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July 30 MLB DFS: Fishing Up North
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Welcome to July 30 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for July 30 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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July 30 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:57 Starting Pitcher
08:22 Catcher
10:53 First Base
13:35 Second Base
16:03 Third Base
18:47 Shortstop
21:47 Outfield
28:43 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

July 30 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

We lack any elite SPs on this slate. Lance McCullers (HOU) was starting to enter that territory, but he hasn’t looked right recently, whether he’s battling fatigue or isn’t 100% is unknown. He’s a solid SP1 based on the seasonal peripherals (2.93 xFIP, great combination of K and GB rates), but we’ve docked his baselines due to recent performance: Since his brief DL stint, McCullers has not lasted longer than 5.1 IP, and he’s struck out just a combined 11 batters over his last three starts while allowed 17 runs. Admittedly the price tag on McCullers is very compelling on FD, but we’d still stick to tournament exposure with him.

As a result we’re left to choose from a mid-tier that definitely possesses upside, but very little safety. These options include Lance Lynn (STL), Jordan Montgomery (NYY), Taijuan Walker (ARI), and Drew Pomeranz (BOS).

Of this grouping, our slight preferences are for Lynn and Montgomery. We’re hopeful Lynn faces the ARI lineup that features 7 RHBs, as his wide splits make him an excellent pitcher to play matchups with: .264 wOBA, .105 ISO, and 26.7 K% against RHP. The Diamondbacks strike out at an above average rate against RHP. Montgomery hasn’t been as good as the fanfare (4.55 xFIP), but a solid 22.0 K% meets a Rays lineup that has struck out 26% of the time against LHP. Montgomery is also the largest favorite on the slate (-170) with the lowest IRTA (3.9). Neither Vegas mark is eye popping, but it’s something to lean on in this muddled tier.

Walker and Pomeranz are fine for tournaments. Walker’s game log has a bit more volatility overall, and he’s strung together five 20-plus DK performances in his last seven starts. Pomeranz is more consistent in terms of strikeouts (25.1 K%), but the Royals are a contact oriented team.

At a tier just below, both Vince Velasquez (PHI) and Luis Castillo (CIN) carry significant K upside. Velasquez was shelled in his second start back from the DL (granted a tough matchup), so we’d prioritize Castillo exposure first. The young fireballer is striking out 26.8% of batters faced, thanks to a 97.7 average fastball and 12.0 SwStr%.

If you feel like all the mid-tier pitchers carry risk and you’d simply like to save some money, both RA Dickey (ATL) and John Lackey (CHC) are sub-$6,500 dollars. Dickey faces the weaker overall opponent in Philadelphia, but Lackey, who has an IRTA nearly half a run higher, will face a swing and miss Brewers lineup.

Catcher

Russell Martin (TOR) received a night off a couple of games ago, so we’re confident that he’ll be in the lineup today. He’s our top per dollar value on both sites by a large margin, and on FD he’s just $2,600.

Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the best alternative at the position, but he’s expensive. We prefer him in tournaments.

Jonathan Lucroy (TEX) is a viable target on DK where he’s available, but he’s priced appropriately. The same can be said for Tyler Flowers (ATL), who’s priced similarly to Martin around the industry. Yan Gomes (CLE) will have the platoon edge in a good hitting environment, but he comes with a bad lineup spot. He’s a good tournament target with reasonable upside at a barren position. Salvador Perez (KC) will have the platoon edge in Fenway Park. He’s a preferred target of ours in tournaments.

First Base

Anthony Rizzo (CHC) is the top projected scorer at first base and second overall in this slate regardless of position (only trails Trout). Rizzo is in Miller Park (great hitting environment) with the platoon edge, and he’s generated a .386 wOBA and .248 VS. RHP since 2015. Rizzo is a strong cash game target on both sites, but the expensive price tag might have you looking elsewhere.

Freddie Freeman (ATL) is an obvious alternative on DK where he carries 1B eligibility. Vince Velasquez misses bats but he’s power prone (.173 ISO allowed to LHBs since 2015). Freeman is nearly $1,000 cheaper than Rizzo on DK.

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) will have the platoon edge in Chicago at a sub $4,000 price tag on FD. He’s viable in all formats. Eric Thames (MIL) is $3,400 on FD and has a phenomenal matchup for his power stroke (John Lackey has allowed a .185 ISO to the L500 LHBs he’s faced).

This route isn’t as necessary on DK, but if you needed to save more salary Matt Carpenter (STL) is really cheap ($3,400) and he’ll have the platoon edge. Albert Pujols (LAA) is the salary relief option on FD ($2,600 and in Rogers Centre facing a bad SP). He’s also cheap on DK ($3,200).

Mike Napoli (TEX) will have the platoon edge in Texas but he comes with an appropriate price tag. He’s viable in tournaments on DK. Justin Smoak (TOR) is pricey but the HHR is very high over the L15 (38%). We like him in tournaments against a SP that’s fading (Jesse Chavez).

Second Base

The middle infield is barren in this slate. We recommend going cheap at second base in particular, where Eric Sogard (MIL) and Tyler Saladino (CWS) are decent values. We’re only considering Saladino on DK where he carries SS/2B eligibility with a $2,700 price tag. Sogard leads off for the Brewers vs. RHP, and that coupled with a cheap price tag are the reasons that make him a decent value. Saladino has been hitting fifth vs. RHP, and Josh Tomlin is a reverse splits pitcher (.359 wOBA, .237 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015). We’ll keep an eye out on his lineup spot. 

Jose Ramirez (CLE) needs to be considered in tournaments despite being pricey. Ramirez is one of the few second baseman in this slate with reasonable event upside. He also has a strong context. Jonathan Schoop (BAL) is available on DK and he’ll have the platoon edge in Texas. He’s very expensive ($5,000) but we like him in tournaments.

Third Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) carries third base eligibility on both sites and he’s the top projected scorer at the position. He’s one of our favorite plays in this slate given his context and depressed price tag.

Josh Donaldson (TOR) rates as the second best value at the position on both sites, but we’re more comfortable playing him in tournaments than cash games at this point of the season. Thankfully, Donaldson has a matchup that could unlock his upside and Vegas keeps giving the Blue Jays strong IRTs in these matchups (5.4 IRT today).

We’re more comfortable with Manny Machado (BAL) in cash games at similar price tags. Machado gets the platoon edge in Texas and he’s facing a pitcher that doesn’t miss bats (Martin Perez has a sub 15% K rate this season and he’s also yielding less GBs).

Kris Bryant (CHC) is just $3,500 on FD. That’s a price tag worthy of cash game consideration given Bryant’s power upside. Adrian Beltre (TEX) is a fine target in tournaments despite the appropriate price tag. Wade Miley sucks (his xFIP has been above 5.60 in each of his L3 starts).

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (CLE) is expensive but reachable in a slate where you’re not paying up at SP. Lindor has a matchup against Carlos Rodon, who’s surrendered a .172 ISO to RHBs since 2015. Behind Rodon is likely the worst bullpen in the league now. Lindor is the top projected scorer at the shortstop position as well as the best value.

The alternatives behind Lindor aren’t great. Eric Sogard (MIL) and Tyler Saladino (CWS) are the cheap routes on DK. Elvis Andrus (TEX) is pricey on DK but he’s the best alternative to Lindor if you had the resources to pay up at SS. On FD, Freddy Galvis (PHI) is the next in line option to Lindor in terms of value but the price tag is appropriate. If you wanted to punt the position on FD, Addison Russell (CHC) is  a fine punt option on FD where he’s $2,500. Russell carries some event upside (10 HR this season – ZiPS is projecting seven more for the ROS).

Outfield

Mike Trout (LAA) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. Trout is facing Cesar Valdez in Rogers Centre. Valdez has limited experience at the major league level, but the data we have is pretty underwhelming (sub 17% K rate and a 4.97 ERA/4.77 xFIP in nine appearances). Trout is deservingly the most expensive hitter in this slate but getting up to him shouldn’t be much of a challenge in a slate where you’re not paying for aces.

Mookie Betts (BOS) is a reasonable alternative to Trout around the industry thanks to a depressed price tag.

Jose Bautista (TOR) and Kyle Schwarber (CHC) remain underpriced for their skills and context on both sites. Schwarber’s price tag on FD refuses to move past $3,000. If Brandon Guyer (CLE) gets a good lineup spot (preferably leadoff) against a LHP, he’s a cheap way of getting access to the Indians offense. Guyer has generated a .385 wOBA and .181 ISO vs. LHP since 2015. Mark Trumbo (BAL) is underpriced on DK. Since 2015, Trumbo has generated a .204 ISO vs. LHP and he’s in Texas today. Kole Calhoun (LAA) is cheap on DK ($3,100) and he’ll have the platoon edge in Rogers Centre. Eric Thames (MIL) carries OF eligibility on DK and we always love his power upside in decent matchups. Derek Fisher (HOU) has been  leading off with Springer on the DL and he’s particularly cheap on FD where he’s priced like a punt. Fisher is simply too cheap for the event upside he carries (21 HRs/16 SBs at AAA this season) and even though the matchup is a challenging one on paper (Verlander), the Astros have an IRT of five runs on the road.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Chicago Cubs

The deep Cubs lineup is finally starting to come around, boasting one of the highest deltas as a projected lineup over the past 15 days. They get a positive park shift hitting in Milwaukee. Davies has not allowed a run over his last two starts, but the peripherals aren’t anything to be afraid of.  

Tier Two

2) Cleveland Indians

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Colorado Rockies

5) Texas Rangers

The Blue Jays are the most cost effective stack, facing Jesse Chavez who has a Hard-Soft% more than double the league average, which is leading to an elevated HR/FB rate (18.6%) and ultimately a hefty ERA/FIP (5.35/5.53).

The Rockies are the best contrarian stack of this group as their 4.4 IRT is by far the lowest of the top two tiers, and that should deflate ownership. They’re also dead last in wRC+ against RHP as a team. However, they’ll face rookie RHP Erick Fedde making his MLB debut. He moved up to AAA for the first time this season and struggled as a reliever/starter (5.57 ERA, 1.29 HR/9, middling K rate).

The Rangers are only available on DK, and it’s possible we’re light on their ranking. They boast the highest IRT on the slate at 5.8, hitting in the Texas Heat (low 90s) against Wade Miley (5.39 FIP).

Tier Three

6) Houston Astros

7) Boston Red Sox

8) Baltimore Orioles

9) New York Yankees

The final tier cleans up the rest of the teams on the slate carrying IRTs of 5 or more. The Orioles are the best value in this tier, carrying an average DK cost much lower than any other top-10 stack outside of the Blue Jays.

 

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