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July 25 MLB DFS: Searching Near and Faria for SP
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Welcome to July 25 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 25 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 25 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
12:40 Catcher
15:03 First Base
17:31 Second Base
19:30 Third Base
22:39 Shortstop
24:54 Outfield
29:45 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 25 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

With Madison Bumgarner (SF) struggling with velocity (average of 89-90 mph on FB) and generating swinging strikes (4.9 swinging strike and 5.2 swinging strike rate in first two starts back), Tuesday’s evening slate is one without an ace. Bumgarner has the lowest implied total against (3.3 runs) which is indicative of pitching in the best environment on the slate but the questionable skill set (relative to his usual baseline) makes him a better play in tournaments. The Pirates aren’t an imposing lineup but they also don’t strike out often (18.9 percent K Rate, 17th in wRC+ against LHP). The price is softer on DraftKings ($9,700) where he’s more of a borderline cash game option.

Without an ace, the projections are bunched. Alongside Bumgarner in our extended top tier are: Jacob Faria (TB), Charlie Morton (PHI), Jose Berrios (MIN), Sonny Gray (OAK), and Michael Fulmer (DET). Across both sites, the softest price tag is on Jacob Faria who hasn’t carried over the enormous strikeout rate we saw in the minors (34.7 percent K Rate in AAA) but has been respectable (22.3 percent K Rate in MLB) and has done a better job limiting walks (9.1 percent vs. 7.4 percent) and hard contact (27.5 percent hard hit allowed, 23.2 sot hit rate via FanGraphs). Faria gets the benefit of above average pitching conditions in Tampa and perhaps most importantly a very right-hand heavy Orioles’ lineup. In his brief major league stint, Faria has struck out 25.6 percent of RHBs compared to 15.4 percent of LHBs faced. Within this tier, Charlie Morton and Jose Berrios also have affordable price tags on DraftKings that earn them consideration as a SP2 option. Berrios has a scary matchup with the Dodgers (fifth ranked in wRC+ against RHP) but he’s a cheap source of strikeouts at just $7,100. We prefer him in tournaments.  Gray and Fulmer are a bit expensive on DraftKings and also better tournament targets.

The next tier of starters is an extended one so we’ll focus on the site specific values to help drive lineup construction. On FanDuel, Jon Gray (COL) is just $6,900. He’s pitching outside of Colorado and potentially gets a Cardinals’ offense without Matt Carpenter. It’s warm in St. Louis and the implied total against is high (4.5) but Gray has posted a K Rate about two percentage points better on the road than at home in his career. The cash game decision on FanDuel is largely between Faria or Gray with an outside shot at Morton in our eyes. On DraftKings, Jordan Montgomery (NYY) is just $5,900. He has one of the lower implied totals on the slate (4.2 runs) and is a big favorite at -170. Montgomery has the benefit of an elite bullpen behind him (which also deflates the implied run total) and as a big favorite should have the benefit of the elite arms supporting him out of any jams. The price tag paired with Faria allows you to do almost anything with your offense on DraftKings.

Since the projections are so congested and the options aren’t expensive on DraftKings it’s almost dealer’s choice when it comes to SP cash game values. Kenta Maeda (LAD), Lance Lynn (STL), and Drew Pomeranz (BOS) all come with mid-$7,000s price tags that push them down the list of “value” but it’s only a point or two separating them from the top. Maeda gets the second lowest implied total on the slate (3.6) against a Twins’ offense losing the DH and getting a big negative park shift. Lynn gets the Rockies’ 29th ranked offense in wRC+ against RHP at home where Lynn has posted a 2.66 ERA this season. Pomeranz gets the big park shift but faces a tougher matchup against the Mariners (10th in wRC+ against LHP with a below average K Rate). All three are acceptable targets in cash games if you want to spend a bit more than Montgomery.   

In tournaments, Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) comes with big strikeout upside against a Diamondbacks’ lineup that is primarily RH. Wade Miley (TB) is free on DraftKings and gets the park shift and a favorable matchup for strikeouts against the Rays. Seth Lugo (NYM) was dominant last time out and gets the woeful Padres’ offense. He doesn’t have a big K Rate but the Padres’ help inflate strikeouts and the price tag is OK. On FanDuel, Taijuan Walker (ARI) is also very cheap and viable as a secondary tournament target.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position. We have neutral conditions in Yankee Stadium tonight, but this is one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball and Sanchez will face rookie Luis Castillo. Castillo has been phenomenal so far, but he’s been prone to the long ball (1.80 HR/9). Sanchez is a great play on FD where the $3,300 price tag is reachable in all formats.

Russell Martin (TOR) is the best value at the position on DK. Martin gets a great lineup spot (second) and he’s just $2,800.

If you needed to go cheaper on FD, Brian McCann (HOU) is an excellent value if hitting cleanup. His lineup spot fluctuates, so we’ll need confirmation before deploying him. He’ll rate well even if he hit fifth or sixth thanks to a $2,600 price tag with the platoon edge in Philadelphia against a power prone pitcher. He’s also one of the best alternatives to Martin on DK but he comes with a more appropriate price tag.

J.T. Realmuto (MIA) is in the best hitting environment in this slate (Texas) and usually gets a top five lineup spot when he has the platoon edge. He’s a viable target on DK (second best value).

First Base

Eric Thames (MIL) remains wildly underpriced on DK, where he’s just $3,700 in a matchup vs. Edwin Jackson. Jackson has made four appearances this season and he carries a 9.6% K rate/6.14 xFIP and a 31% GB rate. Thames rates as a lock and we’re treating him as such on both sites.

Thames’ ownership is going to be high in this slate, but we have targets to differentiate yourself from the pack in tournaments. Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) is an easy pivot on FD where he’s just $100 more than Thames. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) carries a more appropriate price tag but he’s in Chase Field. Freddie Freeman (ATL) will have the platoon edge against a power prone pitcher.  Miguel Cabrera (DET) has been awful lately but he’s just $3,400 on DK. Chris Davis (BAL) has a tougher context but he’s sub $4,000 on DK and he’ll have the platoon edge. Yonder Alonso (OAK) will have the platoon edge vs. Cesar Valdez in Rogers Centre. Valdez has been awful – in eight appearances out of the pen, he’s allowed a 50% HHR (according to fangraphs) and hasn’t missed bats. Alonso is $3,000 on FD. Matt Holliday (NYY) and Wil Myers (SD) (HHR is up a little bit over the L15) are also cheap on DK.  

Second Base

Jose Altuve (HOU) has been on a tear for over a month now, but the price tag is up to $5,700 on DK. He’s worth the investment in tournaments, though from a point per dollar perspective he’s more appealing on FD. If using the Gray route in cash games on that site, it’s possible to get up to Altuve in cash games.

Jonathan Villar (MIL) is priced below the average cost of a hitter on both sites and he rates as our best value at the position. Against Edwin Jackson, this is an easy decision for us from a cash game perspective. Villar’s weakness is striking out at a high rate, but Jackson doesn’t miss bats.

Rougned Odor (TEX) rates as a fine alternative on DK where he’s $3,700, but we prefer him in tournaments given the lineup spot difference (fifth for Odor vs. leadoff for Villar on the road). Odor’s power upside when he has the platoon edge is massive for a middle infielder (we have a .240 ISO for him vs. RHP).

Daniel Murphy (WSH) and Ian Kinsler (DET) (on DK) are other names to consider in tournaments.

Third Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) carries third base eligibility around the industry and he’s the top projected scorer at the position. Freeman is underpriced on FD where he’s just $3,600. He’ll have the platoon edge against Taijuan Walker, who’s surrendered a .195 ISO to LHBs since 2015. Freeman is accessible no matter the route you take at SP on FD.

Manny Machado (BAL) used to be underpriced when he was hovering around $4,000 on DK. Well he’s now $3,300. The context isn’t appealing (in the Trop facing Jacob Faria), but he’s priced as if he was facing Clayton Kershaw. Machado is having a down year for his standards, but the luck stats are dragging his production down and he still has 18 HRs this season (.197 ISO).

The cash game alternatives on DK are paying a little more for Adrian Beltre (TEX) who’s in the best hitting environment in this slate or punting the position with Matt Chapman (OAK), which isn’t a necessary route in cash games. On FD, Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Machado are the best alternatives but we’d like to get to Freeman on that site.

Jake Lamb (ARI) and Travis Shaw (MIL) are elite tournament targets in great contexts. Lamb, has the platoon edge in Chase Field vs. Mike Foltynewicz (.367 wOBA, .214 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2015) while Shaw is facing arguably the worst SP in this slate (Edwin Jackson).

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (CLE) is a worthwhile target in cash games on FD if paying up at the position. Lindor carries the top projection at the shortstop position and it’s easy to have access to him if going the Gray route at SP on that site.

If you’re not paying up for Lindor, the next best route is simply saving salary at the position. This is the recommended route on DK, where Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS) are sub $4,000. Cabrera has the better matchup against Jhoulys Chacin, who’s surrendered a .343 wOBA and .186 ISO to LHBs since 2015. You want to confirm that Bogaerts is in the lineup before deploying him as he was scratched from the lineup last night.

On FD, Elvis Andrus (TEX) and Marcus Semien (OAK) come at cheaper price tags than Lindor and they’re in great hitting environments.

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) carries the top projection in the OF, followed by Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) who’s in Texas with the platoon edge. Trout is facing Mike Clevinger, who’s pitched well this season and misses bats. However, there’s no denying that Clevinger has benefited from some good fortune. Clevinger has a 2.73 ERA/4.18 xFIP, and he’s not much of a GB pitcher (39% GB rate). His hard minus soft hit rate is right around 17%. Trout’s price tag is high, but very reachable on DK. Stanton gets the platoon edge, and any time that happens the projection gets hefty thanks to a .418 wOBA and .349 ISO baseline vs. LHP. Stanton has been on a roll as well, posting a 37.5% HHR post ASB and he hit another HR last night (make that two). Pricing on DK is so soft that both of these OFs can be paired up in any format of your choosing.

On FD, Josh Reddick (HOU) remains vastly underpriced as he’ll carry the platoon edge in a good hitting environment for just $2,900. Bradley Zimmer (CLE) is another strong source of salary relief on that site. Zimmer is $2,500 on that site which is a great price tag for a hitter that carries some event upside. A little bit down the list of preferred values is Matt Holliday (NYY), who’s another sub $3,000 target on that site. Holliday has been very cold lately, and it’s not necessary to take three cheap targets in the OF on FD. It’s a fine route if you wanted to pay up for a C or SS but that’s not the optimal route.

Eric Thames (MIL) carries OF eligibility on DK, where he rates as a lock. There’s no need to play another cheap OF on DK outside of Thames. It’s possible to play Ryan Braun (MIL) next to Trout and Stanton without making any sacrifices at SP or elsewhere. Bryce Harper (WSH) is a bit more out of reach given the $5,600 price tag, but if you’re willing to play a cheaper SP1 than Bumgarner on that site it’s possible to include him in your cash game plans. Nomar Mazara (TEX) is just $3,200 with the platoon edge on DK. He’s viable if playing expensive SPs or if paying up at C on that site.  

Stacks

Tier One

1) Houston Astros

The Astros rate well above the other teams but injuries (George Springer leaving early last night) could bring them closer to the pack. We’ve noted Nick Pivetta‘s struggles with fly balls and hard contact which have resulted in over two home runs per nine innings. With the cheap pitching available, the Astros will be far chalkier than they have been in recent slates.

Tier Two

2) Milwaukee Brewers

3) Cleveland Indians

4) Texas Rangers

5) Washington Nationals

6) Arizona Diamondbacks

7) Los Angeles Dodgers

8) New York Yankees

The second tier is congested with the Brewers getting an intriguing matchup against Edwin Jackson. The team total isn’t as high as many of the other options on the slate but their combination of power and speed upside plus a guaranteed ninth inning (many of the elite offenses on this slate are at home) makes them one of the more intriguing stacks. Once again, Texas and Miami should be popular on this slate. It’s warm again in Texas and both pitchers are vulnerable to fly balls and thus power. We expect ownership to pivot a bit on this slate which should make both offenses a bit more palatable in GPPs.