pitcher’s handedness splits makes him a value both in our model and via simple logic. Seager has dropped his K rate substantially from last season while continuing to generate quality contact and loft. Since 2012, he’s put up a .351 wOBA and .183 ISO against RHP. Meanwhile Drew Hutchison, who has struggled mightily this season (some of that due to bad luck), has allowed a .336 wOBA and 1.24 HR/9 to LHBs over the same span.
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – With Rodriguez turning back the clock power wise, he makes for a nice tournament option as he has plus power potential (Hughes has given up a .353 wOBA and 1.62 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 and is now missing no bats) and could come at a low ownership if others are thinking like me (pay up for Coors or go a little bit cheaper). As I write this, I’m being more convinced he’s viable in cash games as well if you can’t get up to the Coors guys.
Additional third base notes: Evan Longoria (TB) is too cheap on FanDuel. Chris Tillman has had reverse splits throughout his career, something somewhat confirmed by Longoria’s strong history against Tillman. I have a slight personal obsession with Jake Lamb (ARI) and like him a lot for tournaments, even cash games if he’s able to sneak back into the top five in the order. A couple of cheap third baseman hitting sixth for offenses we like are Pablo Sandoval (BOS) and David Freese (LAA). Both are tournament viable. I prefer Sandoval between the two, and at minimum price on FanDuel, I could see using him in cash games, especially if your starting pitcher is one of the top four expensive options, leaving you needing to save some money. Justin Turner (LAD) is cash viable on DraftKings where he’s really cheap ($3,400), also has second base eligibility and holds the platoon edge against Jon Niese who is average.
Top Play: Mike Trout (LAA) (best hitter in the game against a very below average pitcher leaves Trout as our top play in the model, although I’d manually adjust Votto ahead; due to price and position he’s better for tournaments than cash games unless going very risky at pitcher)
Rockies Outfield – Salary aside, I much prefer Charlie Blackmon (more speed, more consistency) than Carlos Gonzalez. Both are priced very high on FanDuel, so they aren’t must plays. The best bargain of the duo is Carlos Gonzalez on DraftKings where he’s just $4,400. While Gonzalez is clearly not the same hitter and Fantasy force he used to be (less pop, doesn’t run), he’s turned it around after a slow start. His ISO is up to a respectable .197, and he’s not having as many problems making contact as he did last season (4.1 point reduction in K percentage). As discussed above, opposing pitcher Anthony DeSclafani really struggles when he’s not holding the platoon edge.
Reds Outfield – Where you can pay up for Jay Bruce, he’s got phenomenal upside. He’s the third ranked outfielder in our model, behind only Mike Trout and Charlie Blackmon. Bruce has not surprisingly picked it up lately and could see even more success as his 13.8 HR/FB rate is low. With Bruce elevating the ball a lot (35.1 FB rate) and making hard contact (37.2 hard hit rate) he’s in line for a powerful second half with a skill set that’s perfect for Coors Field. It doesn’t hurt that Eddie Butler against LHBs represents the worst pitcher wOBA split on the day. Marlon Byrd doesn’t have the platoon edge and will have a worse lineup spot, but he’s the most affordable of the Coors outfielders across the industry, holding a mid-tier price on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Hanley Ramirez (BOS) – Verlander is fun to pick on because 1-he’s been so consistently bad 2-it’s been a Fantasy haven for opposing hitters as he’s allowing the long ball. Ramirez has a very friendly price for the Red Sox and should have plenty of RBI opportunities out of the fifth spot. He’s particularly valuable on DraftKings where he’s less expensive than any of the Coors outfielders and also holds shortstop eligibility. I prefer Ramirez to teammate Mookie Betts (BOS), who is better suited for tournaments.
Yasiel Puig (LAD) – Puig’s value is hurt as a result of him hitting out of the sixth spot, but we’re less concerned about that on the road and at this price point. Puig’s biggest issue is declining power, but if anything his peripherals tell me we should expect the power to improve from past seasons. He’s elevating the ball more than ever before (42.4 GB rate, career mark is 49.7) and avoiding pop ups (career low 3.8 IFFB rate). The biggest culprit seems to be a BABIP and HR/FB rate that are both career marks. If they normalize, Puig is going to be a huge bargain at his current price levels. He’ll face a below average starting pitcher in LH Jon Niese.
Abraham Almonte (SD) – One of the issues I’m having constructing rosters today is I’m drawn to a lot of mid and mid-high priced players but don’t have many mid-low priced guys to offset that salary cost, and that’s particularly evident in the outfield. As a result, I’m prone to simply punt one of the outfield spots if need be. One option is Abraham Almonte, who is minimum priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Almonte is by no means littered with upside, but he’s leading off, can steal a bag and faces a bad pitcher in Dan Haren (career low in both K and GB rate). For a speedster up top, Almonte actually has a touch of pop as well, averaging 13 homers per 162 games between the Minors and Majors since 2013. Some additional punt options on DraftKings (where minimum salaried players are more valuable) are Marc Krauss (DET), Ryan Raburn (CLE) and possibly some of the Dodgers, depending on how their lineup shakes out.
Additional outfield notes: A couple of speedsters who aren’t pure punts but still provide a lot of cap relief if at the top of the lineup are Ender Inciarte (ARI) and Anthony Gose (DET). Both are in good offensive parks, hold the platoon edge and have team totals of 4, pushing upwards. While I struggled to find low-mid options, a pair of Arizona teammates stand out as cash fill ins (David Peralta/Yasmany Tomas (ARI)). In tournaments, my favorite pairings of teammates are Ryan Braun/Carlos Gomez (MIL) and Jacoby Ellsbury/Brett Gardner (NYY). Individual tournament only options include Yoenis Cespedes (DET) and Randal Grichuk (STL).
Rankings (price not considered):
1) Max Scherzer (WAS)
2) Corey Kluber (CLE)
3) Chris Archer (TB)
4) Felix Hernandez (SEA)
5) Michael Pineda (NYY)
6) Andrew Cashner (SD)
7) Jesse Chavez (OAK)
8) Jose Quintana (CHW)
9) Dan Haren (MIA)
10) Jeff Locke (PIT)
11) Scott Kazmir (HOU)
12) Drew Hutchison (TOR)
13) Tim Cooney (STL)
14) Nick Tropeano (LAA)
15) Manny Banuelos (ATL)
16) Chris Tillman (BAL)
Max Scherzer (WAS) – Our model has Scherzer as the top starting pitcher, with a clear gap between him and the next trio of guys that make up the second tier. It’s not particularly difficult to see why. Scherzer averages 7.26 innings pitched per game while striking out 29.8 percent of batters faced. That’s a heck of a lot of points right there, and of course his run prevention on top of that is elite as well (2.09 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 2.84 xFIP). The issue with Scherzer is price. While he’s in a tier of his own, I don’t think he’s worth the price game between himself and our number two pitcher (Corey Kluber) in cash games, especially when taking into account opportunity cost (Coors Field, other expensive hitters). Consider Scherzer an elite tournament option, but don’t feel compelled to force him into your cash game lineups.
Next in line:
Corey Kluber (CLE) – Kluber is a viable option on FanDuel for $11,000 and a near lock on DraftKings for $2,500 less than Scherzer. While the gap between Kluber and Scherzer is tigher on FanDuel in terms of pricing, the win is more heavily emphasized there. Kluber comes in as the largest favorite of our top 10 starting pitchers (-170), while Scherzer is barely favored (-119) as he’s on the road and the Nats lineup is depleted. The increased win probability for Kluber keeps the projected output between the two closer. And the bottom line is, while Scherzer outscores Kluber in this situation more times than not, Kluber is still giving you the very high upside, high floor option you want. Like Scherzer, Kluber throws a lot of innings (averaging 7.05 per start) and strikes out a lot of batters (28.2 percent). He’ll face a White Sox team that has struggled all season long and actually represents a slightly better matchup, in terms of wRC+, than the Pirates do for Scherzer.
Andrew Cashner (SD) – Cashner, on both single and multi starting pitcher sites, is one of the best ways to capture a combination of upside and safety at starting pitcher while still being able to get a healthy amount of exposure to expensive bats, particularly Coors Field. The Marlins were a team we picked on with RHP when they were at full strength, and now they’re out Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton, two of their top three hitters in the order. The Marlins are 29th in wRC+ against RHP on the season and strike out at a slightly above average clip. The particular lineup they are currently throwing out is the one we have projected as the worst by wRC of the teams in action tonight, taking into account opposing pitcher handedness. Cashner is listed as a -136 favorite at home (very favorable pitcher’s park), in a game with the lowest total on the night (6.5). Cashner can be frustrating to own at times and isn’t someone I’d peg as consistent. Ultimately, though he has a decent set of skills (a bit above average across the board – K, BB and GB rates) and the matchup is so elite that he can be used in all formats. I’m admittedly still torn on whether or not to pay up for a top two tier starting pitcher on FanDuel, which will eliminate a lot of Coors exposure, or go with the lesser pitcher in Cashner, which allows plenty of Coors exposure. On multi-SP sites like DraftKings, it’s actually not that difficult to pair Kluber and Cashner and still get Coors exposure.
Additional starting pitcher notes: I love Chris Archer‘s (TB) upside and in our more strikeout heavy model, he’s about even with Corey Kluber. Felix Hernandez (SEA) is overpriced on FanDuel, but he’s a solid value on DraftKings, where he can be used over Kluber if you need the savings. Michael Pineda (NYY) has a lot of upside as a mid-tier value and is an awesome option for tournaments. He’d pop more as a cash game option if Andrew Cashner didn’t rate similarly in our model for a much lower price. Two of my favorite tournament options among the cheap pitchers are Jeff Locke (PIT) and Chris Tillman (BAL). Locke will get overlooked as people won’t want to take a below average pitcher facing Scherzer. However, he doesn’t need to win to be valuable at his price point. Lock is home in a great pitcher’s park, and the Nationals current lineup has our highest projected K percentage of the day based on opposing pitcher handedness. Tillman is far from safe, but he’s the cheapest of our ranked starting pitchers on DraftKings and on a nice little run lately. He’s coming off two great starts and has struck out at least four batters in four straight outings for the first time all season. He gets a nice park shift pitching in Tampa Bay, and the Rays offense lacks power.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (email@example.com) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Cincinnati Reds
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Colorado Rockies
4) Los Angeles Angels
These teams were covered very extensively in the position by position analysis. While the Rockies have more offensive upside than the Red Sox in a vacuum, when we take into account player salaries and values, the Red Sox stack is more valuable. The Reds are clearly number one. I’m less adamant about forcing Coors Field than I was the other day, but I’d make sure you have at least some Reds exposure as it’s the combination of park, guaranteed ninth inning, Eddie Butler and the Rockies bullpen that gives them such a good combination of floor and upside.
1) New York Yankees (You can stack against Phil Hughes almost every start now in tournaments. When he’s bad he gives up a ton of homers and he’s been bad often this season, allowing a 1.67 HR/9 in large part due to a 33 percent reduction in his K rate from a year ago and an increase in hard hit rate; the fact that Hughes is backed up by the worst bullpen according to xFIP adds to this stack)
2) Arizona Diamondbacks (Goldschmidt is an elite tournament option due to his skills, the home park and an expected low ownership; he’s surrounded by enough LHBs to give Jimmy Nelson trouble)
3) Milwaukee Brewers (I think they’ll go overlooked since they are 26th in wRC+ against LHP, but our model tells us this team should be good against LHP, particularly up top – Lucroy, Braun and Gomez all have great splits against southpaws and Hernan Perez is a punt option who could see a better lineup spot with Aramis Ramirez traded)
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.
WSH at PIT 7:05: Dry. Temps near 80 falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 6. Wind northwest 4-8 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind blows out to center early and is a 6 on my scale then becoming a 5.
DET at BOS 7:10: A few showers and thunderstorms early in the game will cause a 30% chance of a late start to the game or a delay during the 1st few innings. <10% chance of a ppd. Wind northeast 4-8 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.
CHW at CLE 7:10: Dry. Temps near 80 falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 6. Wind light and variable. The wind is a 5.
LAD at NYM 7:10: Dry. Temps near 80 falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 6. Wind light and variable. The wind is a 5.
BLT at TB 7:10: Dome.
HOU at KC 8:10: A 10% chance of a delay due to a thunderstorm. Temps in the low to mid 90s falling into the mid 80s. Air density is a 9 becoming an 8. Wind south 7-14 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.
NYY at MIN 8:10: Dry. Temps near 90 falling to near 80. Air density is an 8. Wind west-northwest 10-20 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8 becoming a 6.
ATL at STL 8:15: A 10% chance of a delay due to a widely scattered thunderstorm. Temps in the mid 80s falling to near 80. Air density is an 8. Wind southeast 6-12 mph lessening to 4-8 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.
CIN at COL 8:40: Another game in Denver, another near miss it looks like to me. A mass or line of thunderstorms will develop in the
mountains to Denver’s west and southwest and will try to move into the region. However, as is so often the case, many thunderstorms weaken if not downright die as the drift away from the mountains and this may be the case tonight. However, it is a close call as sometimes they survive the trip if there are enough of them and that is also possible tonight. So, I would think the ppd risk is low but not something to ignore (10-20%) while the risk of a delay(s) is more likely, 30-40%. Temps near 80 falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 10. Wind west 10-20 mph lessening to 7-14 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
MIL at AZ 9:40: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the low 100s falling into the mid 90s. Air density is a 9. Wind west 7-14 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
TEX at LAA 10:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph lessening to 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8 becoming 6.
TOR at SEA 10:10: Retractable roof. A slight risk (20%) of some showers. Temps in the mid to upper 60s falling into the low 60s. Air density is a 5. Wind southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7.
MIA at SD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 70s falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind west-northwest 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
OAK at SF 10:15: Dry. Temps in the low 70s falling into the low to mid 60s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind west-northwest 12-25 mph lessening to 10-20 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 9.