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July 27 MLB DFS Late Slate: Yu Got To Play Darvish
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July 27 MLB DFS Late Slate: Yu Got To Play Darvish

0:40 Starting Pitchers
10:34 Catchers
11:53 First Base
14:50 Second Base
17:11 Shortstop
20:28 Third Base
23:27 Outfield
29:09 Cash Game Roster Construction & Stacks

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JULY 27 MLB LATE SLATE DFS PRO TIP

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Yu Darvish (TEX)

2) Adam Wainwright (STL)

Tier Two

3) Lance McCullers (HOU)

4) Matt Shoemaker (LAA)

5) Gerrit Cole (PIT)

Tier Three

6) Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)

7) Danny Duffy (KC)

Yu Darvish (TEX) and Adam Wainwright (STL) rate very closely in our model, with the only true difference being run prevention/innings pitched vs. strikeouts. Darvish has to deal with a terrible pitching environment (Texas is very hot during the summertime), a difficult matchup for strikeouts (Oakland is only striking out 18 percent of the time vs. RHP) and an implied run total against a little over four runs, but he also carries the highest strikeout projection in our model (29 percent – his strikeout rate this season is 35.5 percent). Wainwright comes with less run prevention risk (3.8 implied run total against) and he pitches deeper into games, but his strikeout projection isn’t as significant (projected for a 22 percent K rate tonight). There’s no real gap in pricing between these two pitchers, and as a result our current lean is relying on Darvish’s strikeouts in cash games.

Gerrit Cole (PIT) is our favorite complement to one of Darvish or Wainwright in cash games on DraftKings. Cole is facing a Mariners offense that’s ranked second in wRC+ vs. RHP, but they get a downgrade in environment (PNC Park is one of the best pitching environments in all of baseball) and they’re losing the DH in the National League. Cole is a solid pitcher (around a league average K rate, hard minus soft hit rate is under 10 percent this season and carries a 3.15 ROS ERA), gets the benefit of pitching at home, where he’s favored (Pirates are -150 favorites tonight) and he’s cheap on DraftKings ($8,100). You could argue that Lance McCullers (HOU) is the second most talented pitcher in this slate, and even though we don’t like his matchup for strikeout purposes (Yankees are only striking out 18.9 percent vs. RHP), his own strikeout rate is sitting at 29 percent this season and his implied run total against is just over 3.5 runs. We think McCullers is cash viable, but he’s priced correctly around the industry and that could result in depressed ownership in tournaments. Matt Shoemaker (KC) struck us as underpriced on FanDuel at just $8,500 (most of his dominance has come at home this season and he’ll be on the road tonight, but he draws a matchup against a Royals offense that’s struggling this season). Danny Duffy (KC) has a difficult matchup against an Angels offense that refuses to strikeout vs. LHP, but an $8,900 price tag on DraftKings is too cheap for the breakout season he’s enjoying. We like him in tournaments on that site. If you want to load up on offense in tournaments, Dylan Bundy (BAL) is just $4,000 on DraftKings (won’t go deep into games but viable since he’s so cheap).

Catcher Rankings

1) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

2) Willson Contreras (CHC)

3) Welington Castillo (ARI)

The catcher position is one we’re filling out last tonight. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) and Willson Contreras (CHC) are the only catchers that are close to breaking positive value around the industry in our beta model, but both are priced correctly everywhere. We wouldn’t deviate away from those two on FanDuel where it’s easy to pay those fair prices. Matt Wieters (BAL) and Salvador Perez (KC) are viable on DraftKings.

First Base Rankings

1) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

2) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

3) Chris Davis (BAL)

4) Freddie Freeman (ATL)

5) Chris Carter (MIL)

Anthony Rizzo (CHC) and Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) rank inside our top three hitters in our model this evening, but if we had to choose one over the other, we’d take Rizzo who has a friendlier matchup vs. Anthony Ranaudo (projected 5.41 ROS ERA – he doesn’t miss bats and has allowed 2.01 HR/9 in his career). Goldy is a bit cheaper around the industry, and despite a difficult splits matchup vs. Jimmy Nelson (.286 wOBA, .092 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015), he’s our third ranked hitter this evening. We consider him a viable pivot off Rizzo in all formats. Chris Davis (BAL) and Chris Carter (MIL) have been slumping lately (Davis has a ridiculous -1.7 change in our well-hit too over the last two weeks, Carter is at -0.6), but if you’re going value shopping they represent our best values (especially Davis, who’s the top value at the position on both sites).

Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve (HOU)

2) Ben Zobrist (CHC)

3) Brian Dozier (MIN)

4) Scooter Gennett (MIL)

5) Jean Segura (ARI)

The second base position is appropriately priced on DraftKings, where it’s tougher to pinpoint a particular value we love in cash games. That’s not the case on FanDuel, where Jurickson Profar (TEX) is nearly minimum priced ($2,300). Profar should hit second for a Texas offense that has an implied team total of 5.3 runs in Arlington (we love this environment during the summertime where it really heats up). This is another position we’d look to fill out last on DraftKings, but we’d keep exposure to Ben Zobrist (CHC) (cold lately but love the matchup vs. Anthony Ranaudo), Brian Dozier (MIN), Scooter Gennett (MIL) or Profar.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL) – where eligible

2) Jonathan Villar (MIL)

3) Eduardo Nunez (MIN)

4) Carlos Correa (HOU)

5) Aledmys Diaz (STL)

Jonathan Gray is the Rockies ace, but his implied team total against has settled a little over five runs tonight as he takes on a powerful Baltimore Orioles offense on the road. We know Manny Machado (BAL) has been cold lately (-0.6 change over the last two weeks in our well-hit tool), but at just $3,500 on DraftKings, he’s at least $1,000 underpriced on that site. If you don’t want to deal with a cold hitter, there are alternatives. Eduardo Nunez (MIN) is also underpriced on DraftKings (just $3,600 and he’s been an awesome event player this season – up to 12 home runs and 26 stolen bases this season) and Aledmys Diaz (STL) is cheap on FanDuel ($2,700 is too cheap for a hitter that’s generated a .386 wOBA and .218 ISO vs. RHP, isn’t dealing with a cold streak and has a good matchup).

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL) – where eligible

2) Kris Bryant (CHC)

3) Eduardo Nunez (MIN) – where eligible

4) Nolan Arenado (COL)

5) Miguel Sano (MIN) – where eligible

We’re sticking with Manny Machado (BAL) on FanDuel where he’s also a bit underpriced ($3,900), with his alternative being Adrian Beltre (TEX) on that site. You can also play Machado or Eduardo Nunez (MIN) on DraftKings, with Miguel Sano (MIN) joining the conversation as well (just $3,800 on that site and has a great matchup for his power stroke – Mike Foltynewicz has allowed a 1.75 HR/9 this season). Kris Bryant (CHC) didn’t take advantage of a good matchup vs. James Shields last night (struck out three times), but he draws another plus matchup vs. Anthony Ranaudo (he’s faced 111 RHBs since 2014 and has allowed a .402 wOBA/.283 ISO). Bryant is better for tournaments on FanDuel where his price is high but he’s viable in cash games on DraftKings (below $5,000 on that site).

Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout (LAA)

2) Ryan Braun (MIL)

3) Kris Bryant (CHC) – where eligible

4) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

5) Ian Desmond (TEX)

6) Dexter Fowler (CHC)

7) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

8) Adam Jones (BAL)

9) Miguel Sano (MIN)

10) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

Mike Trout (LAA) is our second overall hitter this evening, and despite the difficult matchup vs. Danny Duffy he rates as a great value around the industry. However, paying for Trout in a tough matchup isn’t necessary in cash games. Miguel Sano (MIN) is a great industry wide value (underpriced on both sites), and while Delino DeShields (TEX) doesn’t crack our list of top 10 ranked outfielders, he’s not far behind (leadoff hitter for the Rangers – note that on FanDuel he’s a free square at just $2,300). Sano’s teammate, Robbie Grossman (MIN), is another good value on both sites (Foltynewicz has allowed a .388 wOBA and a hefty .275 ISO to LHBs since 2015). Adam Jones (BAL) remains ridiculously underpriced on DraftKings ($3,400 on that site, he’s the top OF value there) and Dexter Fowler (CHC) is a great value on FanDuel (below $3,500 and will hit leadoff for a Cubs offense that let us down last night, but get an even better matchup tonight). In tournaments, we like Ian Desmond (TEX) (.390 wOBA, .209 ISO vs. LHP over his last 200 PAs) Max Kepler (MIN) (.258 ISO this season – backed up by a 40.6 FB rate and a 40 percent hard hit rate) and Kirk Nieuwenhuis (MIL) (+0.4 change in our well-hit tool over the last two weeks and draws a matchup against Archie Bradley – he’s allowed a .346 wOBA and .176 ISO to LHBs since 2015).

Stack Rankings

Tier One

1) Chicago Cubs

2) Texas Rangers

3) Baltimore Orioles

Tier Two

4) Milwaukee Brewers

5) Minnesota Twins

All of our ranked offenses have implied team totals of at least five runs. We’re taking a guess on the Cubs team total (we don’t get lines for their home games the night before), but we’re pretty confident that it’ll land somewhere over five runs vs. Anthony Ranaudo. With the Cubs being expensive pretty much everywhere, we’re emphasizing more of a value approach (you can find value with any of our ranked offenses above) at each position instead of forcing exposure to a single team in cash games.

Tournament Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers/Minnesota Twins – These two offenses represent our tier two above, but they generally don’t come with high ownership vs. RHP. Both of these offenses are below average vs. RHP, but some of their components have some power/speed upside that’s always in play in tournaments when the matchups are favorable.

Colorado Rockies – We wouldn’t full stack the Rockies in tournaments but a mini-stack is fine against Dylan Bundy, who hasn’t lived up to the hype just yet. Bundy has posted a 3.30 ERA this season, but his xFIP is way higher (4.87) and the strikeouts have been slightly below league average (20 percent K rate). We’re expecting low ownership here for a Rockies team that’s outside of Coors Field.

MLB Daily Analysis

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