Lorenzo Cain‘t Go Wrong
Welcome to my July 3rd MLB DFS Picks! There are 15 games to be played, but because of the holiday weekend, we see just 13 being held at 7pm Eastern or later. I’ll focus on those games, as I’m not so sure we’ll see the two earlier games come available on the many DFS sites.
**All stats are from end of Tuesday’s MLB action.
With a night lacking ace pitchers (excluding Kershaw), I’m going to look at Michael Wacha as my favorite pitcher of the night. He gets a nice matchup against the Padres who rank in the bottom five for wOBA (.293) and top five for strikeout rate (22.2%) against RHP. While Wacha is actually worse against right-handed hitters, he still maintains a very respectable .294 wOBA. This is a great thing for the Cardinals righty, as the Padres could load up on lefty batters and see a matchup that provides Wacha with an advantage.
Salvador Perez has killed southpaws in his career, and for that reason, I love him against Tommy Milone. His ISO shoots up to .191 from .141 and his wOBA goes up to .349 from .315 when facing left-handed pitching. Milone hasn’t been all that bad against righties, but he does give up 1.20 HR/9 against them, striking out 6.49 per nine innings.
There are two options I really like for this position tonight and their salaries are not on the same end of the spectrum. Paul Goldschmidt is the guy I have no problem spending money on at this position and it’s pretty clear why. He’s one of, if not the best hitter in baseball right now, and in his career facing a right-handed pitcher has not affected him. He’s sporting a .385 wOBA and .225 ISO in his career against right-handed arms, and faces a bad one (Kendrick) who strikes out less than five per nine innings.
The cheap guy I like is Jon Singleton. Singleton has limited at bats in his career, but I think he’ll be a great guy to use against Justin Masterson. Masterson’s career wOBA against lefties is .72 (.352) worse than against righties (.280). That number alone should give you good reason to consider him as long as he’s in the lineup Friday night.
It always feels right to use guys against Jeremy Guthrie. He is prone to contact (43 strikeouts in 82.1 innings) and has had major blowups in 2015. In his last seven starts, he has starts of 6 and 11 earned runs allowed. In his 15 starts this season, Guthrie has given up more hits than innings pitched in 11 of those outings. So, what I’m trying to say is that we should all be considering Brian Dozier. Over the course of his career, his wOBA against RHP is just barely over .300, but in 2015 it has skyrocketed to .369. He’s hitting everything right now and that includes anything Guthrie could possibly throw his way.
Jake Lamb has received plenty of action this June, and not surprisingly I really like him against Kendrick at home. He’s a much better hitter against righties, with a .317 wOBA for his career compared to .243 against southpaws. He hits consistently in the five-hole and has a great park factor working on his side. While, I wouldn’t pay up big for him, I think he’s a great option where priced fairly.
Marcus Semien should be in the lineup against J.A. Happ, and if he isn’t expensive he’s worth a hard look. The position is tough to fill with no real great middle-priced player to choose from. Semien is better against LHP than RHP to the tune of a .319 wOBA for his career. And while those numbers don’t scream “stud” to anyone, Happ’s numbers don’t either. I like the fact that Happ is giving up a .332 wOBA to RHB in his career to go along with a 1.40 WHIP.
I talked a little bit already about Milone against righties, and I want to touch on one more option against him here: Lorenzo Cain. Cain has a wOBA .25 higher against LHP (.338) than RHP (.313) for his career and has touched them up even better in 2015 (.405). He’s my favorite outfield option on the night.
With the way Anibal Sanchez is giving up home runs this season, it’s hard not to look at Jose Bautista as a great GPP option. His 2015 wOBA is low, but for his career it stands at .368. He has big power against both sides, and against RHP, his wOBA is .231. Sanchez is giving up 1.85 HR/9 to RHB and a .343 wOBA. Those are extremely startling numbers, and even though Bautista is away from home, I love this play for tournament games.
Chris Tillman is worse against RHB than LHB, but I still like Melky Cabrera in this matchup. He’s really starting to heat up with his average improving 14 points in the last ten games. This might be because of a three and five hit game, but it just shows what kind of option he currently is – a GPP option. Tillman has given up four earned runs or more in five of his last ten starts, and could do it again against this White Sox team, who has scored 25 runs in their last six games.