Daily Fantasy Rundown – July 28 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: As of writing this, I see very little chance of a delay anywhere. Hot weather in TEX and STL may help hitters but it is rather extreme heat.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Russell Martin (TOR) – Russell Martin represents the first of many Blue Jays covered in today’s content. The Blue Jays are the best offense in the league against LHP (130 wRC+, .362 wOBA) and they’re at home against a below average lefty in Adam Morgan. Morgan has allowed a .388 wOBA and 2.21 HR/9 to RHBs in his brief major league time. The Phillies bullpen behind him isn’t particularly adept and thus the Blue Jays have a team total approaching 5.5 runs. Martin generally hits fifth or sixth but we’ll see how the new lineup shakes out with Troy Tulowitzki in and Jose Reyes out. Martin has hit LHP very well in recent years (.346 wOBA, .176 ISO since 2012) and unsurprisingly he’s been even better in a much better hitter’s environment this season (.405 wOBA, .226 ISO against LHP). He ranks inside our Top 15 overall hitters at a very thin position. With a relatively affordable price point, he’s your top target at the position across the industry.
Additional catcher notes: The drop off at the position is really substantial. If you’re not investing in Martin, we suggest using the position for salary relief and finding a punt option. Matt Wieters (BAL) is underpriced for his historical skill set. We’ve always liked him better from the right side (against left handed pitching) but a matchup against Julio Teheran (.338 wOBA, 1.22 HR/9 to LHBs since 2013) in Camden Yards is a fine one to attack. He’s your best option among the potential punt plays. Tyler Flowers (CHW) is next in our model as he gets Wade Miley (.329 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2013) in a favorable park for RH power. He hits low in the order, but as a pure source of salary relief it’s acceptable at a position where opportunity cost is very low.
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) – Encarnacion owns a .390 wOBA and .255 ISO against LHP since 2012 and gets that favorable matchup with Adam Morgan we’re looking to exploit wherever we can. Edwin hasn’t dominated LHP this season like we’ve expected him to (.335 wOBA, .121 ISO) but the peripherals suggest it’s a bit fluky. Encarnacion has posted a 36.5 percent hard hit rate and 40.4 percent FB Rate against lefties but earned a puny .121 ISO thanks to just 9.5 percent of his fly balls leaving the yard. We expect his power to show up over the rest of the season against LHP and will gladly take any discount the current production brings in price tag. He ranks inside our Top Five overall hitters and is our top option at first base.
Jose Abreu (CHW) – Jose Abreu doesn’t rank far behind Edwin in our model (inside our Top 10) and on some sites he comes with a severely depressed price point ($3,200 on FanDuel). He’s been incredible against LHP in his brief big league career (.417 wOBA, .252 ISO) and gets the benefit of facing Wade Miley (.329 wOBA, 1.00 HR/9 to RHBs since 2013) in Fenway Park (inflates home runs 2-4 percent above the league average for RHBs). If Encarnacion is too expensive, Abreu is your next target.
Additional first base notes: David Ortiz (BOS) is finally seeing a price bump around the industry and he’s starting to get valued more appropriately. He also ranks inside our Top 10 hitters overall but will likely cost more than either Abreu or Edwin on the site you’re playing on. As a result, he’s more of a secondary value play or strong tournament option in our opinion. Anthony Rizzo (CHC) has seen his price steadily decline with an extended slump. He’s handled LHP really well in recent years (.411 wOBA, .175 ISO since 2014) and the Cubs lineup as a whole projects better against LHP. He’s a strong tournament play. Julio Teheran has always been vulnerable to LH power (1.22 HR/9 allowed since 2012) and Chris Davis (BAL) gets to face him in Camden Yards. While Davis ranks outside our Top 20 hitters overall, he has one of the highest home run scores in our model. Mark Teixeira (NYY) is the other strong tournament target around the industry. He’s a part of a high powered Yankees offense in a great hitting environment and he’s historically hit LHP well (.345 wOBA, .208 ISO since 2012). The price is up around the industry but Teixeira is a fine piece to attack as a part of Yankees stacks or mini-stacks.
Jose Altuve (HOU) – He’s usually your top option when facing a LHP. C.J. Wilson is an above average lefty and Altuve is very expensive, so we consider him a better tournament play. Second base is a good place to search for salary relief in order to emphasize top end Toronto bats at other positions in your cash game lineups.
Neil Walker (PIT) – Walker rates as our next best option after Altuve. He’s hit RHP exceptionally well for a second base eligible player (.353 wOBA, .194 ISO since 2012) and gets to face a below average righty in Mike Pelfrey. The park shift is neutral for LHBs but the overall scoring environment is a boost for Walker (replacing pitcher with a DH). The key for his value will be the lineup spot. He mysteriously hit sixth on Sunday against a RHP and if he’s that low again, we’d remove him from cash game consideration. We’re hoping he’ll hit second where he’s spent most of the season.
Kolten Wong (STL) – Wong is more assured of a premier lineup spot and faces a slightly better overall righty but one that is more vulnerable to LHBs. Mike Leake has allowed a .331 wOBA and 1.09 HR/9 to LHBs since 2013. Leake is getting a nice park shift but it’s still a good matchup for Wong who has posted a .363 wOBA and .194 ISO against RHP this season. Throw in an almost all righty bullpen behind Leake and Wong is most assured of holding his value deep into the game.
Additional second base notes: Second base is really thin on Tuesday so we’ll lighten our standards up on lineup spots and focus on salary relief options with a good chance of success in their limited plate appearances. Addison Russell (CHC) is one of the first names that comes to mind. He hits ninth which isn’t great for maximizing opportunities but Yohan Flande and the Rockies bullpen project well below average and Russell’s very cheap. Devon Travis (TOR) isn’t particularly cheap but he does get that great matchup with Adam Morgan. The challenge is opportunity cost as rostering Travis may limit your chances at getting other Blue Jays in premier lineup spots into your lineups. If Travis is bumped into the leadoff spot (something we’ve seen without Reyes around in the past), he’d jump to the front of our second base rankings and represent one of our top targets. Second base is also a position we’ll look to cover in lineup alerts with any potential punt plays that emerge.
Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) – Tulowitzki ranks as a Top Five hitter in our model in a favorable matchup against Adam Morgan. Tulowitzki owns a .422 wOBA and .253 ISO against LHP since 2012 and if you just want to focus on his road statistics he’s posted a career .373 wOBA and .233 ISO against LHP on the road. Shortstop is exceptionally thin this evening so if Tulowitzki is an option, it makes sense to spend on him. The questions surrounding Tulo are: 1) whether he’ll arrive on time and make it into the lineup and 2) whether his points will count on the site you’re playing on. DraftKings has already confirmed Tulowitzki (and Jose Reyes) will not earn points this evening (he has a different game start time than Toronto in the player pool so late-swap causes a problem). We’ve reached out to other sites and are awaiting confirmation.
Update on Tulowitzki/Reyes status:
DraftKings – points will NOT count
FanDuel – points WILL count
DraftDay – points WILL count
Fantasy Aces – points WILL count
Victiv – points WILL count
Yahoo – points WILL count
Fantasy Draft – points WILL count
Star Fantasy Leagues – points WILL count
Update on Tulowitzki’s availability:
AA on when Tulowitzki will play for @BlueJays- “We expect Troy to arrive in tonight and we will get him in there tomorrow”
Additional shortstop notes: Shortstop (like second base) is barren. If Jose Reyes (COL) is able to play, he’d replace Tulowitzki as our top option on sites that include his scoring. The guys who rate best in our model all come with terrible lineup spots, so we’ll be on the lookout for options in our lineup alerts to help differentiate. It’s very possible you may have to just punt and accept a below average lineup spot in favor of a good matchup. If that is the case, our model likes: Alexei Ramirez (CHW), Starlin Castro (CHC), and Elvis Andrus (TEX) most. On DraftKings, Tyler Saladino (CHW) comes with a punt price tag, a favorable lineup spot, and the platoon advantage. He is our favorite value play on that site, but doesn’t carry the SS eligibility or that price tag on all sites. Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) has hit lefties well this season (.367 wOBA, .190 ISO) but historically he’s been quite poor (.287 wOBA, .107 ISO since 2012). He does get a good lineup spot (typically second against LHP) but C.J. Wilson is a pretty good lefty and Marwin’s price is a touch above the minimum. My lean is I’d currently prefer the salary relief than the good lineup spot given I’m not a big buyer on Gonzalez’s skills.
Josh Donaldson (TOR) – Donaldson owns a rather absurd .301 ISO and .416 wOBA against LHP since 2012 and unsurprisingly (like Martin) his performance has improved this year (.441 wOBA, .325 ISO against LHP) in a better hitting environment in Toronto. He’s a Top Five overall hitter but with a hefty price tag and a loaded third base position, I don’t think he’s a must for cash games.
Next in line:
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) – Rodriguez’s incredible 2015 season continued with another home run last night. Since 2013, he’s compiled a .381 wOBA and .234 ISO against LHP and this season he’s up to a ridiculous .430 wOBA and .363 ISO against LHP. Conditions are great for hitting with the heat in Texas and he’ll face Martin Perez who has historically been below average against RHBs (.328 wOBA allowed). Rodriguez’s salary is very high and with a strong option below him and above him, I think he’ll got a bit under-owned this evening. He’s a really strong tournament option.
Kris Bryant (CHC) – If you’re looking to save a few bucks and have some big upside at the third base position, Bryant is your target. He’s quietly crushed LHP (.366 wOBA, .246 ISO) in his first 80 big league plate appearances against lefties and that is actually slightly below ZiPS projections for him against LHP (.377 wOBA, .251 ISO). Flande has allowed a .335 wOBA to RHBs in a limited big league sample and projects worse (.366 wOBA, .180 ISO allowed is ZiPS projection against RHBs). In addition this game should give Bryant chances against a thin and very left-handed Rockies bullpen. His price is down relative to the other top options at the position but he cracks our Top 15 overall hitters. He’s a nice bargain.
Danny Valencia (TOR) – With Tulowitzki unlikely to play its possible Valencia slides up into a premium lineup spot. He’s hit LHP very well in his career (.368 wOBA, .183 ISO since 2012) and the Blue Jays are our primary target in cash games this evening. Given the depth of third base, I’d only consider this recommendation good if Valencia hits inside the Top Five. He cracks our Top 40 hitters overall.
Additional third base notes: Our model really likes the Pirates offense tonight so Aramis Ramirez (PIT) where priced down is a viable salary cap relief alternative. Mike Pelfrey has actually struggled more with righties in his career (.365 wOBA allowed since 2013) but it oddly comes with no power (0.67 HR/9) and very limited hard contact (23 percent) so I’m less likely to pick on it in cash games (driven by a .362 BABIP). Whereas many Pirates are pricey, Ramirez is pretty cheap. Our model also loves Adrian Beltre (TEX) but the lingering thumb issue coupled with down results and indicators makes me less likely to invest in cash games. The matchup with Capuano is a good one in the heat of Texas, but I’d prefer a more heavily discounted price tag from the options above if I were investing.
Jose Bautista (TOR) – Bautista is our top ranked hitter overall and possess the highest home run score in our model. Bautista is great against lefties (.389 wOBA, .250 ISO since 2012) but his ability to hold his value against righties (.382 wOBA, .254 ISO since 2012) is what pushes him ahead of Donaldson in our model as we take into account likelihood of bullpen plate appearances. The price tag is steep and outfield is always deep with options, so he’s not a must play by any means but he is our top overall hitter and someone you should make an effort to squeeze in if you can.
Next in line: Mike Trout (LAA) and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) are the next two highest rated outfielders in our model
Corey Dickerson/Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Both Rockies LHBs get a plus matchup against Dallas Beeler who has been tattooed by LHBs in a brief major league sample (.440 wOBA, 42.9 percent hard hit rate). ZiPS projection systems thinks he’ll be below average (.338 wOBA, .140 ISO projected) against LHBs but not horrific. However, LHBs have touched him up in the minors this season (.936 OPS allowed) and these particular LHBs are very good against RHP. Certainly the performance is influenced by Coors Field but Gonzalez (.401 wOBA, .274 ISO) and Dickerson (.393 wOBA, .252 ISO) have manhandled RHP since 2012. With Tulowitzki out of the lineup and Reyes a question mark tonight, we’ll likely see both players get premier lineup spots. On sites where they’re priced similarly, I believe Gonzalez is the better play while Dickerson is my preferred target on sites with a price discount. Both hitters rank inside our Top 20 overall.
Chris Colabello (TOR) – He’ll likely come with a premier spot in the lineup and he’s crushed lefties this year (.416 wOBA, .255 ISO). Historically he hasn’t been as strong (.310 wOBA, .145 ISO) but the price tag allows you to take a shot on this year’s performance holding up; especially if it comes with a premier lineup spot.
Cubs outfielders – Our model does not think much of Yohan Flande and the Cubs have three outfielders who project as above average hitters against LHP. ZiPS projection system called for Dexter Fowler (.357 wOBA, .134 ISO), Chris Denorfia (.320 wOBA, .118 ISO), and Jorge Soler (.346 wOBA, .228 ISO) to each represent solid options against LHP. They all come with affordable price tags and likely premier lineup spots for an offense with an implied run total over 4.5 runs. I think the salary relief aspect is really important and allows you to add more Jays into your cash game lineups, so I find myself prioritizing based on price. Fowler and Soler crack our Top 30 hitters while Denorfia is inside our Top 60.
Chris Young (NYY) – Young has historically hit LHP very well (.340 wOBA, .206 ISO since 2013) and gets to face Martin Perez in Arlington. The price tag varies around the industry ($3,100 is cheap on DraftKings while $2,900 is fair on FanDuel) so make sure to evaluate that tag but the matchup is strong. The Yankees have a run total approaching five and Young typically gets a strong lineup spot. As long as he continues to hit in the Top Five (ideally second), he’ll rank as one of the better values in our model.
Avisail Garcia (CHW) – The White Sox offense is a friendly spot tonight against Wade Miley in Fenway Park. Garcia hasn’t destroyed LHP like we’d hoped coming into the season but a career .332 wOBA and .148 ISO is solid and his price tag is modest around the industry. He’s the bare minimum on FanDuel and cracks our Top 50 overall hitters. He’s another strong source of salary relief around the industry.
Additional outfield notes: I mentioned our model likes the Pirates quite a bit tonight against Mike Pelfrey. The challenge is the consistency of the price points. Gregory Polanco (PIT) is near the minimum on FanDuel but priced as an above average option on DraftKings. Starling Marte (PIT) and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) are pretty expensive everywhere. They’re better in tournament lineups but if you find a discount on the site you’re playing on, they’re viable in cash games. Hanley Ramirez‘s (BOS) price is down enough to consider him a fine value even in a matchup that isn’t ideal (Samardzija is really tough on RHBs).
Rankings (price not considered):
1) Jose Fernandez (MIA)
2a) Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
2b) David Price (DET)
4) James Shields (SD)
5) Sonny Gray (OAK)
6) Jaime Garcia (STL)
7) Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA)
8) Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)
9) Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL)
10) C.J. Wilson (LAA)
11) Matt Cain (SF)
12) Jake Odorizzi (TB)
Jose Fernandez (MIA) – The Nationals are in the midst of an extended streak against elite starting pitching, so it seems like we’re writing about their lack of offense often. The loss of Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span has really thinned out the lineup and forced below average hitters into premier lineup spots. Werth and Zimmerman are expected back today but even with those two back, Fernandez still rates as our top starter. Fernandez has shown no signs of rust in his return from Tommy John. These are all in very small samples but he’s held his K Rate and GB Rate while actually improving his swinging strike rate and his BB Rate. A modest favorite (-111) in a game with a total of just 6.5, Fernandez is our top ranked starter on Tuesday.
Next in line:
Noah Syndergaard (NYM) – David Price (DET) and Syndergaard rank almost identically in our model, but Syndergaard comes at a far cheaper cost around the industry and without any potential trade risk (something we have to consider over the next three days). The Padres rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP with an above average 22 percent K Rate. Syndergaard has been as advertised with the Mets. A 25 percent K Rate is well above average and he’s coupled it with good control (6.2 BB Rate) and a solid GB Rate (45.8 percent) while minimizing hard contact (just 24.4 percent). We project Syndergaard for the second highest K Rate of the day (over 28 percent) and view him as the most logical pairing or alternative to Jose Fernandez.
Value Plays – Cash games:
Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA)/Jordan Zimmermann (WAS)/Matt Cain (SF) – I see these three as the most viable options if emphasizing some semblance of salary relief with your second starting pitcher. All three are in plus pitching environments against offenses that rank in the bottom half in MLB against RHP in wRC+. The Diamondbacks (19th in wRC+, 21 percent K Rate), Brewers (22nd in wRC+, 20.5 percent K Rate), and Marlins (30th in wRC+, 20.2 percent K Rate) are all plus matchups. Iwakuma has historically been the most skilled of the group and thus ranks the highest in this tier but price discounts on Cain and Zimmermann could easily neutralize the gap in skill. Cain is the one that could jump the furthest. If Ryan Braun (sat last night) and Adam Lind (sat last two) remain out, Cain would jump even with Zimmermann in our rankings. If I’m dropping down among this group, I’m most likely emphasizing salary relief as the key driver in the selection.
Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL) – Jimemenz is coming off consecutive outings in which he allowed seven earned runs. On the season, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 19 starts but also delivered duds @NYM and @MIA along with the recent blowups @NYY and @DET. He’s very difficult to project but earns a favorable matchup against a Braves offense that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against RHP. The Braves don’t strikeout a lot which brings some risk to the table in an elite hitting environment but they possess just one above average bat (Freeman). Jimenez’s volatility paired with the Braves high contact ways keeps him out of cash game consideration in our opinion, but he represents our favorite tournament play.
Additional starting pitcher notes: C.J. Wilson (LAA) is a similarly volatile option to Ubaldo with more strikeout upside and a higher price point. The Astros offense is strong against LHP (11th in wRC+) and Wilson is experiencing a big park downgrade, but they are also very strikeout prone (22.6 percent). The K Rate projection pushes him up in our model but it comes with risk. Jaime Garcia (STL) rates really well in our model but his price point is highly volatile around the industry. On DraftKings, he’s expensive ($9,600) while on FanDuel ($8,200) he’s affordable. If you can find a price tag similar to the Iwakuma-Zimmermann-Cain group, he’s our preferred option. James Shields (SD) is a viable secondary option as well, but he’s generally priced right. The Mets offense added some depth but they still project as a below average unit overall. Felix Doubront (TOR) is interesting as a very cheap tournament play. The Blue Jays should shower him with run support and he gets the benefit of facing a National League team. The Phillies rank 13th in wRC+ against LHP with an above average K Rate but Vegas has handed them an implied run total of just 3.7 runs. Doubront has shown slightly above average K Rates in the past and has a good chance at a win. I don’t mind him in tournaments.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Toronto Blue Jays
The primary focus of our content. They’re very expensive and a full stack will cost you elite starting pitching but we recommend getting as much exposure as you can to this offense in cash games.
1) New York Yankees
2) Chicago Cubs
3) Pittsburgh Pirates
4) Houston Astros
The Yankees have the second highest team total of the night but elevated price tags make it difficult to squeeze them in cash games. They all represent excellent tournament plays.
The Cubs have been featured a bit more consistently in our content. A “bullpen game” for the team with one of the worst bullpens in baseball is a good time to attack. The Cubs have speed and power throughout the lineup but have really struggled of late which has helped bring down their price points. You can likely stack AND have exposure to top end SP, which is a nice recipe for upside.
I touched on the Pirates all rating highly in our model but price tags prevented them from a stronger presence in our content. This is the perfect recipe for a tournament stack. Throw in a positive park shift (which probably isn’t thought of as an elite park swap) and you’ll likely get Pirates with low ownership tonight.
The Astros are the last stack I’d consider in tournaments. They have power and speed and are primarily right handed towards the top of the lineup. They’ve lost a bit of their appeal against LHP without George Springer, but Altuve, Gattis, and Correa form a nice mini-stack and you can mix in Carter for additional power upside.
The other teams I considered including were the Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants. The Orioles face a homer prone righty who is backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the league. While the Giants get a RHP coming off the DL. The Giants are really strong against RHP (first in wRC+) but they do it in an untraditional way (less power and speed, more gap power). The Brewers have a good bullpen but the Giants always come with super low ownership for their skill set.
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.
ATL at BLT 7:05: A 10% chance of a delay to a widely scattered thunderstorm. Temps in the mid-80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind south-southeast 4-8 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind blows out to left to begin the game and is a 6 on the wind scale becoming a 5.
PHL at TOR 7:07: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps neat 80 falling into the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind south 4-8 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.
CHW at BOS 7:10: A 10% chance of a delay due to a widely scattered thunderstorm. Temps in the low 80s falling into the mid to upper 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind south becoming southwest 5-10 mph which blows out to left and then out to center. The wind is a 6.
KC at CLE 7:10: Dry. Temps in the low 80s falling into the mid-70s. Air density is a 7. Wind northeast 6-12 mph lessening to 4-8 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.
SD at NYM 7:10: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind very light (<5 mph) out of the southwest which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.
WSH at MIA 7:10: The retractable roof will likely be closed.
DET at TB 7:10: Dome.
NYY at TEX 8:05: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 90s falling into the upper 80s. Air density is a 9. Wind south-southeast 8-16 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows in from right-center. The wind is a 3 becoming a 4.
COL at CHC 8:05: Dry. Temps in the mid-80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind south-southeast 7-14 mph lessening to 4-8 mph late which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.
PIT at MIN 8:10: Very rough weather during the morning and into the early afternoon but by game time the weather should be dry. Temps in the upper 70s falling into the mid-70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind south-southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 7.
LAA at HOU 8:10: Retractable roof. A 10% chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm affecting the area. Temps near 90 falling into the low to mid 80s. Air density is a 9. Wind south-southeast 8-16 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 7.
CIN at STL 8:15: A 10-20% chance of a widely scattered thunderstorm causing a delay, low to no ppd risk. Temps in the low 90s falling into the mid-80s. Air density is a 9. Wind south-southeast 5-10 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.
AZ at SEA 10:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the upper 70s falling into the mid-70s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind northwest 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
OAK at LAD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the mid-70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.
MIL at SF 10:15: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 70s falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind northwest 10-20 mph lessening to 7-14 mph which blows out to right. The wind is an 8 becoming a 6.