Welcome to July 27 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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July 27 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:50 Starting Pitcher
11:08 First Base
13:24 Second Base
16:51 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
July 27 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
On a very small slate (five games) it’s an interesting starting pitcher conversation. Chris Archer (TB) is our top projected pitcher and clearly the most skilled (or at least most dominating) starting pitcher on the slate. Archer has been particularly strong recently, striking out at least eight batters in four straight, totaling 36 Ks over that span. The big issue here is a negative park shift playing in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are a decent matchup for strikeouts, but there is run prevention risk here (second in wRC+ against RHP).
With that in mind, Zack Godley (ARI) may actually carry more value. He’s in more pleasant pitching environment in St. Louis, facing a worse offense (still a slightly below matchup for fantasy purposes). Godley has been solid all season long (3.20 xFIP), but he’s ratcheted up the Ks recently, striking out at least six in each of his six starts, averaging eight over that span. When you couple that with a 55.8 GB rate on the season, the skills impress. We’re more confident in Archer, but the significant price discount on a short slate where you’ll want to stack Cubs in cash games makes him a fine target in all formats.
Jon Lester (CHC) is a heavy favorite on the slate (-240) coming off two straight strong outings, but the negative park and league shift against a plus White Sox offense when facing LHP means he’s overpriced. We prefer Archer for raw total points and Godley for value.
One interesting name to keep an eye on outside of the top three starting pitchers on the slate is Chris Flexen (NYM). We don’t know a whole ton about Flexen. He had TJS in 2014 and a knee injury prior to the start of this year, but has pitched well quickly ascending from high A to AA and now to MLB. According to this article he has a sinking fastball that tops out at 95 mph: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/chris-flexen-makes-jump-from-double-a-will-be-on-mound-for-mets-1.13839557?utm_content=bufferb4abc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer. Flexen’s peripherals in the Minors have been great – high K and GB rates and a low BB rate. His 1.66 AA ERA is supported by a 2.43 xFIP, and Flexen averaged 7 IP per start. It’s tough to tell what MB success he will have, but average run prevention with an above average K rate is enough to make him a strong value against the Padres (27th in wRC+ against RHP, highest K%) in San Diego. The 4.2 IRTA is as low as any SP faces on this short slate.
Luke Weaver (STL) and Robert Stephenson (CIN) have enough K upside to be used in tournaments at cheap prices, although both (especially Stephenson) are fine as full fades if you’d rather differentiate elsewhere.
On a five game slate where 8 of 10 teams have an IRT between 4.1 and 4.4, you’re going to see a heck of a lot of Cubs (6.4) in the analysis. That starts right at the catcher position where Willson Contreras (CHC) is one of our best values on both sites. He has a positive 15-day Hard% delta and gets the nice park shift/added DH for the lineup playing on the north side. Mike Pelfrey has been better versus RHBs, but this is a situation to get exposure to wherever you can, especially if Contreras is in the cleanup spot.
On both sites, Wilson Ramos (TB) is a top two value. Ironically, he’s a worse value in a vacuum on FD but the tighter pricing and four Cub limit makes him more useful there. Ramos will have the platoon edge on CC Sabathia in Yankee Stadium. Sabathia has allowed a .336 wOBA and .158 ISO to RHBs since 2015.
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) rates as a cash game lock on both sites. Since 2015 Mike Pelfrey has allowed a .376 wOBA and .161 ISO to LHBs. Rizzo’s “down” year is due to bad luck (.236 BABIP). He’s been just as powerful as ever (.250 ISO) and is striking out a career low 11.7% of the time.
Beyond Rizzo we have a slew of positive values all tightly clustered. From a pure game theory standpoint, Joey Votto (CIN) is interesting as he’ll carry single digit ownership percentage because of a L/L matchup in a good pitching environment. Lucas Duda (NYM) and Jose Abreu (CHW) lead all first basement in 15-day Hard% and each hold the platoon edge in their respective matchups.
The other team that deviates from the cluster of IRTs in the low 4s is the Miami Marlins, and leadoff hitter Dee Gordon (MIA) is a nice play to get you access to the Marlins offense in a logical spot to diversify off of the Cubs. Gordon faes Robert Stephenson, who has a 8.10 ERA and 6.71 FIP despite roughly 25 of his 30 IP coming out of the bullpen. The wild Stephenson (ZiPS projects 6.02 BB/9) is a nice matchup for the speedster Gordon where one free pass could turn into value immediately.
If you can’t afford Gordon, Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is a solid mid-tier value on both sites. Luis Perdomo has struggled mightily with LHBs over his short career (.371 wOBA) as he yields hard hit contact and fails to miss bats.
On FD it’s reasonable to punt the position completely, and Trevor Plouffe (TB) allows you to do that while still squeezing in some power upside.
Much like Rizzo at 1B, Kris Bryant (CHC) at 3B sticks out as a core cash game play. The one concern here is a poor 15-day Hard%. If you were to deviate as a result of that, Evan Longoria (TB) is likely the play. Aside from a positive 15-day Hard% delta and good context (platoon edge, park upgrade), Longoria has historically dominated Sabathia.
Jake Lamb (ARI) is a nice pivot play off Bryant if you want to stick in that price range for tournaments. In a very small sample size at the MLB level opposing pitcher Luke Weaver has struggled to keep the ball in the park.
The cash game shortstop options are site specific, but the macro strategy is the same – save some money. Despite facing one of the better pitchers on the slate, Tim Anderson (CHW) is too cheap, depending where we see him in the lineup. Keep in mind that Jon Lester is horrible at holding runners on. If Anderson doesn’t get the lineup spot we hope, there are a few options. You can directly pivot to guys like Jose Peraza (CIN) or Tim Beckham (TB) against below average LHPs, or inch your way up to a better overall hitter like Chris Owings (ARI) (breakout power supported by better quality of contact and more fly balls).
On FD, you can punt with either Peraza or teammate Zack Cozart (CIN) (more expensive but a much better raw total play) if he’s able to return to action. Opposing pitcher Chris O’Grady is a southpaw who we’ve given a .335 wOBA allowed baseline against RHBs.
Addison Russell (CHC) is actually the top projected FD value at SS, but this isn’t a good spot in cash games to use one of your four allotted Cubs.
The clear cut top two stacks are the Cubs and the Marlins, and our outfield cash game values are in line with that. On both sites we like the Jason Heyward/Kyle Schwarber (CHC) pairing and the Christian Yelich/Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) pairing. Stanton has been on fire since the break, putting up a 40% hard hit rate, which doesn’t yet include another stellar outing last night. Of this group, though, Schwarber tops our value rankings. He’ll be a high risk/reward guy with a low BA, but we’re expecting him to turn on the power.
The best pivots off of CHC/MIA outfields is to look at the Mets, specifically Michael Conforto (NYM) and Jay Bruce (NYM), two dangerous hitters versus RHP facing Luis Perdomo and his aforementioned issues with LHBs.
One off tournament options need to have power, and you’ll get that with Aaron Judge (NYY) (matchup should keep him surprisingly low owned for such a small slate) and Adam Duvall (CIN) (.244 ISO against LHP since 2015).
1) Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are going to be mega chalk in tournaments. If you’re making a single entry, it makes sense to fade them simply based off baseball variance. Another option is to utilize a bottom of the order stack that won’t be as popular.
2) Miami Marlins
3) New York Mets
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Tampa Bay Rays
6) Cincinnati Reds
There’s such a big gap after the Cubs and Marlins that really any other team outside of those two should have low ownership, or at least much closer ownership to the pack than to Cubs/Marlins. Our favorite here is the Mets. Again, Perdomo in his short career has shown a complete inability to get LHBs out, and the Mets have the requisite power upside for tournaments, especially now that they are healthier (fifth in ISO in that split despite park/injuries).