MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – July 25th, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: The game in KC seems to be the only worry today/tonight with severe weather possible. Would not worry too much about a ppd.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Brayan Pena/Tucker Barnhart (CIN) – Pena isn’t a good hitter but he should draw a top six spot at Coors Field today against the below average LHP Chris Rusin and as a result, the Reds have a team total approaching six runs. Those contextual factors are enough to consider Pena the best value play at the position in a vaccum for the cheap price you’re paying everywhere. The catcher position has been in flux lately and Tucker Barhnart has received more action so if he’s in the lineup instead of Pena, I’d consider him a good value as well (will have the platoon edge against Rusin, who has surrendered a .372 wOBA and 1.41 HR/9 to RHBs in the last few seasons).
Additional catcher notes: The Reds catchers make the most sense for cash games when you adjust for all the contextual factors in their favor. If you want to dip outside of those catchers in tournaments, I view Brian McCann (NYY) as a fun tournament option. He’s outside of Yankee Stadium and in a bad hitting environment (Target Field)/he won’t have the platoon edge but Tommy Milone is known for serving up the long ball, even against LHBs (1.27 HR/9 allowed to 548 LHBs). Nick Hundley (COL) will be at Coors Field but he will likely hit eight now that Corey Dickerson is back. I consider him more of a tournament option when you adjust for price and matchup (the Reds catchers are much cheaper and will benefit from a better overall matchup against Chris Rusin).
Joey Votto (CIN) – Not often does our model rank a L/L matchup so highly but Votto (fourth ranked hitter in our model) isn’t your usual L/L hitter and he’s in the best hitting environment in all of baseball facing a below average southpaw (Chris Rusin). Votto has been a good hitter against LHP (.377 wOBA, .198 ISO against LHP since 2012) and despite Chris Rusin neutralizing LHBs well on the surface (.279 wOBA allowed to 192 LHBs), he’s not a good pitcher (15 percent K rate and has a projected ZiPS ERA over 5.00 for the rest of this season). With a lack of mid-tier values at first base around the industry, Votto represents the safest source of production at the position and more upside lurks around after Chris Rusin (Rockies have the worst bullpen in all of baseball).
Albert Pujols (LAA) – This is a selection geared towards DraftKings, since Pujols is $4,100 on that site. He doesn’t have a great matchup overall (Yovani Gallardo has surrendered a .304 wOBA to RHBs since 2012) but Gallardo doesn’t miss any bats and Pujols has seen a rebirth against RHP this season (.387 wOBA, .298 ISO against RHP and he continues to have a high contact rate). Pujols isn’t priced correctly on DraftKings relative to his production and if you can’t quite pay up for Joey Votto in cash games, he represents a strong value on that particular site.
Additional first base notes: Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) is a next in line option to Joey Votto this evening. This isn’t surprising, as Goldschmidt is averaging the most Fantasy points at his position and he’s facing a pitcher that allows contact at an above average rate. I’d rather pay for Votto’s combination of safety and upside at similar price points in cash games but Goldschmidt is a strong tournament option nonetheless. Adam Lind (MIL) has an awesome matchup against Rubby de la Rosa (has surrendered a .382 wOBA and 1.61 HR/9 to 512 LHBs) but he’s priced too closely to the written options above (his skills are good but he’s not Votto, Pujols or Goldschmidt). He’s cash game viable due to the matchup, hitting environment and plus skills he rates much better as a tournament option. Mark Teixeira (NYY) is outside of Yankee Stadium and at Target Field but he faces Tommy Milone (struggles with home runs). I’d target his lower ownership in multi-entry tournaments. If you need to punt the position, Ben Paulsen (COL) is serviceable in that respect. He won’t hit better than seventh and he won’t have a plus matchup in his first few PAs but he’s at Coors Field and will have the platoon edge. Those factors are enough to consider him as a punt option for cash games, especially since the position lacks mid-tier values around the industry (better to pay up for a high priced option or punt altogether).
Brian Dozier (MIN) – Our model has Brandon Phillips as the top play but I’m going to manually adjust it and put Dozier ahead since he’s a much better hitter. Dozier has increased his loft rate (47 percent FB rate this season, 42 percent for his career), he’s hitting the ball harder (32 percent hard hit rate, a career high) and his overall skills against LHP (.372 wOBA, .231 ISO against LHP since 2012) are great. Throw in there a plus matchup (CC Sabathia has surrendered a .343 wOBA and 1.39 HR/9 to RHBs in the last three seasons) and Dozier’s $3,700 FanDuel price tag looks like a bargain.
Next in line:
Brandon Phillips (CIN) – Phillips isn’t very skilled, even when he has the platoon edge (91 wRC+ against LHP since the beginning of 2012) but he’s increased his contact rate (12 percent this season, 14 percent for his career) and he’s leading off against Chris Rusin (.372 wOBA allowed to RHBs in the last few seasons) at Coors Field. We can expect at least five PAs on the road for Phillips with a decent chase for a sixth one (Reds team total is approaching six runs), which puts Phillips next in line to Dozier at a more affordable price level around the industry.
Scooter Gennett (MIL) – If you can’t quite get up to Phillips or Dozier in cash games on DraftKings, Gennett represents a nice value at $3,200. He’s skilled against RHP (.357 wOBA, .161 ISO against RHP since 2013) and we’ve already mentioned Rubby de la Rosa’s struggles with LHBs (particularly with power). Gennett doesn’t have the same expected PAs as the written options above (he will likely hit sixth while Dozier and Phillips are leadoff hitters) but he’s serviceable in cash games on sites that have priced him well below the price of an average hitter.
Additional second base notes: We’re unsure about Ivan De Jesus Jr.’s (CIN) availability (he’s a backup) but if he’s in the lineup again, he represents a fine value play on DraftKings ($3,200 and has 2B/SS eligibility). Jose Altuve (HOU) is always in play, especially against LHP but the Royals limit upside due to their elite defense/bullpen. It’s still worth paying for Altuve’s first few PAs against the below average Danny Duffy but I would only do it in tournaments.
Troy Tulowtizki (COL) – Our model, which has accounted for Tulowitzki’s matchup (Johnny Cueto), still has him ranked inside our top 10 hitters. Tulowitzki has been a bit frustrating this season but that stems from a decrease in contact (21 percent K rate, highest of his career and five percent above his normal rate). However, he’s generating more loft (41 percent FB rate, three percent increase over his career rate) and he’s hitting the ball harder than he has in previous seasons (41 percent hard hit rate, seven percent increase over his career rate). Tulowitzki is a .427 wOBA, .238 ISO hitter at Coors Field (sample taken from the last three seasons) and despite an unappealing matchup against Cueto (who hasn’t pitched well lately), his upside can be huge later in the game (Reds have one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball). His $4,400 price tag on DraftKings is hard to pass up in any format.
Eugenio Suarez (CIN) – Suarez is overpriced on DraftKings ($4,300) but I view him as a strong value on FanDuel ($3,400). He’s the most logical value at the shortstop position after Tulowitzki on FanDuel relative to his production (through 130 PAs this season, Suarez has accumulated a .361 wOBA, .181 ISO and he’s generating a 38 percent loft rate), hitting environment (Coors Field) and lineup spot (sixth). We’re less concerned with evaluating lineup positions at Coors Field for the road team since they have an inflated number of expected PAs (at least one more PA than usual) but hitting sixth in this sort of environment in a plus matchup (Chris Rusin doesn’t miss bats, which is a terrible skill to lack at Coors Field) sets up really well for Suarez.
Additional shortstop notes: Carlos Correa (HOU) has been an awesome hitter against LHP in his first major league stint. Kauffman stadium and the Royals defense/bullpen will likely limit his upside but he’s still worth a shot in multi-entry tournaments. Teammate Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) will hit second and he’s cheap around the industry. He’s a salary relief option on DraftKings ($2,800) if you don’t want to pay for this version of Troy Tulowitzki (has more of a boom or bust nature now since his contact rate has fallen off but he’s still too cheap relative to his overall skills on that particular site).
Todd Frazier (CIN) – Frazier is our number one ranked hitter tonight and the upside he possesses in this matchup is unparalleled at the third base position. We knew that Frazier was a nice hitter against LHP but this season he has elevated his skills (.425 wOBA, .407 ISO in 97 PAs against southpaws this season). Frazier has increased his contact rate by four percent (currently a career high), he’s generating scary loft (48 percent FB rate) and he’s hitting the ball harder than he ever has (38 percent hard hit rate). These meaningful increases have made Frazier a better overall hitter (.384 wOBA) and he’s way more powerful (.292 ISO). Chris Rusin has been terrible vs. RHBs and Frazier should receive at least five PAs at Coors Field and even when the game reaches the late stages, the Rockies bullpen should help (worse bullpen in baseball). Frazier has a high price point around the industry but he’s a great investment regardless of the format you choose.
Next in line:
Nolan Arenado (COL) – (his $4,900 price tag on DraftKings makes him cash game viable but I’d rather pay all the way up for Frazier in cash games; don’t be discouraged by his matchup against Johnny Cueto, as he hasn’t pitched well of late and the Reds bullpen is a mess)
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – Rodriguez has a value price tag on FanDuel ($3,500) and if you’re not paying all the way for Todd Frazier, he represents a strong option for cash games. There were questions about Rodriguez’s baseline at the beginning of the season but those aren’t viable any longer (.271/.371/.508 triple slash line this season, after hip surgeries and about a year and a half off from baseball activities). So Rodriguez is no longer a 50 home run, 130 RBI machine but that’s an unfair level of production to expect at age 40. The fact of the matter is that Rodriguez continues to be relevant in DFS and facing a weak LHP (Tommy Milone has surrendered the fourth highest wOBA against RHBs on this slate and he has allowed a 1.29 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012) should help him produce a positive Fantasy performance, even outside of Yankee Stadium.
Additional third base notes: third base is a great position to pay high dollars tonight but if you need some salary relief, Jake Lamb (ARI) and Adrian Beltre (TEX) are options that should draw some interest on DraftKings. They don’t have great matchups but they will have the platoon edge and they’re cheap on that particular site. If looking for other usable mid-tier values, Trevor Plouffe (MIN) is a good hitter against LHP and CC Sabathia doesn’t handle RHBs well.
Mike Trout (LAA) – (Best hitter in baseball against a pitcher that struggles to generate strikeouts; he has an approachable price point on DraftKings, where he rates as a great option across all formats)
Marlon Byrd (CIN) – Byrd is our third ranked hitter on this slate and I consider him a core piece of cash game lineups. He’s a good hitter vs. LHP (.367 wOBA, .216 ISO against LHP since 2012) and facing Chris Rusin at Coors Field serves as elite factors that aren’t included in his valuation today. Byrd is only $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel and he’s a middle of the order bat for a Reds offense that has a team total approaching six runs. His price is simply too depressed relative to his production against LHP and the elite contextual factors, which is why he rates as the strongest value play in a vacuum at the position. Teammate Jay Bruce won’t have the platoon edge in the first few PAs but he has pop against LHP and the worst bullpen in baseball lurks around the corner. He’s worth his price tag in tournaments but I’d steer away from him in cash games since there are better cost-effective values at the position.
Rockies outfield- Charlie Blackmon (.359 wOBA, .166 ISO), Carlos Gonzalez (.394 wOBA, .265 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (.394 wOBA, .256 ISO) all hit RHP well, particularly at Coors Field. The Rockies have what seems like a tough matchup against Johnny Cueto, who’s a good pitcher but he’s been pretty bad as of late. For such a “tough” matchup, the Rockies have a team total of five runs. The Reds bullpen is one of the worst in baseball so there will be prime opportunities for production here. Blackmon ($4,400), Gonzalez ($3,700) and Dickerson ($3,300) are way underpriced on DraftKings, where they rate as elite values. Gonzalez and Dickerson are ranked inside our top 10 hitters and Blackmon rates a bit behind (top 25) but his combination of plus skills, leadoff spot and ability to run makes him just as good of an option in cash games as the other two. On FanDuel they’re priced fairly so I don’t mind fading them in cash games on that site but fading the Rockies just because Cueto is a good pitcher ignores the overall factors here and that’s a decision we don’t agree with (Vegas agrees with us).
Gerardo Parra (MIL) – While Parra’s peripherals this season are pretty consistent with his career, he’s hitting the ball harder (35 percent hard hit rate, five percent increase over his career rate) and has found more holes (.360 BABIP). As a result, Parra is enjoying a career season (.371 wOBA, .193 ISO) and his matchup against Rubby de la Rosa (struggles mightily with LHBs) gives him plenty of upside at the leadoff spot. He’s priced fairly around the industry but if I’m stepping away from Coors Field, Parra represents a strong next in line option relative to his production and matchup.
Ender Inciarte (ARI) – Inciarte isn’t a great hitter (.323 wOBA vs. RHP) but he will leadoff and has the platoon edge against Taylor Jungmann (doesn’t miss many bats) at Chase Field. He’s worthy of his $2,700 price tag on FanDuel relative to the contextual factors but at a similar price to the Rockies outfield on DraftKings, he rates better as a secondary option.
Chris Young (NYY) – The Yankees are facing a pretty terrible park shift (from Yankee Stadium to Target Field) but they have a team total of 4.5 runs and they’re facing Tommy Milone (home run prone despite pitching in great environments for pitchers throughout his career). In addition, the park shift for RHBs isn’t nearly as severe as it is for LHBs. Enter Chris Young, who’s main skill is power (.204 ISO against LHP since 2012). I would only consider him if I need relief at the outfield position, since he’s cheap around the industry but trails the hitters above in our model.
Additional outfield notes: Bryce Harper (WSH) and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) are two options that I have in mind for tournaments. Harper has been the best hitter in baseball this season and he will have the platoon edge. McCutchen is priced affordably on DraftKings but he doesn’t have a great matchup against Gio Gonzalez. Both are destined for tournament lineups but I’d stray away in cash games due to the low scoring environment. Starling Marte (PIT) destroys LHP but like his teammate Andrew McCutchen, he’s a better option for tournaments due to the unappealing scoring environment. David Peralta (ARI) is a fine value on sites where he’s priced as an average hitter relative to his skills and a matchup against a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats but keep in mind that he’s now a pinch hit risk late in games (Diamondbacks are fully healthy). Billy Hamilton (CIN) is buried in the Reds lineup but his speed upside translates well in tournaments on FanDuel for $3,400 (no repercussions for caught stealing). Torii Hunter (MIN) is a good hitter vs. LHP and he will have the platoon edge against the underwhelming CC Sabathia. He’s a fine cash game option on sites where he’s priced below the average cost of a hitter but keep in mind that he’s priced too closely to the Rockies outfield on DraftKings.
Rankings (price not considered):
1) Chris Sale (CWS)
2) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)
3) Carlos Martinez (STL)
4) Hector Santiago (LAA)
5) Ian Kennedy (SD)
6) Matt Harvey (NYM)
7) A.J. Burnett (PIT)
8) Gio Gonzalez (WSH)
9) Johnny Cueto (CIN)
10) Taylor Jungmann (MIL)
11) Rubby de la Rosa (ARI)
12) Zach Lee (LAD)
13) David Phelps (MIA)
Chris Sale (CWS) – Despite not being a favorite (+105 underdog on the road), Sale deserves his own tier at the starting pitcher position. This is particularly the case on a site like DraftKings, where strikeouts are worth more. Sale’s strikeout rate is insane (33 percent K rate this season) and it’s backed up by a 68 percent F-Strike rate, 16 percent SwStr rate and 38 percent chase rate. No other starting pitcher comes close to those strikeout skills on this slate; he’s pitching away from U.S. Cellular Field and should benefit from a more neutral environment (Progressive Field has a park factor of -96, which is considered around neutral). Sale’s run prevention is elite (2.86 ERA/2.38 FIP/2.39 xFIP) and he doesn’t get hit hard (less than one percent hard minus soft hit rate) so when you combine his skill set altogether, the matchup shouldn’t scare anyone away (Indians are ranked sixth in wRC+ against LHP). While he’s more valuable on DraftKings due to the strikeout scoring, it probably makes sense to fade him in cash games on FanDuel (where a win is more important) and roster a cheaper value in order to have more exposure to Coors Field.
Next in line:
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – While Carrasco is certainly not Chris Sale, he’s next in line in strikeout skills (28 percent K rate fueled by a 65 percent F-Strike rate, 13 percent SwStr rate and 39 percent chase rate). His ERA predictors are a full run lower than his actual ERA (3.94 ERA/2.81 FIP/2.73 xFIP) but that sort of regression might not happen overnight (16 percent hard minus soft hit rate). The White Sox represent a plus matchup (ranked 27th in wRC+) but they’re a bit tough to evaluate since they should be better moving forward (most of their hitters are under-performing this season and have performed better recently). The Rockies are facing Johnny Cueto but they’re at Coors Field and some of their prices on DraftKings are too low (for example, Carlos Gonzalez is $3,700) so it’s easier to fit Chris Sale on that particular site. However, Carrasco is much more affordable and he gives you nice strikeout upside for a $10,300 price. I don’t mind going down to his salary level in order to capture more Coors Field exposure.
Ian Kennedy (SD) – If you’ve read our content in the last few days, you probably picked on this matchup in all formats (Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner delivered quality starts). We’re going to continue to pick on the Marlins (ranked 29th in wRC+ and they’re striking out over 20 percent of the time against RHP). Their missing their best two hitters in key spots for run production (Dee Gordon leads off and is always a threat to steal multiple bases while Giancarlo Stanton is one of the best hitters in baseball and he hits in the middle of the lineup). Kennedy isn’t an elite pitcher but he’s accumulated a 8.17 K/9 and his run prevention is better than the surface level indicates. Kennedy’s ERA is 4.78 but his xFIP sits at 3.92 and his SIERA is even lower (3.78). Both xFIP and SIERA are calling for meaningful regression because it’s regressing his unsustainable HR/FB rate (21 percent HR/FB rate, highest of his career and he’s usually hovering around the league average rate of 10-11 percent). This is a great matchup for that to regress (the Marlins lack power, especially when Stanton is out of the lineup). The Marlins have a team total of three runs and Petco Park is a nice pitching environment. Kennedy is cheap around the industry and while he’s not a must play, his price point is difficult to pass up since he gives you a decent floor at the position and allows you to stack Coors Field on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Additional starting pitcher notes: Carlos Martinez (STL) and Hector Santiago (LAA) are preferred values for cash games on FanDuel, where Chris Sale is expensive (he’s an underdog) and it’s harder to obtain Coors Field exposure due to high price points. Martinez is the better pitcher and he’s the highest favorite on this slate (-210). That’s enough to consider him in cash games on a site like FanDuel, where run prevention and a win are more important than Ks (Martinez has a difficult matchup for strikeouts but the Braves don’t possess any real threats in their lineup). Santiago has the better matchup (Rangers are a bottom three team against LHP and they’re striking out close to 24 percent of the time) and he’s at home, which is a good environment for his fly ball tendencies. He’s only $7,800 on FanDuel (-170 favorite) and his run prevention (2.30 ERA), at least on the surface, is much better than Ian Kennedy‘s. His strikeout rate will likely take a hit moving forward (underlying strikeout peripherals are below average) and that’s why I view him as a better option for tournaments on DraftKings. Taylor Jungmann (MIL) and Rubby de la Rosa (ARI) are good options for tournaments around the industry. De la Rosa has more upside than Jungmann on DraftKings (better strikeout skills) and a matchup against a heavy right-handed team (Brewers usually have six RHBs in their lineup) should help him (he struggles a ton with LHBs but has neutralized RHBs at an elite clip this season). Jungmann has been able to keep the ball on the ground and his run prevention has been very good but I’m concerned that it won’t last (allowing too much contact and the underlying K peripherals should keep his K rate at a below average rate). I’d still throw him in a multi-entry tournament in this matchup (Diamondbacks are slightly worse than a neutral offense against RHP, even when adjusting for Chase Field). Matt Harvey (NYM) has a difficult matchup against the Dodgers (number one ranked offense against RHP) and Johnny Cueto (CIN) is at Coors Field but both have depressed price tags on DraftKings. I don’t mind using them in tournaments on that particular site but I won’t touch them in cash games (they haven’t performed well as of late and they’re not in good spots tonight). We don’t know a whole lot about Zach Lee (LAD) but he’s $4,600 on FanDuel and faces the Mets. We don’t need to know much to consider him for tournaments in that price range.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Coors Field
We’ve covered the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies extensively in our content today. They have the largest team totals on the slate and are playing a game in the best hitting environment in all of baseball. There’s also added upside later in the game, as both teams have terrible bullpens.
1) New York Yankees (Facing Tommy Milone, who struggles with the long ball, and they have a team total of 4.5 runs. They’re a better offense against RHP but even their LHBs have appeal for tournaments in this matchup.)
2) Minnesota Twins (CC Sabathia is awful vs. RHBs and the Twins have scored the fourth most runs against LHP this season; fading Coors Field altogether is probably not ideal but if you want to step out of that game, the Twins and Yankees are strong options as contrarian/secondary stacks.)
3) Arizona Diamondbacks (Taylor Jungmann doesn’t get ahead of hitters and his strikeout abilities are limited. He’s been able to keep the ball in the ground but he’s headed towards some level of regression moving forward. The Diamondbacks are about a neutral offense against RHP but we’re hoping that a matchup against a contact-oriented pitcher brings good results).
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
WSH at PIT 7:05: Dry. Temps in the low 80s falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind southwest 4-8 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind blows out to left to begin the game and is a 6 on the scale becoming a 5.
CHW at CLE 7:10: Dry. Temps in the low 80s falling into the low 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind southwest 6-12 mph lessening to 4-8 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.
HOU at KC 7:10: Thunderstorms, perhaps strong to severe, will be poised to move into the region after the game starts. A delay is certainly likely or probably (40-60%). The game may be stopped if the weather is severe enough but the chances of this happening at any one particular location is rather slim (<10%). Temps in the upper 80s falling to near 80. Air density is a 9. Wind southeast 7-14 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.
NYY at MIN 7:10: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 80s falling into the mid to upper 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind southeast 4-8 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.
LAD at NYM 7:10: Dry. Temps in the upper 70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind southeast 4-8 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.
ATL at STL 7:15: Thunderstorms around during the day should give way to a dry evening. Just a game to watch in case thunderstorms linger or redevelop (10% chance of a delay because of this). Temps in the mid 80s. Air density is a 9 (very humid). Wind south-southeast 4-8 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.
CIN at COL 8:10: A 10% chance of a delay due to a widely scattered thunderstorm. Temps near 90 falling into the mid to upper 70s. Air density is a 10. Wind east becoming southeast 8-16 mph which blows from right to left at first and then out to left. The wind is a 5 becoming a 7.
MIL at AZ 8:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the mid 100s falling into the upper 90s. Air density is a 9. Wind west 7-14 mph which blows left to right. The wind is a 5.
MIA at SD 8:40: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-northwest 7-14 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
TEX at LAA 9:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph lessening to 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.