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July 3 MLB DFS: Always Betts on Blackmon
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Welcome to July 3 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 3 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 3 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:49 Starting Pitcher
10:05 Catcher
13:06 First Base
15:28 Second Base
17:26 Third Base
19:37 Shortstop
21:24 Outfield
25:16 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 3 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

With Stephen Strasburg (WAS) off the main slate, Monday’s starting pitching options leave a lot to desire. Fortunately, it’s a Coors Field slate with other elite hitting environments in play, so the starting pitcher options we’re choosing from fit alongside the offenses we’d like to build.


At the top of the projections are Masahiro Tanaka (NYY), Marcus Stroman (TOR), and Jharel Cotton (OAK). Cotton and Tanaka are pitchers that are vulnerable to power (Tanaka – 2.08 HR/9, Cotton – 1.63 HR/9) and thus plenty of blowup starts but each draw favorable matchups as the Jays (22nd in wRC+ against RHP) and White Sox (26th in wRC+ against RHP) are RH heavy lineups that have struggled against RHP. Tanaka is fully priced which makes him a borderline tournament play at best, while Cotton is intriguing on both sites thanks to a more modest price tag. On a slate where the lowest implied totals against are all over four, Tanaka (4.2) and Cotton (4.2) are two of the better projected starters for run prevention. Cotton’s particularly attractive on FanDuel with a $7,400 price tag that allows plenty of room for offense. Stroman isn’t vulnerable to power but comes with a hefty implied total (4.8) against. Stroman’s priced similarly to Tanaka but in a tougher matchup against the second ranked Yankees in wRC+ (although a more watered down version).

After this tier, Adam Wainwright (STL), Rick Porcello (BOS), and Alex Meyer (LAA) represent the next tier. Meyer is the intriguing one with an above average K Rate (25.5 percent) and a modest price tag. The Twins are an average offense that has started to live up to their heftier early season K projections of late. While Meyer carries an annoying implied total against (five!), he’s a viable cash game target on DraftKings at just $6,900.  Porcello and Wainwright are simply not cheap enough to earn much excitement and neither carries big upside, so they land in limbo on a slate in desperate need of SP depth.

The final cheap starting pitcher that earns consideration in cash games and GPPs simply due to price tag is Andrew Moore (SEA). Moore’s been pushed aggressively through the Mariners system this year starting at AA (2.08 ERA in 34 ⅔ innings), then AAA (3.06 ERA in 53 innings) and then pitching well in his Major League debut last week. He gets the benefit of a strong home pitching environment (high 60s in Seattle and a big home park) against a weak offense (Royals rank 25th in wRC+ against RHP). The result is an implied total of just 4.2 runs which is consistent with most of the other top options on the slate and he’s just $5,500 on both sites. Moore’s floor is low because he isn’t bringing many strikeouts to the table (ZiPS and Steamer projecting below 7.0 K/9) but his skill-set is suited well for pitching in SAFECO (extreme Fly Ball pitcher – 46-49 percent FB Rates in minors) and the Royals rank 20th in ISO against RHP.

Given this slate has very little upside for SP (Alex Meyer our highest projected strikeouts at six), our goals are to find average Fantasy performances at attractive price points and let our offenses provide the upside. Everyone has risk, so embrace the price tags. As a result, Jharel Cotton, Alex Meyer, and Andrew Moore are our primary cash game targets on the two sites. In tournaments, Aaron Nola (PHI), Marcus Stroman (TOR), and Adam Wainwright (STL) are viable targets that work deep into games and provide upside through outs rather than strikeouts.

Catcher

Despite no top end starting pitching on the slate, the presence of Coors Field keeps us looking for value behind the plate. Russell Martin (TOR) still rates as one of the best per dollar values on both sites on account of his presence in the batting order. That matchup with Tanaka isn’t overly enticing, but he has struggled keeping the ball in the park this season (2.08 HR/9). At just $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings – he’s acceptable for use in any format.

Following Martin, Josh Phegley (OAK) and Martin Maldonado (LAA) represent lower hitting options that will both hold the platoon edge. If choosing between the two, our lean is to use Maldonado who not only has been better of late (35.5% Hard% in the last fifteen days) but draws a matchup with Adalberto Mejia. Mejia continues to evade our attacks, but at 4.91 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9, and a 5.40 xFIP, we’ll keep trying.

You can also look to save a bit and get exposure to Coors Field with Tony Wolters (COL), Devin Mesoraco (CIN), or Tucker Barnhart (CIN).

First Base

Mark Reynolds (COL) and Joey Votto (CIN) lead the way in terms of raw projection at first base. Reynolds is the better per dollar play, representing one of the top value options on both sites. The matchup with Luis Castillo is the epitome of boom or bust, as Castillo has shown plenty of strikeout potential in his first two starts but has also been wild and struggled with the home run ball. Votto is the more stable play, and while you could find a way to work him in, he limits your ability to bolster the rest of your offense. He is an excellent tournament option.

Hanley Ramirez (BOS) and Albert Pujols (LAA) are the next two most valuable, non-Coors options. Ramirez has been back in the lineup and will hold the platoon edge on left-hander Martin Perez. Though notoriously a ground ball arm, Perez has seen his GB% dip this season and he’s allowing nearly a 25% difference in Hard%-Soft% via FanGraphs. HanRam is priced a bit too closely to Reynolds for our liking for cash games, but he represents a viable tournament alternative.

Pujols is the cheap option of the group, priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel. He too will get the platoon edge against Adalberto Mejia, and has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. The savings are likely unnecessary, but taking the $3,300 in play on DraftKings will allow you to pay up at every other offensive spot. It may be worth it in cash games.

Justin Smoak (TOR) and Kendrys Morales (TOR) rate well in our model given their price tags. The park is favorable to hitters and Tanaka has been susceptible to the long ball, but it’s too difficult a matchup to trust for cash games.

Second Base

D.J. LeMahieu (COL) ranks at the top of the projections at second base. LeMahieu is the low upside guy at the top of the Colorado order, but he provides you access to the best lineup on the slate for just $3,900 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel.

Brian Dozier (MIN) remains far too cheap on DraftKings at $3,800. Alex Meyer is tough on RHB (.297 wOBA and .136 ISO allowed in last 209 PA), but Dozier carries so much stolen base and power upside that he’s a fine play given the Twins implied run total where it is.

Rougned Odor (TEX) and Alen Hanson (CHW) represent two more cheap options at 2B. Odor comes with the power upside against Rick Porcello in the sweltering Texas conditions. Porcello has upped his strikeout rate this season but has seen a dip in the GB% and has allowed more home runs as well. Hanson is not a high upside play by any means, but he comes at a near punt price tag on both sites and should top the White Sox order. On a slate where top bats in Coors Field are a priority, his salary could go a long way.

Robinson Cano (SEA), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), and Dee Gordon (MIA) are caught in a bit of a pricing limbo (not valuable enough, not quite enough upside) but each represent viable pivots where the chalk (LeMahieu) might not crush your soul.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) is far and away the top 3B option on the slate. Arenado will look to feast in the middle of the Rockies lineup that boasts the slates highest implied run total at nearly seven runs. Not only does he rate well in terms of “value” but he ranks as the second highest projected hitter on the slate.

Our strong preference is to find a way to jam Arenado in cash games, but for tournaments you might wish to look elsewhere to find some lower ownership. We mentioned the struggles Masahiro Tanaka has had with the long ball and Josh Donaldson (TOR) is just $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel.

Eugenio Suarez (CIN) is just $4,100 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel and will get the opposite side of the Coors Field game. Hoffman has had a great season thus far, but he’s pitched better than his peripherals indicate and he’s gotten lucky to have only started three of his seven games in Coors Field. In his last Coors start, he didn’t get through the fourth inning and allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks. We’d prefer to use Suarez versus LHP, but he’s shown a nice power stroke this season (.196 ISO) and will bring you low ownership and Coors exposure.

Adrian Beltre (TEX) and Miguel Sano (MIN) would be acceptable tournament options with prices in between Suarez and Arenado, and for cheaper, Joey Gallo (TEX) holds 3B eligibility on DraftKings. He doesn’t come with a good lineup spot, but a 38.2% Hard% in the last fifteen days and prodigious power is enough.

Shortstop

Trevor Story (COL) is one of the cheapest ways to get exposure to the Colorado offense at a weak position. Story has been a bit underwhelming this season offensively, but at just $3,700 on DraftKings he will be the most popular cash game play.

Xander Bogaerts (BOS) will rate similarly to Story on FanDuel and is also priced at $3,600, but he was scratched on Sunday. The environment is as good as it’s going to get for Bogaerts, someone who lacks a ton of pure event upside. He’s more than competent against LHP (.373 wOBA since 2015), but has posted just a .126 ISO in that time.

Given we’d prefer to prioritize spending elsewhere, you might look to save on FanDuel with options like Jose Peraza (CIN), Jean Segura (SEA), or Freddy Galvis (PHI). Peraza will get the other side of the Coors Field game and comes with some upside on the base paths.

Segura is the best player of the group, bringing power and speed upside to a matchup with Ian Kennedy, a fly ball prone arm that struggles to keep the ball in the yard. At just $3,200, Segura is the best value of the group on FanDuel and will help you differentiate a bit away from Coors Field.

Galvis is the cheapest option, just $2,800 against Ivan Nova. It’s not a super sexy pick, but he’ll come with a good lineup spot (2nd) and has posted a .142 ISO against RHP since 2015 – a decent number for a shortstop.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon (COL) is the highest projected hitter in our model and is another piece of the Colorado offense that you’ll be desperate to fit into all of your lineups today. Luckily, given the potential to build through two mid-low priced starting pitchers, fitting him in won’t be a problem. A rough go in the last fifteen days (12.5% Hard%) should be of no concern as the Rockies top the slate in implied run total and Blackmon brings you exposure to the very top spot in the order.

After Blackmon, a few more Coors Field options lead the way in the value column in Ramiel Tapia (COL), Billy Hamilton (CIN), and Ian Desmond (COL). All three will get you exposure to Coors Field and in the case of Hamilton and Desmond, bring you some upside as well. Though the power potential doesn’t come into play for Billy Hamilton, the threat at an extra plate appearance is alluring, plus although Hoffman has not struggled with his command this season it has been a gripe of his in the past.

Coors representation doesn’t end there though as both Adam Duvall (CIN) and Scott Schebler (CIN) rate well in our model. Each comes with a ton of power upside and the positive park shift to Coors Field will help in that department. Duvall is a bit pricier, and likely will be a better tournament play at low ownership but Schebler represents a potential cash game target at just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. In his last 500 plate appearances against RHP, Schebler has posted a .214 ISO.

Coors isn’t the only place you should be looking though, as Mookie Betts (BOS) and a group of others will take advantage of the heat in Texas. Mookie is coming off an insane performance and will hold the platoon edge on the contact oriented Martin Perez as the Red Sox hold an implied run total of 5.7 runs. His price tag puts him right alongside Charlie Blackmon, but he’s not an issue to fit in cash games. Shin Soo Choo (TEX) is just $3,600 on DraftKings and $3,100 on FanDuel. He’ll get to lead off on the other side of this game against Rick Porcello. Choo has been scoring hot, posting a Hard% over the last fifteen days of 40%.

Teammates Nomar Mazara (TEX) and Chris Young (BOS) will both rate well from a per dollar perspective as well, but unfortunately there are only three outfield spots to choose from.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

 

The Rockies have an implied run total approaching seven as they get to face a rookie starter who despite good stuff has allowed a lot of hard contact and struggled commanding the strike zone in his brief time in the majors. They are clearly the chalk and it’s a slate that sets up perfectly for big ownership on them. In cash games, we’re attacking the situation and in tournaments a full fade is difficult but viable. If mass-multi entering, we’re more likely to take an underweight position.

Tier Two

2) Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are the easy pivot in tournaments. They’re as expensive as the Rockies on both sites and come with perhaps even better offensive depth but they have the lower implied run total while facing the better bullpen, defense, and starter. They’ll be owned, but likely half the ownership of the Rockies.

Tier Three

3) Boston Red Sox

4) Texas Rangers

5) St. Louis Cardinals

The Red Sox and Rangers game in Arlington is the secondary place to pivot off the Rockies in tournaments. The Cardinals are the potentially low-owned contrarian target with all the other strong offensive environments eating up ownership. It’s going to be hot in St. Louis (high 80s, low 90s) and Jeff Locke is one of the weaker starters on the slate.

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