Daily Fantasy Rundown – July 27 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Another quiet day. Low risks in BOS, BLT and STL with BOS the place most likely to see a delay (still do not see it as a big problem though).
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Buster Posey (SF) – Posey is pretty much the default top play at a weak catcher position tonight. He doesn’t hold the platoon edge and is at home (terrible pitcher’s park), but his overall skills (1.09 EYE as he’s cut his K rate down at no expense to power) trump his peers. It’s also a somewhat friendly matchup despite being same handed as Kyle Lohse has struggled this season (6.29 ERA, 5.01 FIP) as a dip in GB rate and rise in hard hit rate has finally made his low K rate intolerable. Still, Posey’s likely not worth paying up for in cash games on sites like FanDuel where he’s expensive and there’s a large gap between him and the punts. He’s more viable on DraftKings (where he’s actually the same price as he is on FanDuel, which is rare).
Matt Wieters (BAL) – Wieters was scratched yesterday due to a stiff back but is expected back in the lineup today. Wieters has been a wreck at the plate from a plate discipline standpoint (.16 EYE, career mark is .45). As a result, we’ve been a bit more selective in using him after relying on him too heavily when he was first activated off of the DL. Today, is a spot where he’s worth the risk. First off, his price has bottomed out. At $2,300 on FanDuel and $2,600 on DraftKings, you’d pretty much take a catcher regardless of skills who had the platoon edge, top five lineup spot and a favorable hitter’s park, which Wieters does. Secondly, the opportunity cost is almost nothing on today’s nine game slate. The catcher position is about as weak as I remember it. Finally, Wieters is not without upside despite the problems he’s had. He projects to be one of the more powerful hitting catchers, and his hard hit rate of 35.4 percent is fine. Wieters simply needs to be a bit more selective at the plate so he can cut down on the Ks and elevate the pitches he is swinging at.